Bunch of plays for this evening. Here goes.
5 Star Play
Northwestern -6 vs Cal
Top Picks:
LSU/TCU Over 48
Wyoming over 17.5 Team points vs Nebraska
Washington -4.5 vs Boise
Missouri -38 vs Murray St
Leans:
Northwestern/Cal over 61.5
Baylor -28 vs Wofford
Writeups
Northwestern- You can scroll down and see my earlier post about the Wildcats. I think they will be a tough out all season and getting this game at under a TD is a great value. Cal will show some offensive spark but they will not stop NU consistently and their true freshman qb will make plenty of mistakes to make this one a laugh-er. I have the over small as well.
LSU/TCU- I am going a bit contrarian on this one. Both teams are known for their ferocious defenses and rightfully so. This year both teams will be stacked on offense and the QB's for both teams have something to prove from their seasons last year. I am also confident that there will be a defensive TD and a special teams TD which will help push it over.
Wyoming- Although the Huskers claim to be ready to better on defense. I am not expecting them to be dominant. Wyoming will score in the 20's in this one.
Washington- The unranked Huskies will pull the upset over the ranked Broncos eventhough in reality the Huskies are the favorite. The Huskies will use a stout defense and the raucous crowd to get the W and more importantly the cover.
Missouri and Baylor- Week 1 & 2, its always fun to look for a couple of big time mismatches. I have 2 here. Missouri will be taking no chances of not pleasing the home town folks and will run this number way up. Baylor is loaded offensively and will be able to score at will. I am downgrading Baylor a bit as they may pull their starters pretty early in this one but it will not matter.
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Saturday, August 31, 2013
College Football 8/31 Part 1
I will be easing into the day with a couple of early game picks with most of my action this evening.
Top Pick
Maryland -21 vs FIU- Maryland was the proverbial hot mess last year with too many injuries to believe. They have had a more stable offseason and training camp and seem to be in much better position heading into the season this year.
FIU has had some decent seasons recently however they are in a rebuilding mode with a new coach and new players. They will pose some dangers for Maryland but the Terps will not be afraid to run up the score in this one as they need to build momentum for an important year for their head coach who is on the hot seat.
Leans:
Temple +29.5 vs Notre Dame- The Domers will use game essentially as a scrimmage. They have several new players to work in and need to get ready for a very challenging schedule. I don't anticipate ND "leaving it all" on the field and to ease back in the 2nd half. Temple meanwhile will value every possession and will be do everything they can to make it respectable. This won't be an easy cover for Temple but they will get it done by the end.
BYU -2 vs Virginia- I can't pinpoint exactly what it is but I like BYU to have a surpisingly good season this year. They seem to be stockpiling talent but have not had a breakout season in a while. Meanwhile, Virginia continues to be ho hum. I don't see the increase in talent that they need to be an upper echelon ACC team and I expect them to lose this one at home.
Be back in a few hours with a big late afternoon/evening card. Also follow me on twitter for any halftime, live betting calls @swicatsides
Top Pick
Maryland -21 vs FIU- Maryland was the proverbial hot mess last year with too many injuries to believe. They have had a more stable offseason and training camp and seem to be in much better position heading into the season this year.
FIU has had some decent seasons recently however they are in a rebuilding mode with a new coach and new players. They will pose some dangers for Maryland but the Terps will not be afraid to run up the score in this one as they need to build momentum for an important year for their head coach who is on the hot seat.
Leans:
Temple +29.5 vs Notre Dame- The Domers will use game essentially as a scrimmage. They have several new players to work in and need to get ready for a very challenging schedule. I don't anticipate ND "leaving it all" on the field and to ease back in the 2nd half. Temple meanwhile will value every possession and will be do everything they can to make it respectable. This won't be an easy cover for Temple but they will get it done by the end.
BYU -2 vs Virginia- I can't pinpoint exactly what it is but I like BYU to have a surpisingly good season this year. They seem to be stockpiling talent but have not had a breakout season in a while. Meanwhile, Virginia continues to be ho hum. I don't see the increase in talent that they need to be an upper echelon ACC team and I expect them to lose this one at home.
Be back in a few hours with a big late afternoon/evening card. Also follow me on twitter for any halftime, live betting calls @swicatsides
Wednesday, August 28, 2013
College Football Picks - Thursday 8/29
We made it! College football is back on. I am ready for a full weekend of sitting on the couch, some pacing and beer.
Starting off with these games on Thursday.
Top Picks
Bowling Green/Tulsa under 49.5- I cited this game in my preseason research. Not much has changed for me. I do like Bowling Green's offense to come out and stifle Tulsa and on the other side of the ball, BGSU's offense will play conservatively and help keep the score down.
Utah St +2.5 ML +130 vs Utah- This is the first game when the lines were posted that jumped out to me. Utah St will be coming in confident and will take the game to the Utes. Look for a standout performance from Utah St's qb Keaton.
Vandy +3, ML +145 vs Ole Miss- A nice home dog to get the balance pointing in the right direction. Vandy had offseason problems however I do not think that their coach will let that distract them. They have a consistent coaching staff and a talented team. Ole Miss had a great recruiting class however I think they are at least a year away from becoming a force in the SEC. The Ole Miss qb is inconsistent and I like Vandy to force a critical turnover when to help seal the win.
Lean
UNLV +13 vs Minnesota- I loved UNLV at +17 but apparently so did the rest of the world. I think this will come down to the last possession to see if UNLV can get a back door cover. I think they end up losing by 10 but I will not be surprised if they lose by 17-20 with a chance to get the back door cover/push.
Will be back with a full Saturday lineup.
Starting off with these games on Thursday.
Top Picks
Bowling Green/Tulsa under 49.5- I cited this game in my preseason research. Not much has changed for me. I do like Bowling Green's offense to come out and stifle Tulsa and on the other side of the ball, BGSU's offense will play conservatively and help keep the score down.
Utah St +2.5 ML +130 vs Utah- This is the first game when the lines were posted that jumped out to me. Utah St will be coming in confident and will take the game to the Utes. Look for a standout performance from Utah St's qb Keaton.
Vandy +3, ML +145 vs Ole Miss- A nice home dog to get the balance pointing in the right direction. Vandy had offseason problems however I do not think that their coach will let that distract them. They have a consistent coaching staff and a talented team. Ole Miss had a great recruiting class however I think they are at least a year away from becoming a force in the SEC. The Ole Miss qb is inconsistent and I like Vandy to force a critical turnover when to help seal the win.
Lean
UNLV +13 vs Minnesota- I loved UNLV at +17 but apparently so did the rest of the world. I think this will come down to the last possession to see if UNLV can get a back door cover. I think they end up losing by 10 but I will not be surprised if they lose by 17-20 with a chance to get the back door cover/push.
Will be back with a full Saturday lineup.
Sunday, August 11, 2013
College Football Research Part 2
Down to 18 days til the first college games!
I have been busy studying up and gathering information and data.
I am going to look at a few teams that are under the radar that can jump up and pull a few surprises and a few teams that I think are overrated and may win their games but I don't think will do well against the spread and I will be looking to fade them.
Finally, I have a few new picks for week 1.
TCU- This is not a truly under the radar team however they fell out of the spot light last year with their QB Pachall checking out of the program unexpectedly. He is back now and from all accounts looks like he has straightened out his issues. With him running the offense, they are a dangerous offensive squad which will complement their stellar defense well.
I like TCU to give many teams including LSU all they can handle. Look for TCU getting points on the road and get ready to take the points.
Baylor- This is a talented team and they have confidence. I like them any time they are getting points.
Bowling Green- The MAC has gotten consistently better talent and teams steadily for the past 10 years. One negative on the MAC is that most successful coaches get better offers and the programs then need to rebuild. Bowling Green has about the most stable coaching staff and they have talent that fits their system. They will be a factor all year in the MAC and will be a team to take with small spreads. A real nice opportunity will be on October 12th when they travel to Miss. St. The Bulldogs will likely be struggling and the Falcons may be able to pull off the road upset.
Georgia Tech- I think this is a pretty big year for Paul Johnson. He has had success early and needs to show that he has the recruiting ability to compete with the elite in the ACC. This year, I think he has the offensive talent to run the option at a high level whereas the last few years he just did not have the right people at QB and RB. The big question is on defense. If the defense does not improve then be ready to take the overs (they will be high). Check the Va Tech game on September 26 to see if they are ready for prime time.
Northwestern- The Wildcats are pretty confident and no one seems to care. They will be a tough team to defend and their defense will be opportunistic. Teams will need to be prepared to play all 60 minutes against them and teams that are not ready to do that from start to finish will be unlikely to cover. A game I'm circling is at home on October 5th against the Buckeyes who will be coming off a tough game against Wisconsin. Grab the points in that one.
Stanford- Yes, they are highly ranked and will have big numbers to cover but don't let that scare you off. They will cover many of their spreads.
On the other side of the coin...
Air Force- As much as I root for this team to succeed, I think they will have a tough year especially against teams that are familiar with their offense. They don't have the clear cut leader at QB and if someone does not step up then their defense will not be able to hold serve and they will have several bad losses. Going on the road to Boise on Sept 13 will be rough.
Mississippi St- It's tough to keep with the Jones' in the SEC. Miss St has been slipping and if they get off to a poor start then the pressure will wear on the coaches and players and the ATS losses will pile up quickly.
Notre Dame- The Irish will win their fair share of games but they will have several inflated lines to deal with. Without Everett Golston they will struggle at the QB spot. They will be a good team but there will be many opportunities to fade the Irish spread wise. Be ready.
Week 1 picks continued...
Bowling Green/Tulsa under 47- Nice week one game. The low total with a usually explosive Tulsa team makes me think this game will go under. BGSU will be stout defensively and will not take many chances offensively.
Vandy +3 vs. Ole Miss- Vandy will be ready for this one. Mississippi can be a dangerous team as the season wears on but they will run into a buzz saw in week one.
Maryland -20.5 vs Fla Intl- The public is on this one and has pushed the spread quite a bit. FIU is pretty much starting from scratch and will struggle to score on a Terps team that has superior athletes.
I am still in research mode so more to come.
I have been busy studying up and gathering information and data.
I am going to look at a few teams that are under the radar that can jump up and pull a few surprises and a few teams that I think are overrated and may win their games but I don't think will do well against the spread and I will be looking to fade them.
Finally, I have a few new picks for week 1.
TCU- This is not a truly under the radar team however they fell out of the spot light last year with their QB Pachall checking out of the program unexpectedly. He is back now and from all accounts looks like he has straightened out his issues. With him running the offense, they are a dangerous offensive squad which will complement their stellar defense well.
I like TCU to give many teams including LSU all they can handle. Look for TCU getting points on the road and get ready to take the points.
Baylor- This is a talented team and they have confidence. I like them any time they are getting points.
Bowling Green- The MAC has gotten consistently better talent and teams steadily for the past 10 years. One negative on the MAC is that most successful coaches get better offers and the programs then need to rebuild. Bowling Green has about the most stable coaching staff and they have talent that fits their system. They will be a factor all year in the MAC and will be a team to take with small spreads. A real nice opportunity will be on October 12th when they travel to Miss. St. The Bulldogs will likely be struggling and the Falcons may be able to pull off the road upset.
Georgia Tech- I think this is a pretty big year for Paul Johnson. He has had success early and needs to show that he has the recruiting ability to compete with the elite in the ACC. This year, I think he has the offensive talent to run the option at a high level whereas the last few years he just did not have the right people at QB and RB. The big question is on defense. If the defense does not improve then be ready to take the overs (they will be high). Check the Va Tech game on September 26 to see if they are ready for prime time.
Northwestern- The Wildcats are pretty confident and no one seems to care. They will be a tough team to defend and their defense will be opportunistic. Teams will need to be prepared to play all 60 minutes against them and teams that are not ready to do that from start to finish will be unlikely to cover. A game I'm circling is at home on October 5th against the Buckeyes who will be coming off a tough game against Wisconsin. Grab the points in that one.
Stanford- Yes, they are highly ranked and will have big numbers to cover but don't let that scare you off. They will cover many of their spreads.
On the other side of the coin...
Air Force- As much as I root for this team to succeed, I think they will have a tough year especially against teams that are familiar with their offense. They don't have the clear cut leader at QB and if someone does not step up then their defense will not be able to hold serve and they will have several bad losses. Going on the road to Boise on Sept 13 will be rough.
Mississippi St- It's tough to keep with the Jones' in the SEC. Miss St has been slipping and if they get off to a poor start then the pressure will wear on the coaches and players and the ATS losses will pile up quickly.
Notre Dame- The Irish will win their fair share of games but they will have several inflated lines to deal with. Without Everett Golston they will struggle at the QB spot. They will be a good team but there will be many opportunities to fade the Irish spread wise. Be ready.
Week 1 picks continued...
Bowling Green/Tulsa under 47- Nice week one game. The low total with a usually explosive Tulsa team makes me think this game will go under. BGSU will be stout defensively and will not take many chances offensively.
Vandy +3 vs. Ole Miss- Vandy will be ready for this one. Mississippi can be a dangerous team as the season wears on but they will run into a buzz saw in week one.
Maryland -20.5 vs Fla Intl- The public is on this one and has pushed the spread quite a bit. FIU is pretty much starting from scratch and will struggle to score on a Terps team that has superior athletes.
I am still in research mode so more to come.
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