Top Pick:
South Florida/Pittsburgh over 51.5
Posting this pick early however unless there is a freak occurrence over night affecting this one, I am pretty confident that this game will go over. Starting with the coaches, both are offensive minded which I think is a key when looking for overs. Looking at the actual teams, South Florida has put up some big numbers already this year and Pitt put up on a pretty good number vs Iowa.
I think Pitt's performance last week vs ND was a bit of anomaly and they will be able to get their playmakers more involved in this game. Also, Pitt will be pretty inspired at home and on national TV. South Florida is again making noise nationally and will be looking to build on their early momentum. I look for the game to go back and forth and am not sure who will win but I do think the teams will score enough points to get the over 51.5.
Wednesday, September 28, 2011
Sunday, September 25, 2011
Recap 9/24 Picks
Well I was able to squeak out a small positive on Saturday despite an overall struggle on Saturday. The 5 star picks went 2-1 while I continue to struggle on the top picks.
My one 5 star loss was the CU/Ohio St under which I still contend was the right way to go but CU's special teams were so bad and the Buckeyes to their credit took full advantage and got the majority of the total themselves.
I have no idea what happened in the Maryland game. I flipped it on and they were already down 21-0. At least the other 5 star picks came through- one easily in Arizona St and one close in Clemson.
Looking at this week, some big conference matchups of unbeatens, Alabama at Florida and Nebraska at Wisconsin. I will of course look at all of the games and bring my best selections starting with the Thursday night game South Florida at Pittsburgh.
My one 5 star loss was the CU/Ohio St under which I still contend was the right way to go but CU's special teams were so bad and the Buckeyes to their credit took full advantage and got the majority of the total themselves.
I have no idea what happened in the Maryland game. I flipped it on and they were already down 21-0. At least the other 5 star picks came through- one easily in Arizona St and one close in Clemson.
Looking at this week, some big conference matchups of unbeatens, Alabama at Florida and Nebraska at Wisconsin. I will of course look at all of the games and bring my best selections starting with the Thursday night game South Florida at Pittsburgh.
Saturday, September 24, 2011
College Football Picks 9/24 Part 2
Here is my lineup for the night games:
5 Star Play
Arizona St -2.5 vs USC
Top Pick
LSU -5.5 vs West Virginia
Lean
Oregon Team total over 40 vs Arizona
Writeups:
The Sun Devils were looking pretty good and then had a tough game at Illinois. The Illini were able to put a lot of pressure on the ASU's QB and rattled their offense. This loss could be a blessing for ASU who I am sure put a lot of time in preparing against the blitz. USC has played well at times and lackluster at times and has snuck into the top 25. I look for these teams to flip flop in the poles as ASU will win and cover a close one in the desert.
LSU- I am pretty confident that LSU's defense is still underrated if that is even possible. Another impressive win on the road should help. WVU will compete and will probably start fast in front of the big home crowd but a spread offense leaving their offense line vulnerable will prove to be problematic over the course of the game.
Oregon- This games seems to be too easy as Arizona has been handled by other top teams (Okla St and Stanford) and there is not reason to think they can stop Oregon. However, I am a little leery that they might break out on offense sometime. Even if that happens, I don't see the AU defense stopping Oregon and the will put up more than 40 in this one.
5 Star Play
Arizona St -2.5 vs USC
Top Pick
LSU -5.5 vs West Virginia
Lean
Oregon Team total over 40 vs Arizona
Writeups:
The Sun Devils were looking pretty good and then had a tough game at Illinois. The Illini were able to put a lot of pressure on the ASU's QB and rattled their offense. This loss could be a blessing for ASU who I am sure put a lot of time in preparing against the blitz. USC has played well at times and lackluster at times and has snuck into the top 25. I look for these teams to flip flop in the poles as ASU will win and cover a close one in the desert.
LSU- I am pretty confident that LSU's defense is still underrated if that is even possible. Another impressive win on the road should help. WVU will compete and will probably start fast in front of the big home crowd but a spread offense leaving their offense line vulnerable will prove to be problematic over the course of the game.
Oregon- This games seems to be too easy as Arizona has been handled by other top teams (Okla St and Stanford) and there is not reason to think they can stop Oregon. However, I am a little leery that they might break out on offense sometime. Even if that happens, I don't see the AU defense stopping Oregon and the will put up more than 40 in this one.
College Football Picks 9/24 Part 1
Bounceback Week!
Here we go. I am looking for a big Saturday after last week. Here is the lineup including 2 five star picks on this post and one more coming later.
5 Star Sides
Colorado/Ohio St under 47.5
Clemson -2 vs Florida St
Top Sides
San Diego St +10
Toledo +2 and over 55 vs Syracuse
Maryland -9.5 vs Temple
Leans
Ga. Tech -7 vs North Carolina
Ok St/Texas A&M over 67.5
Writeups:
Colorado/Ohio St- I really like the under in this game. Ohio St's strength is their defense and now they are starting a freshman at QB. The fact that the game is at home adds some extra pressure on head coach Luke Fickell. I look for their coach to focus on field position, relying on their defense and limiting offensive mistakes in this game. Colorado is a work in progress and is very unlikely to light it up in this game. It probably won't be a very entertaining game to watch but should be enjoyable if you are playing the under.
Clemson- Great spot for Clemson to get a marquee win. The Tigers are always fighting for respect and they come into this game with momentum and are catching FSU off a let down situation. For the Seminoles, I don't like their QB situation, if Manuel plays, he likely will be limited and if the backup comes back in it will be in a situation where the Clemson staff will have game planned for him and will be ready to challenge him. I have seen many times over a year when a backup comes in mid game and plays pretty welll but then the following week, knowing they are playing and hearing all they hype comes out flat. I think that is pretty likely here and Clemson gets it done.
San Diego St- I like the Aztecs here. Forget the whole Brady Hoke factor, look back at Michigan against ND. They had trouble most of the game handling ND's run/pass game and ND left a lot of points on the table. I don't Michigan can count on getting lucky again and this will be another very formidable offense they will be facing. I am confident that SDSU will give Michigan all they can handle and can definitely win this game.
Toledo- Big swing game for Toledo. They really need to get a 2nd win to help their bowl eligibility. I think that their tough early schedule against Ohio St and Boise St will pay dividends when they go to Syracuse. The Orangemen have struggled a bit but will be up at home for this game. I think both teams will score but Toledo will prevail at the end and get the win.
Maryland- Both the Terps and Temple are coming off tough losses but in different fashions. Maryland made their game respectful and can build off it. Temple should have and suffered a really tough defeat in a game they should have won. I think their will be a big hangover effect for Temple and Maryland rolls.
Ga. Tech- I am going to jump on the bandwagon and look for the triple option to roll over an uninspired Carolina team.
OK St/Texas A&M- This will be a fun game to watch. I need a lot of points to get their but I think it will happen.
Here we go. I am looking for a big Saturday after last week. Here is the lineup including 2 five star picks on this post and one more coming later.
5 Star Sides
Colorado/Ohio St under 47.5
Clemson -2 vs Florida St
Top Sides
San Diego St +10
Toledo +2 and over 55 vs Syracuse
Maryland -9.5 vs Temple
Leans
Ga. Tech -7 vs North Carolina
Ok St/Texas A&M over 67.5
Writeups:
Colorado/Ohio St- I really like the under in this game. Ohio St's strength is their defense and now they are starting a freshman at QB. The fact that the game is at home adds some extra pressure on head coach Luke Fickell. I look for their coach to focus on field position, relying on their defense and limiting offensive mistakes in this game. Colorado is a work in progress and is very unlikely to light it up in this game. It probably won't be a very entertaining game to watch but should be enjoyable if you are playing the under.
Clemson- Great spot for Clemson to get a marquee win. The Tigers are always fighting for respect and they come into this game with momentum and are catching FSU off a let down situation. For the Seminoles, I don't like their QB situation, if Manuel plays, he likely will be limited and if the backup comes back in it will be in a situation where the Clemson staff will have game planned for him and will be ready to challenge him. I have seen many times over a year when a backup comes in mid game and plays pretty welll but then the following week, knowing they are playing and hearing all they hype comes out flat. I think that is pretty likely here and Clemson gets it done.
San Diego St- I like the Aztecs here. Forget the whole Brady Hoke factor, look back at Michigan against ND. They had trouble most of the game handling ND's run/pass game and ND left a lot of points on the table. I don't Michigan can count on getting lucky again and this will be another very formidable offense they will be facing. I am confident that SDSU will give Michigan all they can handle and can definitely win this game.
Toledo- Big swing game for Toledo. They really need to get a 2nd win to help their bowl eligibility. I think that their tough early schedule against Ohio St and Boise St will pay dividends when they go to Syracuse. The Orangemen have struggled a bit but will be up at home for this game. I think both teams will score but Toledo will prevail at the end and get the win.
Maryland- Both the Terps and Temple are coming off tough losses but in different fashions. Maryland made their game respectful and can build off it. Temple should have and suffered a really tough defeat in a game they should have won. I think their will be a big hangover effect for Temple and Maryland rolls.
Ga. Tech- I am going to jump on the bandwagon and look for the triple option to roll over an uninspired Carolina team.
OK St/Texas A&M- This will be a fun game to watch. I need a lot of points to get their but I think it will happen.
Thursday, September 22, 2011
NC State @ Cincinnati
While I would love to come out with a strong side on this game, after much deliberation I have decided to stay away tonight.
I think the line is fair and Cinci should be a solid 8 or 8.5 favorite. When playing Cinci you need to control their QB Collaros and if you do that then the Bearcat defense is pretty suspect and they are beatable. However if Collaros can get going then they have plenty of playmakers on offense and can light you up.
NC state has not done a lot so far this year and I am not really sure what their defense can do on the road. If I was flying a bit higher I would take Cinci but tonight I will just be doing some scouting for an opportunity later in the year with these teams.
However I will have a full winning lineup for Saturday so be sure to check back on Saturday AM and in the afternoon.
I think the line is fair and Cinci should be a solid 8 or 8.5 favorite. When playing Cinci you need to control their QB Collaros and if you do that then the Bearcat defense is pretty suspect and they are beatable. However if Collaros can get going then they have plenty of playmakers on offense and can light you up.
NC state has not done a lot so far this year and I am not really sure what their defense can do on the road. If I was flying a bit higher I would take Cinci but tonight I will just be doing some scouting for an opportunity later in the year with these teams.
However I will have a full winning lineup for Saturday so be sure to check back on Saturday AM and in the afternoon.
Sunday, September 18, 2011
Recap 9/17
Yiikes! That was a rough Saturday. Last week I had some bad breaks but this week just a bunch of bad picks.
Time to refocus and make it happen this Saturday.
Last weekend of most mainly non conference matchups coming up and I will be ready starting with a winner on Thursday night.
Time to refocus and make it happen this Saturday.
Last weekend of most mainly non conference matchups coming up and I will be ready starting with a winner on Thursday night.
Saturday, September 17, 2011
College Football Picks 9/17- Part 2
There are a whole host of games I like this afternoon. I will also comment on some of the "big" games eventhough I am not making an official pick on all of them.
Top Picks
Tennessee +10 vs Florida
Mich St +6 vs ND
Northwestern -5.5 vs Army
S. Carolina/Navy over 58
Leans:
Illinois -2 vs Arizona St
Arizona +10 vs Stanford
Northwestern/Army over 54
For Fun:
Oklahoma -3.5 vs Florida St
UCLA +3.5
Writeups:
Tennessee- The Vols have been getting better and although still young are showing promise. This pick though is more a go against vs. Florida. I have not been impressed with Florida since last year and with their new coaching staff they seemed to have gotten a lot of attention that is not necessarily deserved. I think the Vols will give them all they can handle and expose some of Florida's weaknesses on offense and defense.
Michigan St- Notre Dame needs a win, an ugly win, a lucky win, anyway they can get it. Usually that leads to tight play and less risk taking. I am not sold on the Spartans as a great team but they will come into this game confident that they can win. I think ND will play well but will take few chances and the final difference for either team will be a field goal.
Northwestern- Their has been a huge line move on Army this week which is a little suspect to me. Army played a real hard game last week against SDSU and came away pretty banged up. NU had an easy game last week and comes into this game pretty healthy. NU has not played a lot of option teams over the years so that is a concern but the NU head coach has taken it as a personal challenge to get his team ready. I think NU will be able to score and will get enough stops to get the cover.
South Carolina/Army- South Carolina can easily outgun the Navy team however we all know that Navy will not quit and will continue to come at the Gamecocks no matter what the score is. I think that this combo gets the game over pretty handily.
Illinois- Time for Illinois to show something after 2 cupcake games. Arizona St had a good game against Mizzoo but was not able to close. I think that spells trouble on the road and the Illini will continue to build off last year's success and get a close win and start to build some national respect.
Arizona- If ever there was a must win, all out effort needed in a game this is it. If Arizona does not leave it all on the field then this coaching staff is doomed. I think Stanford will win but it will be a dogfight and Zona covers the points.
Oklahoma- Not too confident in this pick but I agree with those who say Florida St is still a year away. Oklahoma is the better team and will handle the pressure in my opinion.
UCLA- Texas is still struggling enough that they will struggle on the road in this one.
Top Picks
Tennessee +10 vs Florida
Mich St +6 vs ND
Northwestern -5.5 vs Army
S. Carolina/Navy over 58
Leans:
Illinois -2 vs Arizona St
Arizona +10 vs Stanford
Northwestern/Army over 54
For Fun:
Oklahoma -3.5 vs Florida St
UCLA +3.5
Writeups:
Tennessee- The Vols have been getting better and although still young are showing promise. This pick though is more a go against vs. Florida. I have not been impressed with Florida since last year and with their new coaching staff they seemed to have gotten a lot of attention that is not necessarily deserved. I think the Vols will give them all they can handle and expose some of Florida's weaknesses on offense and defense.
Michigan St- Notre Dame needs a win, an ugly win, a lucky win, anyway they can get it. Usually that leads to tight play and less risk taking. I am not sold on the Spartans as a great team but they will come into this game confident that they can win. I think ND will play well but will take few chances and the final difference for either team will be a field goal.
Northwestern- Their has been a huge line move on Army this week which is a little suspect to me. Army played a real hard game last week against SDSU and came away pretty banged up. NU had an easy game last week and comes into this game pretty healthy. NU has not played a lot of option teams over the years so that is a concern but the NU head coach has taken it as a personal challenge to get his team ready. I think NU will be able to score and will get enough stops to get the cover.
South Carolina/Army- South Carolina can easily outgun the Navy team however we all know that Navy will not quit and will continue to come at the Gamecocks no matter what the score is. I think that this combo gets the game over pretty handily.
Illinois- Time for Illinois to show something after 2 cupcake games. Arizona St had a good game against Mizzoo but was not able to close. I think that spells trouble on the road and the Illini will continue to build off last year's success and get a close win and start to build some national respect.
Arizona- If ever there was a must win, all out effort needed in a game this is it. If Arizona does not leave it all on the field then this coaching staff is doomed. I think Stanford will win but it will be a dogfight and Zona covers the points.
Oklahoma- Not too confident in this pick but I agree with those who say Florida St is still a year away. Oklahoma is the better team and will handle the pressure in my opinion.
UCLA- Texas is still struggling enough that they will struggle on the road in this one.
College Football Picks- 9/17 Part 1
Road Test Weekend! ESPN is great at coming up with these labels. Another great day of college matchups.
Here are the sides I like today for the early games:
Top Picks
Iowa -3 vs. Pittsburgh
Penn St/Temple over 46
Boston College -7 vs Duke
Be back in a bit with the afternoon and evening games.
Writeups:
Iowa- The Hawkeyes like a lot teams got ahead of themselves in week 2 and had a lackluster effort against a lesser opponent and lost to Iowa St. I am looking for the Hawkeyes to bounce back in a big way against a respectable Pitt team. The Panthers are coming off 2 cupcake wins and have not seemed to hit their rhythm yet. Going into Iowa facing a fired up home team and crowd will be too much for the panthers to handle. The 3 points should be only a minor obstacle for the Hawkeyes in a resounding win.
Penn St/Temple- This is a nice spot for Temple to host a national power at home and make a good account for themselves. The Nittany Lions are a good team who were simply outclassed against Alabama last week. There is no better way to get past a beating like that than to score a bunch of points against a lesser team. However Temple will be fired up as well and will put forward a good effort and this game will go over 46 as both teams play well.
Boston College- Tough start for BC. However they are still a much more talented team than Duke. Coming off an 0-2 start, the Blue Devils are just what the doctor ordered for BC. Look for a pretty easy victory for BC and for their fans to settle down a little bit.
Here are the sides I like today for the early games:
Top Picks
Iowa -3 vs. Pittsburgh
Penn St/Temple over 46
Boston College -7 vs Duke
Be back in a bit with the afternoon and evening games.
Writeups:
Iowa- The Hawkeyes like a lot teams got ahead of themselves in week 2 and had a lackluster effort against a lesser opponent and lost to Iowa St. I am looking for the Hawkeyes to bounce back in a big way against a respectable Pitt team. The Panthers are coming off 2 cupcake wins and have not seemed to hit their rhythm yet. Going into Iowa facing a fired up home team and crowd will be too much for the panthers to handle. The 3 points should be only a minor obstacle for the Hawkeyes in a resounding win.
Penn St/Temple- This is a nice spot for Temple to host a national power at home and make a good account for themselves. The Nittany Lions are a good team who were simply outclassed against Alabama last week. There is no better way to get past a beating like that than to score a bunch of points against a lesser team. However Temple will be fired up as well and will put forward a good effort and this game will go over 46 as both teams play well.
Boston College- Tough start for BC. However they are still a much more talented team than Duke. Coming off an 0-2 start, the Blue Devils are just what the doctor ordered for BC. Look for a pretty easy victory for BC and for their fans to settle down a little bit.
Thursday, September 15, 2011
LSU at Mississippi St Pick
Looking forward to a good game tonight with a lot of athletes on the field making plays.
Top Pick
LSU/Miss St Under 50
Miss St +3.5
Writeup:
For those who enjoyed the NFL kickoff game last Thursday, you should check this game out as well as many of the players on these teams will be playing on Sundays.
Although both of these teams have been scoring a lot of points in their first two games, both teams are defensive and run oriented at heart and I think that will come through tonight. Miss St definitely get caught looking ahead last week against Auburn and did not take the Tigers seriously enough and paid the price. Meanwhile LSU started the season in very impressive fashion and took care of business last week vs a lesser opponent.
I am looking for Miss St to have a much better defensive effort than last week. Having a short week should work in favor of both defenses as each team's offense will have to focus on their basic game plans and there will not be as many wrinkles. More importantly, both teams take pride in defense and each team will be looking to prove themselves and I expect a lot of hard hits and big defensive plays when it counts.
I also think taking the points with Miss St is the way to go although it will not be easy. I expect both coaches to remain fairly conservative and not to take too many chances especially in the red zone. One reason Miss St came out flat last week against Auburn was that they were looking ahead to this game and I think in front of a raucous home crowd they will play inspired football and get the cover if not the win straight up.
Top Pick
LSU/Miss St Under 50
Miss St +3.5
Writeup:
For those who enjoyed the NFL kickoff game last Thursday, you should check this game out as well as many of the players on these teams will be playing on Sundays.
Although both of these teams have been scoring a lot of points in their first two games, both teams are defensive and run oriented at heart and I think that will come through tonight. Miss St definitely get caught looking ahead last week against Auburn and did not take the Tigers seriously enough and paid the price. Meanwhile LSU started the season in very impressive fashion and took care of business last week vs a lesser opponent.
I am looking for Miss St to have a much better defensive effort than last week. Having a short week should work in favor of both defenses as each team's offense will have to focus on their basic game plans and there will not be as many wrinkles. More importantly, both teams take pride in defense and each team will be looking to prove themselves and I expect a lot of hard hits and big defensive plays when it counts.
I also think taking the points with Miss St is the way to go although it will not be easy. I expect both coaches to remain fairly conservative and not to take too many chances especially in the red zone. One reason Miss St came out flat last week against Auburn was that they were looking ahead to this game and I think in front of a raucous home crowd they will play inspired football and get the cover if not the win straight up.
Sunday, September 11, 2011
Recap & Look Ahead
I'm not complaining just pointing out though that I have been on the wrong side of 3 very very back door covers- Wake Forest in week 1 and then Hawaii and Utah yesterday.
Initially I thought my luck was changing a bit in the Utah game when they overruled the TD on the end of the game however it was mysteriously awarded to USC several hours later. Really? Hours after a game is over someone is changing the final score of game? I have seen errors admitted but that was the first time I have have seen a game score changed after the fact and of course i had to be in the middle of it. Oh well, no big deal but very odd.
So the point is that hopefully I will catch some breaks going forward as these type of sides usually even out.
I took a quick look at the board and like some games right away. Also, we will see some unproven teams such as Illinois and Michigan St matching up with real competition. I will certainly have a side in LSU/Miss St on Thursday and one of my favorite games Tennessee & Florida matters again so I will be on that one as well.
Initially I thought my luck was changing a bit in the Utah game when they overruled the TD on the end of the game however it was mysteriously awarded to USC several hours later. Really? Hours after a game is over someone is changing the final score of game? I have seen errors admitted but that was the first time I have have seen a game score changed after the fact and of course i had to be in the middle of it. Oh well, no big deal but very odd.
So the point is that hopefully I will catch some breaks going forward as these type of sides usually even out.
I took a quick look at the board and like some games right away. Also, we will see some unproven teams such as Illinois and Michigan St matching up with real competition. I will certainly have a side in LSU/Miss St on Thursday and one of my favorite games Tennessee & Florida matters again so I will be on that one as well.
Saturday, September 10, 2011
College Football Picks- 9/10 Part 3
Getting ready for the night cap with a few final picks for today
Leans:
Notre Dame -2.5 (First Half) vs Michigan
Utah +8 vs USC
Writeups:
I expect ND to be very focused coming out of the gate in this game. Yes, the crowd will be loud and Michigan will be hyped as well but I think ND has a couple of factors in their favor...early. First Michigan won last year and they will be implementing a pretty similar game plan in this that ND will be ready for. Second, ND had a horrible game last week and everyone from the head coach to the players to the proverbial waterboy will be focused on playing better and we will see that right away.
By the time we get to the 2nd half, things might be changing back to Michigan's favor but I like ND to get the early lead at the half.
Utah- This pick is half for Utah and half against USC. I have not seen Lane Kiffin get the most out of the talent that USC has. Utah is an improved team since last year and will be eager to show that they can compete in the Pac 12. USC has a lot of potential so I would not go crazy on this side but I do like Utah to cover.
Leans:
Notre Dame -2.5 (First Half) vs Michigan
Utah +8 vs USC
Writeups:
I expect ND to be very focused coming out of the gate in this game. Yes, the crowd will be loud and Michigan will be hyped as well but I think ND has a couple of factors in their favor...early. First Michigan won last year and they will be implementing a pretty similar game plan in this that ND will be ready for. Second, ND had a horrible game last week and everyone from the head coach to the players to the proverbial waterboy will be focused on playing better and we will see that right away.
By the time we get to the 2nd half, things might be changing back to Michigan's favor but I like ND to get the early lead at the half.
Utah- This pick is half for Utah and half against USC. I have not seen Lane Kiffin get the most out of the talent that USC has. Utah is an improved team since last year and will be eager to show that they can compete in the Pac 12. USC has a lot of potential so I would not go crazy on this side but I do like Utah to cover.
College Football Picks- 9/10 Part 2
Time to move to the afternoon games:
Top Picks
Alabama/Penn St under 41
Hawaii +5.5 vs Washington
Air Force +1 vs TCU
Stanford -20.5 vs Duke
Leans
Cinci/Tenn over 55.5
Writeups
Bama/Penn St- Banking on both coaches trying to protect their rotating QB's by running the ball and giving them basic reads against two very good defenses. Penn St. likely will do what they can to keep it close and go for the win in the 4th quarter. If Bama can get the lead then they will go conservative and attempt to keep the crowd out of it.
Hawaii- I think Hawaii is pretty far ahead of Washington at this point of the season. UW defense and running games will need to be big if they are too win and I am looking for them to be playing catch up against a good Hawaii offense and underrated defense.
Air Force- Lots of folks are looking for TCU to bounce back but they will be facing a relentless AF team that is looking to get back in the top 25. Air Force has been building to get a big win like this over the last 2 seasons and will make it happen today.
Stanford- Why not? Unless Stanford just tanks this one, it should be a run away. Stanford is much more talented across the board here.
Cinci/Tenn- Two offense minded teams should get the over here.
Top Picks
Alabama/Penn St under 41
Hawaii +5.5 vs Washington
Air Force +1 vs TCU
Stanford -20.5 vs Duke
Leans
Cinci/Tenn over 55.5
Writeups
Bama/Penn St- Banking on both coaches trying to protect their rotating QB's by running the ball and giving them basic reads against two very good defenses. Penn St. likely will do what they can to keep it close and go for the win in the 4th quarter. If Bama can get the lead then they will go conservative and attempt to keep the crowd out of it.
Hawaii- I think Hawaii is pretty far ahead of Washington at this point of the season. UW defense and running games will need to be big if they are too win and I am looking for them to be playing catch up against a good Hawaii offense and underrated defense.
Air Force- Lots of folks are looking for TCU to bounce back but they will be facing a relentless AF team that is looking to get back in the top 25. Air Force has been building to get a big win like this over the last 2 seasons and will make it happen today.
Stanford- Why not? Unless Stanford just tanks this one, it should be a run away. Stanford is much more talented across the board here.
Cinci/Tenn- Two offense minded teams should get the over here.
College Football Picks- 9/10 Part 1
Full day of good games so I will start with the early games. Be sure to check back for the afternoon and evening picks.
Top Pick
San Diego St -9.5 vs Army
Miss St -5.5 vs Auburn
Lean
Toledo +17.5 vs Ohio St
Writeups
San Diego St- This team is still underrated since last season. They really heated up at the end of last season and have picked up where they left off. Even with losing a great coach in Brady Hoke, their new coach is a proven Mountain West winner in Rocky Long
With this game in particular, Army will struggle on both sides of the ball. SDSU has a superior passing game and SDSU has the benefit of facing an option team the week before so they will be prepared. SDSU might get off to a slow start with early kick time on the opposite coast but they will get it going and cover the number.
Miss St- I will bite on this one. Although I do expect Auburn to play better. Auburn's youth really was evident last week where players were out of position and the only reason they were able to pull off the win was their athleticism. This week, Auburn will be facing a veteran team which has equal athletic ability and Miss St will be able to exploit the Auburn mistakes.
Toledo- I think Ohio St will be in a bit of a letdown/look ahead mode to Miami next week and will have a bit of trouble getting up for Toledo. The Rockets on the other hand will be fired up for the chance to challenge their big in state rival and make some noise on the recruiting trail within Ohio. The buckeyes will win but Toledo will give them a bit of a scare and cover the number.
Top Pick
San Diego St -9.5 vs Army
Miss St -5.5 vs Auburn
Lean
Toledo +17.5 vs Ohio St
Writeups
San Diego St- This team is still underrated since last season. They really heated up at the end of last season and have picked up where they left off. Even with losing a great coach in Brady Hoke, their new coach is a proven Mountain West winner in Rocky Long
With this game in particular, Army will struggle on both sides of the ball. SDSU has a superior passing game and SDSU has the benefit of facing an option team the week before so they will be prepared. SDSU might get off to a slow start with early kick time on the opposite coast but they will get it going and cover the number.
Miss St- I will bite on this one. Although I do expect Auburn to play better. Auburn's youth really was evident last week where players were out of position and the only reason they were able to pull off the win was their athleticism. This week, Auburn will be facing a veteran team which has equal athletic ability and Miss St will be able to exploit the Auburn mistakes.
Toledo- I think Ohio St will be in a bit of a letdown/look ahead mode to Miami next week and will have a bit of trouble getting up for Toledo. The Rockets on the other hand will be fired up for the chance to challenge their big in state rival and make some noise on the recruiting trail within Ohio. The buckeyes will win but Toledo will give them a bit of a scare and cover the number.
Thursday, September 8, 2011
Thursday Night Pick Sept 8
Most of the football world will be watching the Packers and Saints which should be a good one however there is a pretty good matchup in college football with Oklahoma State hosting Arizona.
These teams played in an ugly bowl game in which the Cowboys won pretty easily and Arizona's streak of poor bowl outings continued.
For this game, I am taking the over 66.5 in a lean. The Cowboys will certainly put up points and I think Arizona will hang for most of the game doing their part to push the total over.
These teams played in an ugly bowl game in which the Cowboys won pretty easily and Arizona's streak of poor bowl outings continued.
For this game, I am taking the over 66.5 in a lean. The Cowboys will certainly put up points and I think Arizona will hang for most of the game doing their part to push the total over.
Monday, September 5, 2011
Week 1 Review and Week 2 Preview
Much like Notre Dame's opening week loss, my first weekend was not what I was hoping for so time to look back at what happened and start gearing up for next week.
After the first few weekends, I like to try to find that some teams that were not expected to be all that great and end up surprising and vice versa try to find some teams that were picked to do well but really are not that great.
Now that we have some data, here are the teams that made an impression on me.
Northern Illinois- Played really well with a new head coach and new system.
Miss. St- Looked very sharp and athletic across the board.
Wisconsin- Made UNLV look like they did not belong in the FBS
Northwestern- Solid play on both lines which is not usually the case for them.
Ball St- Surprise win over Indiana
Texas A&M- Like Miss St, looked very good in all phases, motivated.
Utah St- Although they lost, were very well prepared and executed offensively.
Here are the teams that have some work to do and if they can't turn it around will be teams to fade:
Notre Dame- Not sharp on either side of the ball and not mentally prepared for this one.
TCU- Their calling card defense was shredded albeit by a very good offense.
Purdue- Back up QB did not look good, struggled most of the game.
USC- Got the win but did not show much killer instinct or intensity in 2nd half.
Oregon St- Lost to Sacramento St, enough said.
Looking at week 2, here are the games that have caught my eye so far:
Mizzoo at Ariz St- ASU starts as a heavy 7 point favorite
Oregon St @ Wisc- Will the Beavers bounce back and Wiscy let down? or will it be a blowout?
Miss St @ Auburn- same as above
Cinci @ Tenn- One team will be 2-0 and feeling good about themselves
Utah @ USC- The Utes open Pac 12 play with a chance to make an impression on the road.
After the first few weekends, I like to try to find that some teams that were not expected to be all that great and end up surprising and vice versa try to find some teams that were picked to do well but really are not that great.
Now that we have some data, here are the teams that made an impression on me.
Northern Illinois- Played really well with a new head coach and new system.
Miss. St- Looked very sharp and athletic across the board.
Wisconsin- Made UNLV look like they did not belong in the FBS
Northwestern- Solid play on both lines which is not usually the case for them.
Ball St- Surprise win over Indiana
Texas A&M- Like Miss St, looked very good in all phases, motivated.
Utah St- Although they lost, were very well prepared and executed offensively.
Here are the teams that have some work to do and if they can't turn it around will be teams to fade:
Notre Dame- Not sharp on either side of the ball and not mentally prepared for this one.
TCU- Their calling card defense was shredded albeit by a very good offense.
Purdue- Back up QB did not look good, struggled most of the game.
USC- Got the win but did not show much killer instinct or intensity in 2nd half.
Oregon St- Lost to Sacramento St, enough said.
Looking at week 2, here are the games that have caught my eye so far:
Mizzoo at Ariz St- ASU starts as a heavy 7 point favorite
Oregon St @ Wisc- Will the Beavers bounce back and Wiscy let down? or will it be a blowout?
Miss St @ Auburn- same as above
Cinci @ Tenn- One team will be 2-0 and feeling good about themselves
Utah @ USC- The Utes open Pac 12 play with a chance to make an impression on the road.
Saturday, September 3, 2011
College Football Sep 3 Picks Part 2
Nice night ahead with some good matchups.
Top Picks
Boise St -3 vs Georgia
Fresno St +10 vs Cal
Leans
Oregon -3 vs LSU
OK St -38 vs UL Lafayette
Writeups
Boise St- 3 Another year another year that boise has to prove themselves all over again. UGA is not the team they were when Richt took over and he had a lot of talent in place. Over the years, UGA has not kept in the recruiting game and it shows in the results. Alot of folks are thinking that Georgia has the superior athletes vs Boise but I think it is pretty even and they have a clear advantage at QB. In another tough game, Boise will pull in this one.
Fresno St +10- Tough spot for Cal in this one. It's a home game but they are at a neutral field which will be full of Bulldog fans. Cal has been underachieving and I think the Bulldogs will give them all they can handle.
Oregon -3 - I liked Oregon even before the LSU player trouble. I think there offense will be able to get untracked vs LSU before LSU's offense will get it going. This will be back and forth and it will come down to 4th quarter execution and I think Oregon will have the edge there.
Ok St- Huge mismatch, the only question on this one will be when the OK St coach Gundy eases off the gas. The Cowboys could win by 60 plus points if they decide to make a big statement.
Top Picks
Boise St -3 vs Georgia
Fresno St +10 vs Cal
Leans
Oregon -3 vs LSU
OK St -38 vs UL Lafayette
Writeups
Boise St- 3 Another year another year that boise has to prove themselves all over again. UGA is not the team they were when Richt took over and he had a lot of talent in place. Over the years, UGA has not kept in the recruiting game and it shows in the results. Alot of folks are thinking that Georgia has the superior athletes vs Boise but I think it is pretty even and they have a clear advantage at QB. In another tough game, Boise will pull in this one.
Fresno St +10- Tough spot for Cal in this one. It's a home game but they are at a neutral field which will be full of Bulldog fans. Cal has been underachieving and I think the Bulldogs will give them all they can handle.
Oregon -3 - I liked Oregon even before the LSU player trouble. I think there offense will be able to get untracked vs LSU before LSU's offense will get it going. This will be back and forth and it will come down to 4th quarter execution and I think Oregon will have the edge there.
Ok St- Huge mismatch, the only question on this one will be when the OK St coach Gundy eases off the gas. The Cowboys could win by 60 plus points if they decide to make a big statement.
College Football Sept 3 Part 1
Here is my lineup for the games this AM and early afternoon.
Top Picks
Auburn -23.5 vs Utah St
Leans
Northwestern +3.5 vs Boston College
UCLA/Houston over 61.5
Writeups
Auburn -23.5- Yes, Auburn has many new faces including the QB replacing last year's best player in Cam Newton. Utah St is in a similar spot however replacing their QB who was very important to their offense. Essentially this one boils down to the overall talent level of the two programs. Auburn's skill level is just a lot higher across the board than Utah St and 23.5 does not seem like a steep hill to climb.
Northwestern +3.5- I have been going back and forth on this one. This one boils down to NU having their main playmaker available in Persa while BC does not have their RB in Ball. Persa will be limited however when it counts, he will make the big play that the Cats need.
Initially I liked UCLA however Houston looks to be pretty dangerous. I think UCLA will be able to score with Cougars and I see the 2nd half being pretty explosive so I think the over is the way to go.
Top Picks
Auburn -23.5 vs Utah St
Leans
Northwestern +3.5 vs Boston College
UCLA/Houston over 61.5
Writeups
Auburn -23.5- Yes, Auburn has many new faces including the QB replacing last year's best player in Cam Newton. Utah St is in a similar spot however replacing their QB who was very important to their offense. Essentially this one boils down to the overall talent level of the two programs. Auburn's skill level is just a lot higher across the board than Utah St and 23.5 does not seem like a steep hill to climb.
Northwestern +3.5- I have been going back and forth on this one. This one boils down to NU having their main playmaker available in Persa while BC does not have their RB in Ball. Persa will be limited however when it counts, he will make the big play that the Cats need.
Initially I liked UCLA however Houston looks to be pretty dangerous. I think UCLA will be able to score with Cougars and I see the 2nd half being pretty explosive so I think the over is the way to go.
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