Here are the rest of my plays.
Top Picks
Ole Miss Team Total over 20
Ohio st/Wisconsin over 55.5
Stanford/Wash under 46.5
Wyoming -10 vs Texas St
Nevada -11 vs Air Force
Lean
Arkansas +13.5 vs Texas A&M
NM St +16.5 vs SDST
Arizona St -4 vs USC
Writeups
Ole Miss- I am not sure how this game will play out in terms of a winner but I am confident that Ole Miss will be able to exploit Bama's defense enough to score at least 21 points. Jump on that easy side and enjoy whatever else happens.
Ohio St/Wisconsin- I like both teams to rely heavily on their offenses to get it done in this one. Ultimately both teams have offensive minded head coaches and although they have athletes on defenses, offense will rule in this game and it will fly over.
Stanford/Wash St- It's tough to see Stanford falling in this one however I think the Cougars will do everything they can to keep this game on the slow side and give themselves a chance to win at the end. I don't think that will work that well for them but will keep this game from going over the low number.
Wyoming- I was on the wrong side of the Wyoming tracks last week. They have a really dangerous offense. Texas St is still learning how to handle opponents at this level and won't be able to contain the Cowboys offense.
Nevada- In my preseason research, I called for fading AF especially on the road. Nevada is not as good as past years but they will handle the Falcons easily in this one.
Arkansas- 13.5 is too much for A&M's defense to handle on the road.
NMSt- Fading the really bad Aztecs after another really bad loss.
Arizona St- I don't think USC's offense will hold up their end of the bargain and keep up the scoring needed. It will not be easy but ASU will get the cover.
Saturday, September 28, 2013
Friday, September 27, 2013
College Football Picks 9/27-28- Friday Nite and Saturday Part 1
Nailed the Va Tech/Ga Tech under so let's keep the momentum going. Starting with a Friday night pick and my early game picks.
Friday Night
Lean
San Jose St +10 vs Utah St
Saturday
Top Picks
Central Florida +7 vs S. Carolina
East Carolina/North Carolina over 61
LSU +3.5 vs Georgia
Lean
Navy -3 vs W. Kentucky
Writeups
San Jose St- The Spartans don't get too many showcase games so they will be primed for this one. Utah St came through for me last week as a 5 star play so I certainly am familiar with their game. I like the Spartans offense to be really sharp in this game and to get off to a fast start. Look for Utah St to be in catch up mode most of the game. I like the Aggies to close the gap and win this one at the end however I like the Spartans to cover the 10.
Central Florida- This a sneaky good team. They went into Penn St and took care of business (see earlier post) and they have a chance to do the same to the Gamecocks. Coach George O'Leary will have his defense ready and although they don't have the talent that USC has, they will be well prepared in this one. Offensively they will play field position and force USC into some bad plays.
The Gamecocks will not be fired up in this and will need to adjust their intensity. I won't be surprised if the Gamecocks are trailing in the 4th quarter and fall to C. Florida in this one.
E. Carolina/UNC- Both of these teams are offensive oriented and will be raring to show off their prowess in this one. UNC is coming off a stinging loss to Ga Tech and will be ready to redeem themselves. The ECU Pirates will not be intimidated by the Tarheels and will be happy to try to match big plays. This should be a fun one and more importantly should fly over the 61.
LSU- I gotta have a side in this one. I like LSU to take care of business. Georgia no doubt will start out strong and get their offense on track. However LSU will make several adjustments on the defensive side of the ball as the game goes on and will slow UGA to a halt. Meanwhile UGA's defense is suspect and will not be able to hold LSU down. I will probably take the Tigers on the $line but I am definitely taking the points.
Navy- going on the road for this one won't bother Navy. They are used to tough environments. I like Navy's overall talent edge to be the difference and for them to get the win and cover against W. Kentucky. Last year W. Kentucky would have been the play but not this time around.
Friday Night
Lean
San Jose St +10 vs Utah St
Saturday
Top Picks
Central Florida +7 vs S. Carolina
East Carolina/North Carolina over 61
LSU +3.5 vs Georgia
Lean
Navy -3 vs W. Kentucky
Writeups
San Jose St- The Spartans don't get too many showcase games so they will be primed for this one. Utah St came through for me last week as a 5 star play so I certainly am familiar with their game. I like the Spartans offense to be really sharp in this game and to get off to a fast start. Look for Utah St to be in catch up mode most of the game. I like the Aggies to close the gap and win this one at the end however I like the Spartans to cover the 10.
Central Florida- This a sneaky good team. They went into Penn St and took care of business (see earlier post) and they have a chance to do the same to the Gamecocks. Coach George O'Leary will have his defense ready and although they don't have the talent that USC has, they will be well prepared in this one. Offensively they will play field position and force USC into some bad plays.
The Gamecocks will not be fired up in this and will need to adjust their intensity. I won't be surprised if the Gamecocks are trailing in the 4th quarter and fall to C. Florida in this one.
E. Carolina/UNC- Both of these teams are offensive oriented and will be raring to show off their prowess in this one. UNC is coming off a stinging loss to Ga Tech and will be ready to redeem themselves. The ECU Pirates will not be intimidated by the Tarheels and will be happy to try to match big plays. This should be a fun one and more importantly should fly over the 61.
LSU- I gotta have a side in this one. I like LSU to take care of business. Georgia no doubt will start out strong and get their offense on track. However LSU will make several adjustments on the defensive side of the ball as the game goes on and will slow UGA to a halt. Meanwhile UGA's defense is suspect and will not be able to hold LSU down. I will probably take the Tigers on the $line but I am definitely taking the points.
Navy- going on the road for this one won't bother Navy. They are used to tough environments. I like Navy's overall talent edge to be the difference and for them to get the win and cover against W. Kentucky. Last year W. Kentucky would have been the play but not this time around.
Thursday, September 26, 2013
Thursday Night College Football
Big weekend of football ahead. Starting out with
Top Pick
Ga Tech/Va Tech under 42- I have to give Ga Tech quite a bit of credit for winning and covering last weekend. Their defense came up big after a rough start and really shut down a good North Carolina offense. I like them to pick up right where they left off tonight against a mediocre Va Tech offense.
Meanwhile, Va Tech's defense is coming around. They also are a team well equipped to handle the triple option attack of the Yellow Jackets.
I like this to be a pretty hard hitting game that does not go close to going over.
Top Pick
Ga Tech/Va Tech under 42- I have to give Ga Tech quite a bit of credit for winning and covering last weekend. Their defense came up big after a rough start and really shut down a good North Carolina offense. I like them to pick up right where they left off tonight against a mediocre Va Tech offense.
Meanwhile, Va Tech's defense is coming around. They also are a team well equipped to handle the triple option attack of the Yellow Jackets.
I like this to be a pretty hard hitting game that does not go close to going over.
Saturday, September 21, 2013
College Football 9/21 Late Pick
One last play...
Top Pick
Air Force +5.5 vs Wyoming
AFU has had a rough time the last 2 games out vs top competition. They are playing Wyoming at home and although the cowboys are formidable, AF will not let this chance get away. Take the points but I am on the $line on this one.
Top Pick
Air Force +5.5 vs Wyoming
AFU has had a rough time the last 2 games out vs top competition. They are playing Wyoming at home and although the cowboys are formidable, AF will not let this chance get away. Take the points but I am on the $line on this one.
College Football Picks- 9/21
I have more early plays than later ones so most of my action is below. I will likely post a few more picks in a few more hours.
5 star
Utah St +6.5 vs. USC
Top Picks
Va Tech/Marshall over 48.5
Tennessee +15.5 vs Florida
Notre Dame -4.5
Lean
North Carolina +6.5 vs Ga Tech
Maryland -5 vs W. Virginia
Writeups:
Utah St- The Aggies lost a tough opener on the road in their first game and have been on a tear since then albeit against lesser opponents. The Aggies have a diverse offense and they will put pressure on USC's defense all day. USC had a break out game last time out vs BC however I really don't think their offense is where it needs to be.
I don't envisions Utah St scoring at will but I think they will put up 24-30 points which will be more than enough to cover the generous 6.5 vs a USC team that will be hard pressed to score more than 27 themselves.
Va Tech/Marshall- Va Tech and ECU got into a slugfest last week and I think the books overcorrected the total based on that game.. Marshall is all about offense and will be pushing the offense and Va Tech will get their offense on track vs a mediocre to poor Marshall defense.
Tennessee- The Gators have owned the last 8 games and although I do expect the Gators to win, the vols will come to play in this one. Outside of the Oregon juggernaut, the Vols defense has been stout and that will be enough to keep them in this one.
Notre Dame- The Irish are 0-3 ATS this year but I like that to change today. Their offense is getting better and although their defense is a far cry from last year, they have more than enough to handle MSU's offense. The Spartans broke through with 30 whole points against...Youngstown St. i am not impressed. The Irish won't blow the Spartans out but they will make a handful of big plays where MSU won't and get the win and ATS win.
North Carolina- I really like Ga Tech this year but 6.5 is too many points for me to pass up. UNC has played a much tougher schedule than Tech and that will pay off in this one. I expect the winning difference to be a field goal either way.
Maryland- I am jumping on the Terps as I think they are still a bit underrated. WVU has not shown anything on either side of the ball so I like the Terps to get it done by 10 points today.
5 star
Utah St +6.5 vs. USC
Top Picks
Va Tech/Marshall over 48.5
Tennessee +15.5 vs Florida
Notre Dame -4.5
Lean
North Carolina +6.5 vs Ga Tech
Maryland -5 vs W. Virginia
Writeups:
Utah St- The Aggies lost a tough opener on the road in their first game and have been on a tear since then albeit against lesser opponents. The Aggies have a diverse offense and they will put pressure on USC's defense all day. USC had a break out game last time out vs BC however I really don't think their offense is where it needs to be.
I don't envisions Utah St scoring at will but I think they will put up 24-30 points which will be more than enough to cover the generous 6.5 vs a USC team that will be hard pressed to score more than 27 themselves.
Va Tech/Marshall- Va Tech and ECU got into a slugfest last week and I think the books overcorrected the total based on that game.. Marshall is all about offense and will be pushing the offense and Va Tech will get their offense on track vs a mediocre to poor Marshall defense.
Tennessee- The Gators have owned the last 8 games and although I do expect the Gators to win, the vols will come to play in this one. Outside of the Oregon juggernaut, the Vols defense has been stout and that will be enough to keep them in this one.
Notre Dame- The Irish are 0-3 ATS this year but I like that to change today. Their offense is getting better and although their defense is a far cry from last year, they have more than enough to handle MSU's offense. The Spartans broke through with 30 whole points against...Youngstown St. i am not impressed. The Irish won't blow the Spartans out but they will make a handful of big plays where MSU won't and get the win and ATS win.
North Carolina- I really like Ga Tech this year but 6.5 is too many points for me to pass up. UNC has played a much tougher schedule than Tech and that will pay off in this one. I expect the winning difference to be a field goal either way.
Maryland- I am jumping on the Terps as I think they are still a bit underrated. WVU has not shown anything on either side of the ball so I like the Terps to get it done by 10 points today.
Saturday, September 14, 2013
College Football Picks 9/14 Part 2
Quick Update- South Carolina is down to as low as 11.5 so don't forget to load on that 5 star pick.
Here are the rest of my plays:
5 Star
Arizona St -5.5 vs Wisconsin
Top Picks:
Utah -3.5 vs Oregon St
Central Florida +3.5 vs Penn St
LSU -21 First Half vs Kent St
Writeups
Arizona St- Big 10 teams have not done well in the desert historically and Wisconsin is trying to reverse that trend. They will be tested mightily in this one to keep it close. They will be facing a fast paced offense in front of a hostile crowd. Both teams have feasted on weak competition and Wisconsin's defensive will be a heavy disadvantage when they hurry up gets going.
I like the Sun Devils to put this game away in the 2nd half as Wisconsin tries too late to slow the pace and realizes that they can't match the pace.
Utah- I have to give the Utes credit, they are playing well and with a lot of confidence. I think they will hit the wall later in the season but I really like them in this spot. They have momentum right now and are catching an Oregon St team that has not found their rhythym yet. Oregon St was pretty similar last year when they were the hot team that nobody was taking seriously. Big crowd will be a factor as well.
Central Florida- You can count on George O'Leary to have a solid defensive game plan ready for the inexperienced Penn St QB's. C. Florida always comes ready to play and they will give Penn St everything they can handle. Penn St will need to run the effectively to fight off the upset and I am not sure that C. Florida will let that happen. If the QB turns the ball over then look for the upset for the Knights.
LSU- Kent St is coming off a 2nd half collapse against Bowling Green and now has to travel to LSU and face a very rough LSU team. I am looking for LSU to hit them hard and fast in this one and run out to a big lead early. Building a 21+ lead in the first half should be pretty straightforward.
Here are the rest of my plays:
5 Star
Arizona St -5.5 vs Wisconsin
Top Picks:
Utah -3.5 vs Oregon St
Central Florida +3.5 vs Penn St
LSU -21 First Half vs Kent St
Writeups
Arizona St- Big 10 teams have not done well in the desert historically and Wisconsin is trying to reverse that trend. They will be tested mightily in this one to keep it close. They will be facing a fast paced offense in front of a hostile crowd. Both teams have feasted on weak competition and Wisconsin's defensive will be a heavy disadvantage when they hurry up gets going.
I like the Sun Devils to put this game away in the 2nd half as Wisconsin tries too late to slow the pace and realizes that they can't match the pace.
Utah- I have to give the Utes credit, they are playing well and with a lot of confidence. I think they will hit the wall later in the season but I really like them in this spot. They have momentum right now and are catching an Oregon St team that has not found their rhythym yet. Oregon St was pretty similar last year when they were the hot team that nobody was taking seriously. Big crowd will be a factor as well.
Central Florida- You can count on George O'Leary to have a solid defensive game plan ready for the inexperienced Penn St QB's. C. Florida always comes ready to play and they will give Penn St everything they can handle. Penn St will need to run the effectively to fight off the upset and I am not sure that C. Florida will let that happen. If the QB turns the ball over then look for the upset for the Knights.
LSU- Kent St is coming off a 2nd half collapse against Bowling Green and now has to travel to LSU and face a very rough LSU team. I am looking for LSU to hit them hard and fast in this one and run out to a big lead early. Building a 21+ lead in the first half should be pretty straightforward.
College Football Picks 9/14 Part 1
Lots of top picks and some 5 star picks today. Here we go!
5 Star Picks
Texas -2.5 vs Ole Miss
South Carolina -13.5 vs Vandy
Top Picks:
Bowling Green +2.5 vs Indiana
Va Tech -8 vs E. Carolina
Syracuse -29.5 vs Wagner
Leans:
Bama/A&M over 61.5
Georgia Tech -8.5 vs Duke
I will several more top picks and a 5 star pick ready for this afternoon.
Writeups:
Texas- The Longhorns got caught in a tough spot last week and once the game started to unravel then it really came apart. Everyone knows the ensuing drama that followed. Nothing to get a team focused liked losing a coach suddenly, plus this game will be at home, plus Vegas made Texas favored against the higher ranked Ole add up to a Texas win and the all important cover.
South Carolina- Life in the SEC spotlight is tough. Every loss is scrutinized and seems like the end of the world. Last week Georgia stepped up at home and took care of business. Remember S. Carolina has not played a home game and the players and the fans will be rabid. Vandy played S.C. tough last year and the gamecocks will not take them lightly. Vandy also does not have enough offensive firepower to seriously challenge the gamecocks over the course of the game.
13.5 is a big number however don't be scared off of it as the Gamecocks will be making a statement today,
Bowling Green- I am rolling again with Bowling Green. They did not bring their A game to the first half last week but the coaches quickly adjusted at half time and they took control of the game. This week they will be focused to take advantage of the chance to win against a Big 10 opponent. Indiana meanwhile got put through the meat grinder in a loss to Navy. There defense at the end of the day is just not up to snuff. If the Hoosiers pull this out it will be a 1 point win but likely BGSU gets the SU win on the road.
Va Tech- Good spot for the Hokies here. There defense matches up well with ECU and ECU's defense does not bring much to the party. The Hokies will be able to score with ease while their defense will get critical stops allowing them to cover the spread.
Syracuse- I know nothing about Wagner. Syracuse needs a W in the worst way and will take out their frustration on Wagner big time in this one. I am thinking something like 58-10.
Bama/A&M- Gotta have a side in this one. As much as Bama would like to shut down Manziel, the Aggies will still be able to score. Bama's offense will also get on track in this one. I like this one to get over in an entertaining game.
Ga Tech- So far Ga Tech looks solid and this will be a good test for them. I like their offense to control the tempo however I don't know all that much about Duke so I am getting over extended in this one.
5 Star Picks
Texas -2.5 vs Ole Miss
South Carolina -13.5 vs Vandy
Top Picks:
Bowling Green +2.5 vs Indiana
Va Tech -8 vs E. Carolina
Syracuse -29.5 vs Wagner
Leans:
Bama/A&M over 61.5
Georgia Tech -8.5 vs Duke
I will several more top picks and a 5 star pick ready for this afternoon.
Writeups:
Texas- The Longhorns got caught in a tough spot last week and once the game started to unravel then it really came apart. Everyone knows the ensuing drama that followed. Nothing to get a team focused liked losing a coach suddenly, plus this game will be at home, plus Vegas made Texas favored against the higher ranked Ole add up to a Texas win and the all important cover.
South Carolina- Life in the SEC spotlight is tough. Every loss is scrutinized and seems like the end of the world. Last week Georgia stepped up at home and took care of business. Remember S. Carolina has not played a home game and the players and the fans will be rabid. Vandy played S.C. tough last year and the gamecocks will not take them lightly. Vandy also does not have enough offensive firepower to seriously challenge the gamecocks over the course of the game.
13.5 is a big number however don't be scared off of it as the Gamecocks will be making a statement today,
Bowling Green- I am rolling again with Bowling Green. They did not bring their A game to the first half last week but the coaches quickly adjusted at half time and they took control of the game. This week they will be focused to take advantage of the chance to win against a Big 10 opponent. Indiana meanwhile got put through the meat grinder in a loss to Navy. There defense at the end of the day is just not up to snuff. If the Hoosiers pull this out it will be a 1 point win but likely BGSU gets the SU win on the road.
Va Tech- Good spot for the Hokies here. There defense matches up well with ECU and ECU's defense does not bring much to the party. The Hokies will be able to score with ease while their defense will get critical stops allowing them to cover the spread.
Syracuse- I know nothing about Wagner. Syracuse needs a W in the worst way and will take out their frustration on Wagner big time in this one. I am thinking something like 58-10.
Bama/A&M- Gotta have a side in this one. As much as Bama would like to shut down Manziel, the Aggies will still be able to score. Bama's offense will also get on track in this one. I like this one to get over in an entertaining game.
Ga Tech- So far Ga Tech looks solid and this will be a good test for them. I like their offense to control the tempo however I don't know all that much about Duke so I am getting over extended in this one.
Thursday, September 12, 2013
College Football Thursday
I am going with TCU/T. Tech over 63 as a lean. I am expecting T. Tech to push the tempo in this game and for TCU the tempo especially through the first 3 quarters. The game will probably slow down by the 4th quarter however the damage will already be done by then.
I will have my Saturday plays up on Saturday morning around 9:30CT.
I will have my Saturday plays up on Saturday morning around 9:30CT.
Saturday, September 7, 2013
College Football 9/7 Part 2
Here is the 2nd half of my card.
Top Pick
Syracuse +17 vs. Northwestern
S. Miss Team over 14.5
Washington St +14 vs. USC
Arizona/UNLV over 61
Leans:
Navy/Indiana 1st half under 35
Tulsa -13 vs Colorado St
Big Game (non official)
ND +5 vs Michigan
Writeups
Syracuse- This is more of a fade of Northwestern's defense which had some amazing pick sixes but really was getting run ragged by Cal. They came up with the big plays when they needed to but it was not a dominant performance. Syracuse came up just short against NU last year and will not be intimidated. This should come down to the last possession to determine the winner.
S. Miss- I had the same side with Wyoming last week. Nebraska's defense is not all that and Wyoming had a lot of success. I don't see the Blackshirts shutting down anyone this year and the Golden Eagles will scratch enough out to go over 14.5 points.
Washington st- The Cougars battled Auburn pretty well in their first game against in a tough environment. They are going into another tough venue however they are playing a USC team that is struggling to find their offensive identity. The Cougars will be able to score just enough points to cover the spread in this one.
UNLV- The Rebels moved the ball pretty well against Minnesota however they had some critical turnovers and special team breakdowns. They should clean those up and be able to score some more points this week. Arizona's offense should be successful as well as they have a scheme and talent advantage vs. UNLV. This will be a fun shootout in the desert.
Navy- This will be a scary one but Navy will hold the ball against the high powered Indiana offense and will not try to get into a scoring contest. 2nd half different story however the first half will go under.
Tulsa- I am looking for Tulsa to have a better bounceback effort than CSU. Tulsa has the talent edge and will take control of this over the course of the game and get the cover.
Notre Dame- Looking forward to watching this one. Too many points to pass up IMO.
Top Pick
Syracuse +17 vs. Northwestern
S. Miss Team over 14.5
Washington St +14 vs. USC
Arizona/UNLV over 61
Leans:
Navy/Indiana 1st half under 35
Tulsa -13 vs Colorado St
Big Game (non official)
ND +5 vs Michigan
Writeups
Syracuse- This is more of a fade of Northwestern's defense which had some amazing pick sixes but really was getting run ragged by Cal. They came up with the big plays when they needed to but it was not a dominant performance. Syracuse came up just short against NU last year and will not be intimidated. This should come down to the last possession to determine the winner.
S. Miss- I had the same side with Wyoming last week. Nebraska's defense is not all that and Wyoming had a lot of success. I don't see the Blackshirts shutting down anyone this year and the Golden Eagles will scratch enough out to go over 14.5 points.
Washington st- The Cougars battled Auburn pretty well in their first game against in a tough environment. They are going into another tough venue however they are playing a USC team that is struggling to find their offensive identity. The Cougars will be able to score just enough points to cover the spread in this one.
UNLV- The Rebels moved the ball pretty well against Minnesota however they had some critical turnovers and special team breakdowns. They should clean those up and be able to score some more points this week. Arizona's offense should be successful as well as they have a scheme and talent advantage vs. UNLV. This will be a fun shootout in the desert.
Navy- This will be a scary one but Navy will hold the ball against the high powered Indiana offense and will not try to get into a scoring contest. 2nd half different story however the first half will go under.
Tulsa- I am looking for Tulsa to have a better bounceback effort than CSU. Tulsa has the talent edge and will take control of this over the course of the game and get the cover.
Notre Dame- Looking forward to watching this one. Too many points to pass up IMO.
College Football 9/7 Part 1
There are not a whole lot of marquee games this week but no worries, games are always fun to watch when you picked the winning side.
Here are my winners for the morning/early afternoon games. Back around 3pm CST with my part 2 picks.
Top Picks:
South Florida +23 vs Michigan St
Bowling Green -6.5 vs Kent st
Leans:
Cincinnati -8.5 vs Illinois
Middle Tenn +17.5 vs North Carolina
Boise St -35 vs Tenn Martin
San Diego St +28.5 vs Ohio St
Big Games (non official picks)
Miami/Florida under 47.5 and 1st half under 24
Georgia -3 vs South Carolina
Writeups:
S. Florida- The Bulls are coming off a rough, embarrasing loss and will be looking to get the bad taste out of their mouths. Mich St had a ho hum victory and their offense looked pretty average. I wonder can Mich St score 23 points much less cover a spread of 23. The Bulls will keep this one well within the number.
Bowling Green- They had a strong week one performance and I like them to pick up where they left off last week with a notable exception, they will be more confident on offense knowing that their defense can erase any mistakes they make. Kent had an uninspiring win in week one and I don't see them bringing enough weapons to seriously challenge BGSU or covering the spread.
Cincinnati- I put this game in the too easy category. They seemingly have a big talent differential vs Illinois and looks like they should coast. So I will go with the Bearcats but it will be relatively conservative.
Middle Tenn- This team is confident and will be looking to get a high profile win. Their mindset will be to win this game vs. make a good showing. North Carolina did some nice things vs. South Carolina but will be in a bit of letdown mode for this one. They have this game as a win in their mind and will be challenged. Take the generous points.
Boise- The Broncos got stomped last week and will be in a foul mood for this one. Look for a big first half and then for them to hold on in the 2nd half.
San Diego St - Aztecs were another team that had a brutal opening week effort. They will play much better this week. A word of caution is that Ohio St. did not play all that well either so they will be looking for a better effort. This will be a scary one but the Aztecs will do enough to cover the spread.
Big Games:
Miami/Florida- I am looking for an old school fight in this one. Speed on defense will be the key in this game as neither team will be able to score easily.
Georgia- I am not really buying South Carolina yet so I like UGA to win this one at home.
Here are my winners for the morning/early afternoon games. Back around 3pm CST with my part 2 picks.
Top Picks:
South Florida +23 vs Michigan St
Bowling Green -6.5 vs Kent st
Leans:
Cincinnati -8.5 vs Illinois
Middle Tenn +17.5 vs North Carolina
Boise St -35 vs Tenn Martin
San Diego St +28.5 vs Ohio St
Big Games (non official picks)
Miami/Florida under 47.5 and 1st half under 24
Georgia -3 vs South Carolina
Writeups:
S. Florida- The Bulls are coming off a rough, embarrasing loss and will be looking to get the bad taste out of their mouths. Mich St had a ho hum victory and their offense looked pretty average. I wonder can Mich St score 23 points much less cover a spread of 23. The Bulls will keep this one well within the number.
Bowling Green- They had a strong week one performance and I like them to pick up where they left off last week with a notable exception, they will be more confident on offense knowing that their defense can erase any mistakes they make. Kent had an uninspiring win in week one and I don't see them bringing enough weapons to seriously challenge BGSU or covering the spread.
Cincinnati- I put this game in the too easy category. They seemingly have a big talent differential vs Illinois and looks like they should coast. So I will go with the Bearcats but it will be relatively conservative.
Middle Tenn- This team is confident and will be looking to get a high profile win. Their mindset will be to win this game vs. make a good showing. North Carolina did some nice things vs. South Carolina but will be in a bit of letdown mode for this one. They have this game as a win in their mind and will be challenged. Take the generous points.
Boise- The Broncos got stomped last week and will be in a foul mood for this one. Look for a big first half and then for them to hold on in the 2nd half.
San Diego St - Aztecs were another team that had a brutal opening week effort. They will play much better this week. A word of caution is that Ohio St. did not play all that well either so they will be looking for a better effort. This will be a scary one but the Aztecs will do enough to cover the spread.
Big Games:
Miami/Florida- I am looking for an old school fight in this one. Speed on defense will be the key in this game as neither team will be able to score easily.
Georgia- I am not really buying South Carolina yet so I like UGA to win this one at home.
Tuesday, September 3, 2013
College Football Week 1 Observations
I had a nice week one and am looking forward to week 2.
After week 1, I like to step back and try to find out which times might be better than I thought, which teams are worse, which teams are truly good or bad. I also like to look at the teams whose coaches are on the hot to see if they how their teams performed.
Here are some of my observations:
Teams that played poorly that really are not that bad: San Diego St, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, Tulsa, Boise St
For these teams, look for an opportunity to get some inflated points or take advantage of a small favored spread. This week, I like SD St to play much better, same goes for Tulsa. Sometimes a bad loss is a coaches best friend so they can get their teams focused.
Teams that played that may not be all that: Minnesota, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Notre Dame, Ohio St, USC and Michigan st.
For me the jury is still out on these teams. They won their games pretty handily but all showed some flaws. I will be looking for fade opportunities with this group.
Here are the teams that look legit: Baylor, UCF, Texas Tech, Wisconsin, Clemson, LSU and Florida St. Of course you can't blindly bet on these teams but they looked impressive and will steamroll many of their opponents.
Teams that looked bad and are bad: UNLV, Colorado st, Oregon St and Purdue.
I am not planning on betting on these teams unless they turn it around in a big way.
Most of the coaches on the hot seat came through in week one. The notable exception was UNLV which had some pretty bad breakdowns. Look for the Rebels to continue to play tight and to make mistakes as the pressure on the coaching staff mounts.
After week 1, I like to step back and try to find out which times might be better than I thought, which teams are worse, which teams are truly good or bad. I also like to look at the teams whose coaches are on the hot to see if they how their teams performed.
Here are some of my observations:
Teams that played poorly that really are not that bad: San Diego St, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, Tulsa, Boise St
For these teams, look for an opportunity to get some inflated points or take advantage of a small favored spread. This week, I like SD St to play much better, same goes for Tulsa. Sometimes a bad loss is a coaches best friend so they can get their teams focused.
Teams that played that may not be all that: Minnesota, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Notre Dame, Ohio St, USC and Michigan st.
For me the jury is still out on these teams. They won their games pretty handily but all showed some flaws. I will be looking for fade opportunities with this group.
Here are the teams that look legit: Baylor, UCF, Texas Tech, Wisconsin, Clemson, LSU and Florida St. Of course you can't blindly bet on these teams but they looked impressive and will steamroll many of their opponents.
Teams that looked bad and are bad: UNLV, Colorado st, Oregon St and Purdue.
I am not planning on betting on these teams unless they turn it around in a big way.
Most of the coaches on the hot seat came through in week one. The notable exception was UNLV which had some pretty bad breakdowns. Look for the Rebels to continue to play tight and to make mistakes as the pressure on the coaching staff mounts.
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