5 Star Play
S. Carolina -3 vs Fla St.
For this pick, I a looking at the pretty big gap in talent between the SEC and the ACC. In Florida St, you may be tempted to think they have turned the corner and are ready to compete at the top level however they are still a ways away. South Carolina however did turn the corner this year and unfortunately did not play their best against Auburn and I think that works to the bettors advantage here.
I think the perception is that these teams are pretty close but the reality is that South Carolina competed at a high level pretty much the whole year while Florida St had moments but even in the mediocre ACC they struggled.
Look for a pretty easy win for the gamecocks in this one.
Friday, December 31, 2010
Sun Bowl Pick
Top Play
ND +3 vs Miami
It has been a tough season for both teams and although each team did not meet expectations it feels like ND is on a big upswing while Miami is going downhill.
It was funny to me reading the release the Miami was starting Jacory Harris and then they put a reminder out that he was the previous starter. It was not so long ago that Miami was going into Ohio St and there were the comparisons between Harris and Pryor. That is just a reminder how far Miami has fallen out of the public consciousness. Meanwhile it was not so long ago that ND lost to Navy and Tulsa and it looked like their season was going to be an epic disaster.
However Brian Kelly used a couple of off the field controversies to pull his team together while Miami could never get the same spark. I see ND continuing to improve while Miami will flush this season down the tubes and will struggle in this game as a fitting ending.
ND +3 vs Miami
It has been a tough season for both teams and although each team did not meet expectations it feels like ND is on a big upswing while Miami is going downhill.
It was funny to me reading the release the Miami was starting Jacory Harris and then they put a reminder out that he was the previous starter. It was not so long ago that Miami was going into Ohio St and there were the comparisons between Harris and Pryor. That is just a reminder how far Miami has fallen out of the public consciousness. Meanwhile it was not so long ago that ND lost to Navy and Tulsa and it looked like their season was going to be an epic disaster.
However Brian Kelly used a couple of off the field controversies to pull his team together while Miami could never get the same spark. I see ND continuing to improve while Miami will flush this season down the tubes and will struggle in this game as a fitting ending.
Thursday, December 30, 2010
Holiday Bowl
After giving this game some thought, I like Washington to come out strong but for Nebraska to take control at some point.
Here is how I am going to play it.
1st Quarter- UW +200
1st half UW +7
Total over 54.5
All top picks
Here is how I am going to play it.
1st Quarter- UW +200
1st half UW +7
Total over 54.5
All top picks
Dec 30th Bowl Picks
5 Star Play
North Carolina Pk vs Tennessee
Top Picks
K State/Syracuse under 47.5
North Carolina- This is a real nice opportunity to take advantage of an experienced bowl coach in Butch Davis against a virtual first timer in Derek Dooley. I think both teams are pretty even talent wise but Carolina has the edge at QB. When you are looking at bowls, coaching is the first key and QB does fall too far behind.
Neither team had a particularly impressive season however I think the intangibles are quite different for both teams. NC had the well documented problems and was able to keep things together. I believe that this bowl will be important to them as a validation of their efforts on preventing an implosion. Tennessee on the other hand really slumped in the SEC and has a long way to go to back to the top. This game means extra practice and some good publicity but they have no compelling reason to really want to win this game.
Put all those things together and NC will end up winning this game. Probably not a blowout but a solid double digit win.
K State/Syracuse- Outside of the fact that this game is played in NYC probably not too much to see here. I personally like defensive battles so I will enjoy the chess match for both teams defenses. I don't see much scoring happening unless the offenses are so bad that they allow defensive scores. I will go with the probability that both defenses play very well and the offenses grind it out and play a field position game with a few scores now and then.
Wednesday, December 29, 2010
Dec 29th Bowl Picks
Not the most attractive matchups today in my opinion but here goes.
Leans
Maryland -7.5 and over 68
Baylor- I went back and forth on this as there is not a lot of recent bowl history on these two teams. Ultimately, I think the location will play a big part in this game. There will be a lot of support for Baylor in this one. Illinois has not been a road warrior team this season and and not sure who will show up. Also, I think Baylor has the edge at QB and that will be the ultimate difference here.
Maryland- Hard to figure what the Terrapin mindset will be but I think they will play well for Friedgen and they are a much better team on paper than ECU and should score at will. However, there is a chance they will come out flat under the lame duck coach scenario so I am taking a cautious approach to this one.
Top Pick
Baylor pk over Illinois
Leans
Maryland -7.5 and over 68
Baylor- I went back and forth on this as there is not a lot of recent bowl history on these two teams. Ultimately, I think the location will play a big part in this game. There will be a lot of support for Baylor in this one. Illinois has not been a road warrior team this season and and not sure who will show up. Also, I think Baylor has the edge at QB and that will be the ultimate difference here.
Maryland- Hard to figure what the Terrapin mindset will be but I think they will play well for Friedgen and they are a much better team on paper than ECU and should score at will. However, there is a chance they will come out flat under the lame duck coach scenario so I am taking a cautious approach to this one.
Tuesday, December 28, 2010
Dec 28th Bowl Picks
Back from a short holiday break...
Top Plays
NC St + 2.5 vs WVU
NC St Team Total over 23
Missouri -2.5 vs Iowa
NC St- I like this matchup based on the QB. NC St's Russell has had some stellar games this year and I expect him to step up big in this bowl game and lead his team to the SU victory.
Missouri has been the better team all season. Unfortunately their losses were pretty high profile and sent them tumbling in the standings. Iowa pretty much dogged it in the 2nd half of the season and eventhough Ferentz is a good bowl coach, I think his teams falls pretty hard here.
Top Plays
NC St + 2.5 vs WVU
NC St Team Total over 23
Missouri -2.5 vs Iowa
NC St- I like this matchup based on the QB. NC St's Russell has had some stellar games this year and I expect him to step up big in this bowl game and lead his team to the SU victory.
Missouri has been the better team all season. Unfortunately their losses were pretty high profile and sent them tumbling in the standings. Iowa pretty much dogged it in the 2nd half of the season and eventhough Ferentz is a good bowl coach, I think his teams falls pretty hard here.
Wednesday, December 22, 2010
Dec 22nd Bowl, College and NBA Picks
Las Vegas Bowl-
Lean
Utah +9.5 first half vs Boise St- I think Utah will be well prepared for this one and can hang with the Broncos...for the first half. After that I am not so sure.
College Hoops
Top Pick
Illinois -1 vs Mizzoo- Should be a good time for the Illini to show off their athleticism vs Mizzoo
Lean
Ill/Mizzoo over 148- Expect and up and down game and threes to be falling.
NBA
Lean
Clippers +1 vs Rockets- The Clippers are coming together nicely. Look for a home win.
Lean
Utah +9.5 first half vs Boise St- I think Utah will be well prepared for this one and can hang with the Broncos...for the first half. After that I am not so sure.
College Hoops
Top Pick
Illinois -1 vs Mizzoo- Should be a good time for the Illini to show off their athleticism vs Mizzoo
Lean
Ill/Mizzoo over 148- Expect and up and down game and threes to be falling.
NBA
Lean
Clippers +1 vs Rockets- The Clippers are coming together nicely. Look for a home win.
Tuesday, December 21, 2010
Beef O'Brady Bowl Pick
Top Pick
L'Ville & S. Miss Under 57.5
I like this game to go under based on the coaching staffs of the schools. Both teams are defensive oriented and their first piece of business will be to stop the other teams and then worry about scoring second. Also, in reality neither team has a highly developed offense.
L'Ville & S. Miss Under 57.5
I like this game to go under based on the coaching staffs of the schools. Both teams are defensive oriented and their first piece of business will be to stop the other teams and then worry about scoring second. Also, in reality neither team has a highly developed offense.
Saturday, December 18, 2010
Humanitarian Bowl Pick
Time to get the bowl season underway!
Top Picks
Northern Illinois -1.5 and over 57
This should be a pretty competetive game with seemingly pretty evenly matched teams. I give the edge to NIU. They were really rolling along pretty well and then hit a speed bump in the MAC championship game. Since then they have had a pretty interesting with their coach leaving and a replacement in place. The players seem to have taken it in stride though and look to prepared. Fresno has had an up and down season and they have the potential to win this one but at the end of the game, I think NIU will make the plays they need on offense or defense and get the win in a game in which both teams put up points.
Top Picks
Northern Illinois -1.5 and over 57
This should be a pretty competetive game with seemingly pretty evenly matched teams. I give the edge to NIU. They were really rolling along pretty well and then hit a speed bump in the MAC championship game. Since then they have had a pretty interesting with their coach leaving and a replacement in place. The players seem to have taken it in stride though and look to prepared. Fresno has had an up and down season and they have the potential to win this one but at the end of the game, I think NIU will make the plays they need on offense or defense and get the win in a game in which both teams put up points.
Monday, December 13, 2010
Unofficial Bowl Picks Part 2
Here are some more early thoughts.
My real picks will be starting soon.
My real picks will be starting soon.
Arizona +6 – I like the Wildcats on the bounce back from last year’s horrible bowl loss against Nebraska. Ok St has a lot of talent but they definitely lost a great chance at an upper tier bowl with their loss against Oklahoma. I think the motivation edge goes to Zona.
North Carolina -2 A bowl win would be a nice ending for the Tarheels who have had a trying season. UT has had a few nice moments this year but really it has been a rebuilding season for them. UNC gets the win and cover here.
Washington +13 vs Nebraska- The first time out I had the over and watched Nebraska do the heavy lifting. Things have changed quite a bit since then. The Huskies had a strong ending and got a bowl bid while Nebraska was unable to close out the Big 12 title game. The Nebraska Huskers though have a coach with a very good bowl record and they will be prepared. Still, I like UW to cover the number.
Michigan St +10.5 vs Alabama- Each year I try to find a team that has gotten the short end of the stick when it comes to a bowl game and go with them. This year I like MSU in that role. They beat Wisconsin, lost only one game and won a share of the big ten yet no BCS game. I think that will keep them focused on winning this game.
TCU -3 vs Wisconsin- I love this game. The majority of the talking heads are talking about the power of Wisconsin and how they scored so many points their last few games. I am not impressed. They played the 2nd tier of the big 10 and caught NU without their QB. TCU meanwhile is now being downgraded for being in the Mountain West. I am confident that TCU’s team speed will be well suited to stop Wiscy defensively and offensively will be able to score on the Badgers.
NBA Pick 12/13
Lean
New Orleans +12 vs Miami- The Heat have been hot but this is a pretty spread for a talented Hornets team. I like the points.
New Orleans +12 vs Miami- The Heat have been hot but this is a pretty spread for a talented Hornets team. I like the points.
Thursday, December 9, 2010
College Hoops 12/9
Still gathering information but I like 2 favorites tonight
Top Pick
Xavier -2 vs Butler- should be a raucous crowd and Xavier handles a weakend Butler team at home.
Lean
Georgetown -1.5 vs Temple- Too much talent for the Hoyas even in a tough road game to not get the win/cover.
Top Pick
Xavier -2 vs Butler- should be a raucous crowd and Xavier handles a weakend Butler team at home.
Lean
Georgetown -1.5 vs Temple- Too much talent for the Hoyas even in a tough road game to not get the win/cover.
Wednesday, December 8, 2010
Unofficial Bowl Picks Part 1
Here are my initial thoughts on the bowl games. These are subject to change as the coaching carousel continues, players get in trouble, etc.
NIU/Fresno St Over 59.5- Fresno almost always plays well in bowl games and NIU will want to win for the interim coach. Both teams are offensive minded and this should get the game over.
Utah +17 vs Boise St- I think both teams will play well but Utah will be a bit more focused than Boise. In recent bowl games, Boise has been the underdog so I think they will not have that the same edge in preparing for this one.
Tulsa/Hawaii over 72.5- Somewhat risky as Hawaii can play some stout defense at times but most teams coming in from the mainland end up wilting defensively pretty early and the game flies over.
Air Force -2 vs Ga. Tech- When was the last time we saw 2 option teams in a bowl game. I love it. Air Force has been the better team all year and will be fired up to prove they are the preeminent wishbone team.
NCST +2.5 vs West Virginia- Pretty even match up here but I like the coaches for NC St a little better. Also I think that NCST has the motivation advantage here as well. This has been a bit of a letdown season for the Mountaineers and NCST exceeded expectations a bit.
More to come...
Saturday, December 4, 2010
Saturday 12/4 Night Games
I had to sweat out the Utah St cover but got the ATS win.
Going with a couple of favorites tonight.
Top Picks
Washington -5.5 vs Washington St- The line on this game scares me a bit as I would have expected it to be higher but I am confident that Washington will use the moment they have to get a win and be bowl eligible. I don't think the rivalry aspect is enough to keep this game competetive over 4 quarters.
Va Tech -4.5 vs Florida St- I think this is actually a pretty big mismatch. FSU looked great against Florida but really that was pretty dog effort by the gators and FSU took advantage. Va Tech has recovered nicely since their opening 2 losses and will finish the season out in style and go to a BCS game.
Going with a couple of favorites tonight.
Top Picks
Washington -5.5 vs Washington St- The line on this game scares me a bit as I would have expected it to be higher but I am confident that Washington will use the moment they have to get a win and be bowl eligible. I don't think the rivalry aspect is enough to keep this game competetive over 4 quarters.
Va Tech -4.5 vs Florida St- I think this is actually a pretty big mismatch. FSU looked great against Florida but really that was pretty dog effort by the gators and FSU took advantage. Va Tech has recovered nicely since their opening 2 losses and will finish the season out in style and go to a BCS game.
Utah St Vs Boise St
5 Star Play
I have not designated a game as a 5 star play lately however I am very confident on this one.
Utah St +38 vs Boise St.
In just about any sport at the collegiate level (even pros) we have seen a team have a devastating loss and then suffer the inevitable let down the following game. I used this angle earlier after Missouri (11/6) lost their first game and came out flat against a lesser team the following week.
Boise's loss last week was about as devastating as you can get in the regular season. Every week they had a spotlight on them and were constantly the source of debate. Now they are not playing for the national championship and really can't even be the best team in the WAC! That is a serious fall for this team.
Utah St has had their moments this year and has everything to gain in this game. They will be fired up to beat Boise and head into the offseason on a high note and position themselves as a contender next year in the WAC.
I really think that Utah St can win this game outright and if by chance Boise can bounce back and play well there will be little motivation to put up a lot of points. If Boise does cover then we can officially say the Boise St coach is the greatest motivator of all time. But we have all seen it too many times that it is next to impossible to suffer a terrible loss and be able to avoid the inevitable letdown.
I have not designated a game as a 5 star play lately however I am very confident on this one.
Utah St +38 vs Boise St.
In just about any sport at the collegiate level (even pros) we have seen a team have a devastating loss and then suffer the inevitable let down the following game. I used this angle earlier after Missouri (11/6) lost their first game and came out flat against a lesser team the following week.
Boise's loss last week was about as devastating as you can get in the regular season. Every week they had a spotlight on them and were constantly the source of debate. Now they are not playing for the national championship and really can't even be the best team in the WAC! That is a serious fall for this team.
Utah St has had their moments this year and has everything to gain in this game. They will be fired up to beat Boise and head into the offseason on a high note and position themselves as a contender next year in the WAC.
I really think that Utah St can win this game outright and if by chance Boise can bounce back and play well there will be little motivation to put up a lot of points. If Boise does cover then we can officially say the Boise St coach is the greatest motivator of all time. But we have all seen it too many times that it is next to impossible to suffer a terrible loss and be able to avoid the inevitable letdown.
Friday, December 3, 2010
MAC Championship Pick
Top Pick
NIU/Miami, OH over 54.5
Two surprise teams land in the MAC title game. NIU was expected to compete but they basically dominated their MAC games and had very few close calls. Miami, OH pretty much came out of nowhere to win their division and got some needed help last week to clinch.
NIU will look to use their high powered offense to get the victory while Miami, OH will try to slow it down. I am confident that Miami will not be able to stop NIU consistently and will be forced to take some chances and play a less conservative game and that will get the total over.
NIU/Miami, OH over 54.5
Two surprise teams land in the MAC title game. NIU was expected to compete but they basically dominated their MAC games and had very few close calls. Miami, OH pretty much came out of nowhere to win their division and got some needed help last week to clinch.
NIU will look to use their high powered offense to get the victory while Miami, OH will try to slow it down. I am confident that Miami will not be able to stop NIU consistently and will be forced to take some chances and play a less conservative game and that will get the total over.
Wednesday, December 1, 2010
12/1 NBA Pick
One play tonight-
Chicago -2 vs Orlando - The bulls are back in town after a long road trip and have started to believe they are real contenders in the East. A win over the Magic will help solidify that. I think they get it. Also, it appears that Boozer will play tonight which I think is not really in the Bulls favor as he has to work his way back into shape. However, that should not stop them from getting the ATS win.
Chicago -2 vs Orlando - The bulls are back in town after a long road trip and have started to believe they are real contenders in the East. A win over the Magic will help solidify that. I think they get it. Also, it appears that Boozer will play tonight which I think is not really in the Bulls favor as he has to work his way back into shape. However, that should not stop them from getting the ATS win.
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