Here are the rest of my plays today.
5 Star Pick
Miami -5 vs Duke
Top Picks
Cincinnati +17 vs Ohio St
LSU/NM St over 56
Leans:
North Carolina/Clemson under 65
Illinois +21.5 vs Nebraska
Miami- This is pretty much as system play. Duke is rolling, cracked the polls and has looked awesome. Miami has lost at L'ville and Nebraska and looked pretty inept doing so. If you ask college fans who is the better team, most everyone will say Duke...yet Miami is the favorite. I will roll with Vegas on this one and pound the Hurricanes.
Cincinnati- Nice spot for Cincinnati to try to steal one here. They probably will lose by 7-10 points but are confident enough and talented enough to make the Buckeyes sweat for most of the game and 17 points are more than enough.
LSU- We have been seeing this mismatches turning ugly with the favorites covering the overs by themselves. I am looking for LSU to follow suit.
North Carolina/Clemson- Battle of two unmotivated teams. Both teams had brutal losses last week and I expect them to show their hangovers and not score much in this game.
Illinois- This is a play against Nebraska. The Huskers laid it all out there last week in an impressive game against Miami. Like their effort against McNeeese state, I am expecting them to be very flat tonight and the Illini will squeak by with the cover.
Saturday, September 27, 2014
College Football Picks 9/27 Part 1
Here are my early picks. Make sure to check back this afternoon for my 2nd round as well.
Top Picks
Arkansas +8.5/over 71 and Arkansas Team Total over 31.5
Tennessee Team Total over 20
Maryland/Indiana over 70
Leans
Penn St -10 vs. Northwestern
TCU -31 vs. SMU
Colorado St +7.5 vs Boston College
Arkansas- As you can see I am going all in on the Hogs today. I like that this game is on a neutral field and that although A&M has looked great, they have not been tested. Yes, they beat South Carolina however they definitely caught the Gamecocks napping. Arkansas has had dominant play from their offensive line and will stick to the run game even if they get down. I think they will control the clock and will bust several long runs. A&M of course will not quit on offense so the totals will fly over and I think this game comes down to the last possession so 8.5 points will be more than enough to cover.
Tennessee- Not a lot of pressure on the Vols hear. Worst case scenario they will get some garbage TD's if they are getting blown out but I like the Vols to open it up on offense, take some chances and to score in the 20's.
Maryland/Indiana- Both teams have had some nice wins and will be motivated to win this game. Both teams are offensive minded so putting up points will not be a problem.
Penn St & TCU- Both of these teams are playing teams that have disappointed. The only question is motivation and if Penn St or TCU play lackadasical and allow the dogs to hang around and gain some confidence. I think 2 blowouts is the much more likely scenario for these games.
Colorado St- Both teams will line it and play "smash" football. The question will be which team runs it better and if either team can stop the run. If either team has to rely on their passing game then it will go south pretty quickly for that team.
Saturday, September 20, 2014
College Football Picks 9/20 Part 2
Had a nice morning afternoon slate of games.
Going with a light card tonight.
Top Picks
Clemson +10 and Team Total over 21,5
Leans
LSU -7
Nebraska -7.5
Clemson- I am going with the Tigers in this one. Liked them before the Winston suspension as this is the first time in the recent history that they have been clear underdogs. They will face a fired up Florida St defense but will find ways to score and will be in this game to the end and score over 3 TD's.
LSU- I have gone back and forth on this game and settled on the Tigers. MSU has had talented teams before but have not gotten over the hump and won a road game like this. I think this will be close for a while but the Tigers will pull away and get the cover.
Nebraska- I am throwing out the McNeese St game as an anomaly and outside of that game Nebraska has played well. Miami is a continued work in progress and will not be able to win or cover in this one.
Going with a light card tonight.
Top Picks
Clemson +10 and Team Total over 21,5
Leans
LSU -7
Nebraska -7.5
Clemson- I am going with the Tigers in this one. Liked them before the Winston suspension as this is the first time in the recent history that they have been clear underdogs. They will face a fired up Florida St defense but will find ways to score and will be in this game to the end and score over 3 TD's.
LSU- I have gone back and forth on this game and settled on the Tigers. MSU has had talented teams before but have not gotten over the hump and won a road game like this. I think this will be close for a while but the Tigers will pull away and get the cover.
Nebraska- I am throwing out the McNeese St game as an anomaly and outside of that game Nebraska has played well. Miami is a continued work in progress and will not be able to win or cover in this one.
College Football Picks 9/20 Part 1
Well not a great effort last Saturday, feel good about these picks so hop on board.
5 Star Play
Ga Tech +7.5 vs Va Tech
Top Picks
Iowa +7 vs. Pittsburgh
Texas A&M -34.5 vs SMU
Florida/Alabama under 50.5
Leans
Duke Team Total over 37.5
Akron +9.5 vs Marshall
Virginia +14.5 vs BYU
Writeups:
Ga Tech- I am working the respect angle in this one. Last year Va. Tech had an incredible defensive effort vs Ga Tech's option and they did not miss a chance to pat themselves on their effort whenever they could. This year, Ga Tech has been a little lackluster but I like them to be fully prepared for this game. Va Tech has been up and down and I do think they will be over confident in their defense in this one so definitely take the points and sprinkle Ga Tech on the money line.
Iowa- The Big 10 has taken their lumps but I am looking for them to put together a strong road effort this week. Iowa has played really conservatively on offense and that has not worked. On the road, they should be able to escape the pressure and let it go more. Pittsburgh has won their games but not really in an impressive fashion. I like the winner of this game to win by 3 or 4 points max so getting 7 is more than enough.
Texas A&M- Uh oh, things are not going well for SMU and playing A&M is not the ideal opponent. I like Sumlin to continue to put his stamp on as the "king of Texas" with a blowout win here. 34.5 seems like a lot but don't be surprised if the final differential is in the 50's.
Florida/Bama- Florida's offenses has not been very impressive struggling last week vs. Kentucky. Alabama's offense has been a strength early and their defense is now coming on. Both head coaches are defense oriented at their heart. Those factors are add up to an under to me.
Duke- This is bit of a bandwagon pick. I like the Blue Devils to have another impressive offensive outing against an overmatched Tulane team.
Akron- The zips played Penn St. pretty tough and I expect them to bring their A game at home, Don't get too carried on the Zips though. I expect Marshall to come in a little over confident but if they come in focused then it could be a long day.
Virginia- Both teams have gotten off to solid starts and are looking much improved. These teams went toe to toe last year and I expect Virginia to approach this game expecting to win. They will bring a very respectable effort and easily cover the 14.5.
5 Star Play
Ga Tech +7.5 vs Va Tech
Top Picks
Iowa +7 vs. Pittsburgh
Texas A&M -34.5 vs SMU
Florida/Alabama under 50.5
Leans
Duke Team Total over 37.5
Akron +9.5 vs Marshall
Virginia +14.5 vs BYU
Writeups:
Ga Tech- I am working the respect angle in this one. Last year Va. Tech had an incredible defensive effort vs Ga Tech's option and they did not miss a chance to pat themselves on their effort whenever they could. This year, Ga Tech has been a little lackluster but I like them to be fully prepared for this game. Va Tech has been up and down and I do think they will be over confident in their defense in this one so definitely take the points and sprinkle Ga Tech on the money line.
Texas A&M- Uh oh, things are not going well for SMU and playing A&M is not the ideal opponent. I like Sumlin to continue to put his stamp on as the "king of Texas" with a blowout win here. 34.5 seems like a lot but don't be surprised if the final differential is in the 50's.
Florida/Bama- Florida's offenses has not been very impressive struggling last week vs. Kentucky. Alabama's offense has been a strength early and their defense is now coming on. Both head coaches are defense oriented at their heart. Those factors are add up to an under to me.
Duke- This is bit of a bandwagon pick. I like the Blue Devils to have another impressive offensive outing against an overmatched Tulane team.
Akron- The zips played Penn St. pretty tough and I expect them to bring their A game at home, Don't get too carried on the Zips though. I expect Marshall to come in a little over confident but if they come in focused then it could be a long day.
Virginia- Both teams have gotten off to solid starts and are looking much improved. These teams went toe to toe last year and I expect Virginia to approach this game expecting to win. They will bring a very respectable effort and easily cover the 14.5.
Saturday, September 13, 2014
College Football Picks 9/13 Part 1
2 winning weekends so far (albeit small last week). Here is #3...
Top Picks
Kent St/Ohio St under 48.5
South Carolina +6.5 and under 59.5
C. Florida/Mizzoo over 54
Leans
Bowling Green +7,5 vs. Indiana
Marshall -19.5 vs. Ohio
Texas Tech +1 vs Arkansas
Kent St/Ohio St- No need to rehash last week's OSU debacle. Kent St is not in a good spot here and has struggled to put up points against mediocre teams. OSU will be locked in on defense and will play a conservative offensive game. All in all that adds up to a yawner and an easy under.
South Carolina- Big spot for the Gamecocks here. They showed some signs of life in the win (no cover) vs. ECU last week. They are in the proverbial must win situation. Georgia had a great 2nd half and put away Clemson and is now considered a NCAA championship contender with a Heisman candidate to boot. USC has played UGA very tough at home during the Spurrier era and I like the Gamecocks to put that experience and confidence to good use in this one.
C. Florida/Missouri- Well, I might have been wrong about Missouri this year as they have looked solid so far. I expect their offense to continue to roll in this one. C. Florida had a rough first half against Penn St however they made a qb switch and played much better offensively. This should be a pretty entertaining game and the over will come in.
Bowling Green- I like the Falcons to cover the number in a pretty wild one. Both teams will score and I imagine throughout this game I expect to see both teams have leads, look bad and good and ultimately the game will be decided by less than six points by either side.
Marshall- This is a nice matchup of offense vs. defense. Unless a defense is truly dominant, I generally like the offensive teams. Over the course of the game, Marshall will get on track on offense and the Bobcats will not be able to keep up.
Texas Tech- I think T. Tech and Arkansas are pretty evenly matched and the home field advantage will make a big difference for the Red Raiders today. I think there is a little bias towards Arkansas since they are an SEC team but their talent is not elite SEC at this point.
Top Picks
Kent St/Ohio St under 48.5
South Carolina +6.5 and under 59.5
C. Florida/Mizzoo over 54
Leans
Bowling Green +7,5 vs. Indiana
Marshall -19.5 vs. Ohio
Texas Tech +1 vs Arkansas
Kent St/Ohio St- No need to rehash last week's OSU debacle. Kent St is not in a good spot here and has struggled to put up points against mediocre teams. OSU will be locked in on defense and will play a conservative offensive game. All in all that adds up to a yawner and an easy under.
South Carolina- Big spot for the Gamecocks here. They showed some signs of life in the win (no cover) vs. ECU last week. They are in the proverbial must win situation. Georgia had a great 2nd half and put away Clemson and is now considered a NCAA championship contender with a Heisman candidate to boot. USC has played UGA very tough at home during the Spurrier era and I like the Gamecocks to put that experience and confidence to good use in this one.
C. Florida/Missouri- Well, I might have been wrong about Missouri this year as they have looked solid so far. I expect their offense to continue to roll in this one. C. Florida had a rough first half against Penn St however they made a qb switch and played much better offensively. This should be a pretty entertaining game and the over will come in.
Bowling Green- I like the Falcons to cover the number in a pretty wild one. Both teams will score and I imagine throughout this game I expect to see both teams have leads, look bad and good and ultimately the game will be decided by less than six points by either side.
Marshall- This is a nice matchup of offense vs. defense. Unless a defense is truly dominant, I generally like the offensive teams. Over the course of the game, Marshall will get on track on offense and the Bobcats will not be able to keep up.
Texas Tech- I think T. Tech and Arkansas are pretty evenly matched and the home field advantage will make a big difference for the Red Raiders today. I think there is a little bias towards Arkansas since they are an SEC team but their talent is not elite SEC at this point.
Saturday, September 6, 2014
College Football Picks 9/6 Part 2
Here are the rest of my sides.
Top Picks
Stanford -3
Michigan St +13.5 and over 57
Leans
Notre Dame/Michigan over 57
Tulane +10 vs. Ga Tech
VA Tech/Ohio St under 47
If you did not see part 1, still have Colorado St and E. Carolina on tap as well. Big night.
Stanford- I am pretty confident that the Cardinal is laying in the weeds and ready to pound USC in this one. Not that I think this will be a blowout as USC is very talented however I think there is a big coaching edge to Stanford in this one. The big difference is Stanford is well versed in their playbook on offense and defense and USC inexperience with their new coach will be the difference. Look for Stanford to execute when it matters and get the cover.
Michigan St- I like the Spartans to go into this with the mentality that they can score points against the Ducks and they will not need to rely on their defense. Oregon will score as well however their defense will be the weak link in this one. This should be a fun game and considering taking the Spartans on the $line as well as they will be in the game to the end.
ND/Mich- Both these teams will do what they do bet and that is rely on their offenses to make big plays. There will be enough to get the over.
Tulane- The Green Wave had a nice showing last week on the road and are opening a new stadium. Ga Tech looked only semi impressive. This may be a sucker bet but I think Tulane will play with a lot of heart and hang close in this one.
Va Tech/Ohio St- Hard to see this game going over unless there are several fluke plays leading to TD's. Both teams will bring a strong effort and neither team will want to give the game away on turnovers. I will keep an eye on this and will turn it on in the 4th when the action should start to heat up.
Top Picks
Stanford -3
Michigan St +13.5 and over 57
Leans
Notre Dame/Michigan over 57
Tulane +10 vs. Ga Tech
VA Tech/Ohio St under 47
If you did not see part 1, still have Colorado St and E. Carolina on tap as well. Big night.
Stanford- I am pretty confident that the Cardinal is laying in the weeds and ready to pound USC in this one. Not that I think this will be a blowout as USC is very talented however I think there is a big coaching edge to Stanford in this one. The big difference is Stanford is well versed in their playbook on offense and defense and USC inexperience with their new coach will be the difference. Look for Stanford to execute when it matters and get the cover.
Michigan St- I like the Spartans to go into this with the mentality that they can score points against the Ducks and they will not need to rely on their defense. Oregon will score as well however their defense will be the weak link in this one. This should be a fun game and considering taking the Spartans on the $line as well as they will be in the game to the end.
ND/Mich- Both these teams will do what they do bet and that is rely on their offenses to make big plays. There will be enough to get the over.
Tulane- The Green Wave had a nice showing last week on the road and are opening a new stadium. Ga Tech looked only semi impressive. This may be a sucker bet but I think Tulane will play with a lot of heart and hang close in this one.
Va Tech/Ohio St- Hard to see this game going over unless there are several fluke plays leading to TD's. Both teams will bring a strong effort and neither team will want to give the game away on turnovers. I will keep an eye on this and will turn it on in the 4th when the action should start to heat up.
College Football Picks 9/6 Part 1
Here is my early card.
Top Picks
Alabama/FAU under 50.5
Ball St +20 vs. Iowa
Central Michigan +3 vs Purdue
East Carolina +15 vs. S. Carolina
Colorado St +9 vs. Boise St
Bama/FAU- How often does a team win by 10 points and yet be embarrassed by their performance. That is what happened for Bama and due to the high standard they have set for themselves. Their defensive effort was beat up pretty bad and no doubt that Saban and his coaches are not going to let that happen again vs FAU. I am looking for a shutout from the Bama defense today or at worst one TD which should get the under there.
Ball St- Both Ball St and Iowa had below expectation performances last week. I like both teams to be competitive in their leagues and get markedly better as the season goes on. I think Iowa will control this one but will make enough mistakes giving Ball St the opportunities to cover the big number.
Central Michigan- Purdue played much better than last year in their opener this year however you can see that they have plenty of holes to fill still. C. Michigan will come in expecting to win this game and has the talent to do so. I will be sprinkling some action on the CMU money line as well as I like them to get the victory today.
E. Carolina- this is a game that I had identified in my preseason research thinking that S. Carolina's defense would be a work in progress early in the season and their offense is generally not prolific. I was not expecting the Gamecocks to get trounced in week 1 so I think S. Carolina will be better prepared for this game then what I originally expected. Nevertheless, 15 points is too much to pass up on as the Pirates will come in confident and will put points up and cover the number.
Colorado St- In my world, CSU easily wins the eye test in this game. I think that Boise backers are going on reputation and Boise's past performance. Well I think that CSU will come into this game ready to and Boise will have trouble getting their confidence up. Boise's offense will need quite a bit of improvement if they are going to win by double digits and I don't see that happening this week. This is another game to drop some money on CSU moneyline as well and I will likely double up and take CSU in the first half.
I will be back with more picks including the high profile games.
Top Picks
Alabama/FAU under 50.5
Ball St +20 vs. Iowa
Central Michigan +3 vs Purdue
East Carolina +15 vs. S. Carolina
Colorado St +9 vs. Boise St
Bama/FAU- How often does a team win by 10 points and yet be embarrassed by their performance. That is what happened for Bama and due to the high standard they have set for themselves. Their defensive effort was beat up pretty bad and no doubt that Saban and his coaches are not going to let that happen again vs FAU. I am looking for a shutout from the Bama defense today or at worst one TD which should get the under there.
Ball St- Both Ball St and Iowa had below expectation performances last week. I like both teams to be competitive in their leagues and get markedly better as the season goes on. I think Iowa will control this one but will make enough mistakes giving Ball St the opportunities to cover the big number.
Central Michigan- Purdue played much better than last year in their opener this year however you can see that they have plenty of holes to fill still. C. Michigan will come in expecting to win this game and has the talent to do so. I will be sprinkling some action on the CMU money line as well as I like them to get the victory today.
E. Carolina- this is a game that I had identified in my preseason research thinking that S. Carolina's defense would be a work in progress early in the season and their offense is generally not prolific. I was not expecting the Gamecocks to get trounced in week 1 so I think S. Carolina will be better prepared for this game then what I originally expected. Nevertheless, 15 points is too much to pass up on as the Pirates will come in confident and will put points up and cover the number.
Colorado St- In my world, CSU easily wins the eye test in this game. I think that Boise backers are going on reputation and Boise's past performance. Well I think that CSU will come into this game ready to and Boise will have trouble getting their confidence up. Boise's offense will need quite a bit of improvement if they are going to win by double digits and I don't see that happening this week. This is another game to drop some money on CSU moneyline as well and I will likely double up and take CSU in the first half.
I will be back with more picks including the high profile games.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)