I will get started on some college basketball picks tonight-
Leans
Northwestern -6 vs Ga Tech
Illinois/North Carolina over 148.
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
Monday, November 29, 2010
11/29 NBA Pick
Lean
Miami -13 vs Wizards
Finally a team the heat can handle. Look for a much needed blowout win.
Miami -13 vs Wizards
Finally a team the heat can handle. Look for a much needed blowout win.
Saturday, November 27, 2010
11/27 Night Games
Two games to finish off the college games for this weekend-
Leans
Oklahoma St -2.5 vs Oklahoma- I will bite on this one and see if the Cowboys can finally get it done vs the sooners. Oklahoma has not been good on the road and I think the OK St offense is just too much.
ND +4.5 vs USC- Usually teams are excited to play Notre Dame to look for a signature win. This is a role reversal where ND is looking for their signature win against USC. Of course, the trojans have the talent but not the motivation and that will be difference here as ND gets the cover.
Leans
Oklahoma St -2.5 vs Oklahoma- I will bite on this one and see if the Cowboys can finally get it done vs the sooners. Oklahoma has not been good on the road and I think the OK St offense is just too much.
ND +4.5 vs USC- Usually teams are excited to play Notre Dame to look for a signature win. This is a role reversal where ND is looking for their signature win against USC. Of course, the trojans have the talent but not the motivation and that will be difference here as ND gets the cover.
11/27 part 2
Top Picks
Washington +7 vs Cal
TCU -43.5 vs New Mexico and TCU (Team) over 50.5
Leans
Utah -7.5 vs BYU
Florida St -2.5 vs Florida
Washington- I have done pretty well betting on or against the Huskies this year and I do like them in this spot. Cal, not surprisingly has done another slide however they still have a chance at a bowl. Washington has not been great this year either but they seem to be peaking at the right time. The big key here to me is the QB position. The Huskies have the big advantage as they have recently stopped trying to keep Locker in the pocket and have let him do what he does best and make plays. I look for that to continue as Washington easily covers the spread.
TCU- Do not look for TCU to show any mercy in this one as this is their last chance to cement themselves as the #3 team and not let any one loss teams jump them. It will be ugly.
Utah- has had their struggles over the last couple of weeks and have dropped quite a bit in the rankings but it has been a successful season and a win over BYU would make the Utes very happy. BYU has recovered from an ugly early portion of the season and beaten some lesser competition in the Mountain West.
Today though, the Utes will be able to use their superior talent and make BYU look like the team it was early in the season.
Florida St. – Not a vintage matchup for these two powerhouses but Florida is down and FSU has the home edge. I think the Seminoles will take advantage of their chance to beat the Gators and get a tough win and cover.
Saturday 11/27 Picks Part 1
I have a couple of small plays this morning, I will have some bigger plays this afternoon.
Leans
Penn St /Mich St Under 50.5
Syracuse/BC over 37
With Penn St and Mich St, I think both of these teams are running on fumes. It seems like each game they have been in has been a battle. Both teams have struggles at QB, Penn St due to inexperience and Mich St due to injury. I think both teams will rely on their defenses and be content to play the field position game. One team will end up making the crucial mistake(s) to lose the game but in the meantime their will not be a lot of scoring.
Syracuse/BC- It has been a real nice season for Syracuse and a decent season for BC considering all their deficiences on offense coming into this year. It is also a nice move for the schools to rekindle this former rivalry. I think both teams will come in and play loose and although they are defensive oriented teams, I think today their offenses will be effective. Their defenses have been carrying them and both are due for a letdown.
It won't be a thing of beauty but they will get the over.
Leans
Penn St /Mich St Under 50.5
Syracuse/BC over 37
With Penn St and Mich St, I think both of these teams are running on fumes. It seems like each game they have been in has been a battle. Both teams have struggles at QB, Penn St due to inexperience and Mich St due to injury. I think both teams will rely on their defenses and be content to play the field position game. One team will end up making the crucial mistake(s) to lose the game but in the meantime their will not be a lot of scoring.
Syracuse/BC- It has been a real nice season for Syracuse and a decent season for BC considering all their deficiences on offense coming into this year. It is also a nice move for the schools to rekindle this former rivalry. I think both teams will come in and play loose and although they are defensive oriented teams, I think today their offenses will be effective. Their defenses have been carrying them and both are due for a letdown.
It won't be a thing of beauty but they will get the over.
Friday, November 26, 2010
November 26th College Picks
Top Picks
Toledo -4.5 vs C. Michigan
Alabama -4 vs Auburn
Toledo- Similar to Miami, oh/Temple, this is a series that looks like it will be heading in a different direction than previous years. C. Mich has been ruling the MAC for a awhile and has beaten Toledo pretty consistently the last few years. Well hard times have fallen on the Chippewas and the Rockets have been improving all season. I look for the Rockets to have a pretty easy time as they accomplish a couple of things. Get revenge for the recent losses and continue to position themselves for a bowl appearance. The Chippewas get ready for the off season and look to start recruiting for next year.
Alabama- For me, this one comes down to coaching. Auburn has done well all year, letting the talent they have do their thing on offense and defense and when it counts, letting Cam Newton make a big play. In this game, they will have the pressure of seeing what Saban has game planned and then trying to adjust. I have not seen Auburn in that position yet and am not confident that they will be able to handle the pressure that Saban will throw at them.
Offensively, Bama should be able to use their multiple weapons to get first downs and even put more pressure on Auburn to make things happen when they do get the ball. All of this will wear on the War Eagles who will finally succumb to all the weight that has been piling up on their shoulders.
Toledo -4.5 vs C. Michigan
Alabama -4 vs Auburn
Toledo- Similar to Miami, oh/Temple, this is a series that looks like it will be heading in a different direction than previous years. C. Mich has been ruling the MAC for a awhile and has beaten Toledo pretty consistently the last few years. Well hard times have fallen on the Chippewas and the Rockets have been improving all season. I look for the Rockets to have a pretty easy time as they accomplish a couple of things. Get revenge for the recent losses and continue to position themselves for a bowl appearance. The Chippewas get ready for the off season and look to start recruiting for next year.
Alabama- For me, this one comes down to coaching. Auburn has done well all year, letting the talent they have do their thing on offense and defense and when it counts, letting Cam Newton make a big play. In this game, they will have the pressure of seeing what Saban has game planned and then trying to adjust. I have not seen Auburn in that position yet and am not confident that they will be able to handle the pressure that Saban will throw at them.
Offensively, Bama should be able to use their multiple weapons to get first downs and even put more pressure on Auburn to make things happen when they do get the ball. All of this will wear on the War Eagles who will finally succumb to all the weight that has been piling up on their shoulders.
Thursday, November 25, 2010
Turkey Day College Football Pick
Top Pick
Texas +3 vs A&M
One of my methodologies in making picks is trying to understand why the line of a game is what it is and take my cue from there.
This game fits that category. I imagine that your novice sports enthusiast who happens to be in Vegas and is making a bet would look at this game and say, "wow Texas stinks this year and A&M is pretty good. The Aggies are going to kill them." Somehow, I don't think it will be that easy for the Aggies and Texas is really the play that Vegas is telling us to take here.
Texas +3 vs A&M
One of my methodologies in making picks is trying to understand why the line of a game is what it is and take my cue from there.
This game fits that category. I imagine that your novice sports enthusiast who happens to be in Vegas and is making a bet would look at this game and say, "wow Texas stinks this year and A&M is pretty good. The Aggies are going to kill them." Somehow, I don't think it will be that easy for the Aggies and Texas is really the play that Vegas is telling us to take here.
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
November 24th NBA Picks
Feast Week continues...
Going to get my feet wet with the NBA.
Two leans:
Orlando -4
Utah -4.5
The Magic will be the latest team to take down the Heat with no Haslem in the lineup to defend Dwight Howard look for a big game for the big man.
Utah- always tough at home. NO is starting to show signs of coming back down to earth and will take a beating on the road.
Going to get my feet wet with the NBA.
Two leans:
Orlando -4
Utah -4.5
The Magic will be the latest team to take down the Heat with no Haslem in the lineup to defend Dwight Howard look for a big game for the big man.
Utah- always tough at home. NO is starting to show signs of coming back down to earth and will take a beating on the road.
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
November 23 Pick NCAA Football
Feast Week!
Say what you want about ESPN but they come up with some clever ways to hype up their programming. For me, this pick officially starts Feast. Week. I like to think of Thanksgiving as a practice for the bowl season where there are games about everyday to break down.
Tonight, I like Miami, Oh. +6.5- Each year it seems that a new team emerges from the MAC who has stunk for a while. Last year it was Temple, before that Buffalo, before that Ball St. so on and on. Miami has resurrected themselves pretty well this year after hitting some pretty low points last year.
I look for them to play tough against a Temple team that is just not quite as strong as last year and has struggled a bit vs. good teams on the road.
I like the points in a lean and will take a flyer on the $line as well +220
Say what you want about ESPN but they come up with some clever ways to hype up their programming. For me, this pick officially starts Feast. Week. I like to think of Thanksgiving as a practice for the bowl season where there are games about everyday to break down.
Tonight, I like Miami, Oh. +6.5- Each year it seems that a new team emerges from the MAC who has stunk for a while. Last year it was Temple, before that Buffalo, before that Ball St. so on and on. Miami has resurrected themselves pretty well this year after hitting some pretty low points last year.
I look for them to play tough against a Temple team that is just not quite as strong as last year and has struggled a bit vs. good teams on the road.
I like the points in a lean and will take a flyer on the $line as well +220
Saturday, November 20, 2010
November 20th Picks Night Cap
So far things are looking good-
Couple of picks for the night games to finish Saturday strong.
Top Pick
Notre Dame/Army over 50
I expect ND to be much better prepared for triple option against Army than they were against Navy and for their offense to continue to play well. However, I do expect Army to play very well in this especially on the offensive end. A win over ND (even a down version) would still be a watershed moment for this team. Expect a well game that goes over.
Lean
Miss St/Arkansas under 53.5- If the Bulldogs want to win this one, they will need to contain Arkansas, hold on to the ball and not give up the quick strike. At home, I think they will be able to follow that formula which then should bring the under.
November 20th picks Part 1
Top Picks
Wisconsin -4
Northwestern+7.5 and over 49
Cal/Stanford over 50
Wyoming -2.5
Leans
Cal +6.5
Colorado +2.5
Writeups
Wisconsin- This team has been flying pretty far under the radar, everyone has them ranked pretty high but they get almost no BCS consideration. A win here probably does not change the perception but it will probably continue to help their computer rankings. The reality is that Michigan has not stopped anyone and Wisconsin’s defense line will wreak havoc with Michigan’s timing on offense and Michigan will not win with their defense so look for a pretty easy Wisconsin win and cover.
Northwestern- Sure, we all know the novelty and ridiculous way the game is being played at Wrigley and that attention will be very beneficial for the red shirt freshman playing in place of Persa. I do look for NU to focus more on the run game and for them to throw more deep passes. This will end up being an unknown for the Illini defense who really won’t know what to prepare for. Illinois’ offense will be effective as well and will be able to score on NU. It will come down to the last possession but the final tally for either winner will be less than 7.
Cal/Stanford over- I was seemingly one of the few on the Oregon/Cal under last week and I think there are a lot of people looking for a repeat of that type of game this week. I expect the opposite. Stanford seems to be winding down on defense each week and have dodged quite a few bullets in their wins. Cal’s defense is hit or miss and likely will be a miss this week after laying it all out on the field last week. Cal’s offense will be confident coming into this game as well as they have the edge over Stanford in recent years. So I recommend not trying to outsmart yourself and get on the over.
Wyoming- This is more of a go against CSU. The rams have played a lot of young guys and the fact that this the last game for the Seniors does not matter to the freshman and sophomores nor does it appear that they are up for this rivalry game. I look for Wyoming to play with much more purpose and get a nice win to help ease the sting of a rough season.
Cal- Since I think this will be a high scoring game, their will be some volatility but Cal knows they can beat Stanford and will keep it close and a SU is not out of the question.
Colorado- As crazy as it seems, the Buffs are in still in contention for a bowl game. It was a great move to fire Hawkins early as opposed to waiting. That pressure is off the players and they don’t have to worry about what was inevitable. K-State is talented but not a team that is playing with much confidence. I think the Buffs play loose and K-State continues to make error and blows this road game.
Wisconsin -4
Northwestern+7.5 and over 49
Cal/Stanford over 50
Wyoming -2.5
Leans
Cal +6.5
Colorado +2.5
Writeups
Wisconsin- This team has been flying pretty far under the radar, everyone has them ranked pretty high but they get almost no BCS consideration. A win here probably does not change the perception but it will probably continue to help their computer rankings. The reality is that Michigan has not stopped anyone and Wisconsin’s defense line will wreak havoc with Michigan’s timing on offense and Michigan will not win with their defense so look for a pretty easy Wisconsin win and cover.
Northwestern- Sure, we all know the novelty and ridiculous way the game is being played at Wrigley and that attention will be very beneficial for the red shirt freshman playing in place of Persa. I do look for NU to focus more on the run game and for them to throw more deep passes. This will end up being an unknown for the Illini defense who really won’t know what to prepare for. Illinois’ offense will be effective as well and will be able to score on NU. It will come down to the last possession but the final tally for either winner will be less than 7.
Cal/Stanford over- I was seemingly one of the few on the Oregon/Cal under last week and I think there are a lot of people looking for a repeat of that type of game this week. I expect the opposite. Stanford seems to be winding down on defense each week and have dodged quite a few bullets in their wins. Cal’s defense is hit or miss and likely will be a miss this week after laying it all out on the field last week. Cal’s offense will be confident coming into this game as well as they have the edge over Stanford in recent years. So I recommend not trying to outsmart yourself and get on the over.
Wyoming- This is more of a go against CSU. The rams have played a lot of young guys and the fact that this the last game for the Seniors does not matter to the freshman and sophomores nor does it appear that they are up for this rivalry game. I look for Wyoming to play with much more purpose and get a nice win to help ease the sting of a rough season.
Cal- Since I think this will be a high scoring game, their will be some volatility but Cal knows they can beat Stanford and will keep it close and a SU is not out of the question.
Colorado- As crazy as it seems, the Buffs are in still in contention for a bowl game. It was a great move to fire Hawkins early as opposed to waiting. That pressure is off the players and they don’t have to worry about what was inevitable. K-State is talented but not a team that is playing with much confidence. I think the Buffs play loose and K-State continues to make error and blows this road game.
Thursday, November 18, 2010
Thursday 11-18 Pick
Lean
Washington -2
The dream stays alive for one of these teams tonight. The dream of getting to a 2nd or 3rd tier bowl but for a college coach that is much better than not getting to a bowl game at all. Not a lot of breakdown for this game but I do like Washington to have used the bye week to their advantage.
It should be a decent game and I like the Huskies to handle it.
Washington -2
The dream stays alive for one of these teams tonight. The dream of getting to a 2nd or 3rd tier bowl but for a college coach that is much better than not getting to a bowl game at all. Not a lot of breakdown for this game but I do like Washington to have used the bye week to their advantage.
It should be a decent game and I like the Huskies to handle it.
Saturday, November 13, 2010
November 13 Picks Part 2
Top Picks
Baylor +3 vs Texas A&M
S. Carolina +6.5 vs Florida
Leans
Alabama -13 vs Miss St
Oregon/Cal Under 62
Parlay Stanford & OK St
Writeups
Baylor- I like the Bears to bounce back this week after an ugly effort last week. This week though they will be catching A&M off an emotional win and will be ready for them. I like the Bears to win SU.
So. Carolina- This will be a tough task but I think this is the Gamecocks best chance to win the SEC east and they will play like it. Spurrier pulled one rabbit out the hat against Bama and I think he will figure out a way to disrupt the mediocre Florida offense. I think USC an get the win but I like them ATS for sure.
Bama- This kind of seems like a good spot for the bulldogs but I like Bama for 3 reasons. First they still have a big talent differential, 2nd Saban will not let them hang their heads and 3rd I have not seen Miss St do well on the road consistently. As long as Bama is not in a big let down mode, they will win handily.
Oregon/Cal under 62- I am actually going to wait to take this under until the last minute as I expect it to keep rising however that is what it currently is. The line is very strange to me. It started at 58 then of course the public has been betting it up. There has to be a pretty good reason that it started at 58. Generally Vegas does not make things that easy with high profile games so I am going take the under.
Stanford & OK ST- These are two teams that are just rolling along taking care of business. I think that will continue tonight.
November 13 Picks Part 1
Top Picks
Iowa -9.5 vs NU
Leans
Notre Dame +5.5
Ohio St -18 vs Penn St.
Syracuse/Rutgers under 41
Writeups
The public jumped right away on the 12.5 and moved the line down to 9.5 or so. I am not a believer that NU has the Hawkeye’s number and like the Hawkeyes to handle this pretty easily. The big difference in this game is the dominance that Iowa has on both lines. Looking at NU’s 3 losses, they were not able to get pressure on the opposing teams QB nor run the ball effectively. Iowa by far will be the best offensive and defensive lines that NU has faced this year. Home dogs can often represent a good value but not in this one. Lay the wood.
Notre Dame +5.5 vs Utah- Looking back at the preseason publications, this game shaped up to be a big one. Well the reality is that ND has been underwhelming to say the least and the buzz around the hiring of Brian Kelly has gone south. However in this case, the lack of expectations should help the Irish. Usually when a team comes to South Bend, there is a sense of a big game. However, Utah lost their place among the big boys last week, add that to the fact that ND is down in the dumps and it is difficult to imagine Utes getting up for this one.
I expect Brian Kelly to have his team focused and will not be surprised if the Irish get the win but will certainly cover.
Syracuse/Rutgers- I don’t expect to see a lot of offense in this one. Both coaches are defensive oriented and neither teams offense is overly explosive. I am not sure who will be victorious however I do imagine that the winner will hold the losing to team to single digits.
Ohio St- I had to chuckle when I saw the Nittany Lions talking about being upset about being big underdogs. Well it would help their cause if they actually went on the road and beat someone decent which we have not seen yet. They have played better lately but that was to inferior teams at home. The buckeyes are playing to solidify a BCS spot and have fallen a bit out of the public conscious lately. A big win and cover here gets them back in the mix.
Saturday, November 6, 2010
11-6 Nightcap
Night Games
Top Pick
Texas Tech +4.5 vs Mizzoo
Let’s look at what Mizzoo lost last week: the game, a shot at the national title, the big 12 North, a shot to win the Conference, A BCS bowl bid…it was a pretty devastating loss. Now they have to regroup and get up for a trip to Lubbock. Probably not an easy task. I think Mizoo has the talent to win of course but in college it is hard to get teams over a devastating loss in just one week.
Look for the red Raiders to get this win straight up but take the points to be sure.
Leans
Texas A&M +4.5 vs Oklahoma
UCLA +4.5 vs Oreg St
Colorado St +17
I am filing both these picks as Vegas knows something that I don’t know. On the face of them, it looks like easy money for the favorites. Oklahoma is a top ten team and A&M has not done much and UCLA has been nothing but a disappointment this season yet both teams are getting a lot of respect point spread wise.
I will take a flyer on these two and see what happens.
Colorado st- Granted SDSU is having a great year but I think SDSU is likely to be looking ahead for a chance to shock the world at TCU. CSU although does not have a great record, they can pull to .500 in conference and have had a challenging schedule which should help them prepare for this one. I like the points but don’t recommend getting too carried away.
11-6 Continued
Part 2
Two games to add
Leans
NU/Penn St over 49.5 and Navy/ECU over 63-
Going to parlay these games together.
Just to have a side
LSU +7
Utah +4.5
Saturday 11/6 Picks Part 1
Top Picks
Clemson -4 vs NCST
Kansas +8.5 vs CU
Leans
Baylor/Ok St over 73
Writeups
Clemson- Seems like year in and year out Clemson remains a pretty unpredictable team. I like them in this matchup because I think their d-line can handle the ever dangerous NC State QB Russell. When NCST has won, it seems like he has a dynamic game. I think the Clemson offense will be sharp at home but the defense will seal the win.
Kansas +8.5 vs Colorado- Yes, both of these teams are pretty brutal but each heading in a different direction. CU is leaving the conference and eyeing a move to the Pac 10 with a new coach next year. Kansas has suffered quite a bit of pain under Turner but do appear committed to him.
I think Kansas sees this as their best chance to get a conference win while CU just sees the inevitable changes ahead will not be highly motivated to cover the big number on the road.
Baylor/Ok St over 73- Here is a nice battle of two very underrated teams. Baylor’s QB has been solid but injury prone the last 2 years but has stayed healthy this year and has catapaulted his team into the to 25. You don’t hear too much nationally about OK st but they are loaded (as usual) on offense. 73 is a high number but I don’t expect many field goals attempts as these teams know how to put it in the endzone.
Clemson -4 vs NCST
Kansas +8.5 vs CU
Leans
Baylor/Ok St over 73
Writeups
Clemson- Seems like year in and year out Clemson remains a pretty unpredictable team. I like them in this matchup because I think their d-line can handle the ever dangerous NC State QB Russell. When NCST has won, it seems like he has a dynamic game. I think the Clemson offense will be sharp at home but the defense will seal the win.
Kansas +8.5 vs Colorado- Yes, both of these teams are pretty brutal but each heading in a different direction. CU is leaving the conference and eyeing a move to the Pac 10 with a new coach next year. Kansas has suffered quite a bit of pain under Turner but do appear committed to him.
I think Kansas sees this as their best chance to get a conference win while CU just sees the inevitable changes ahead will not be highly motivated to cover the big number on the road.
Baylor/Ok St over 73- Here is a nice battle of two very underrated teams. Baylor’s QB has been solid but injury prone the last 2 years but has stayed healthy this year and has catapaulted his team into the to 25. You don’t hear too much nationally about OK st but they are loaded (as usual) on offense. 73 is a high number but I don’t expect many field goals attempts as these teams know how to put it in the endzone.
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