BCS Championship Game

Here we go, the finale for college football. For the game, I will break down what I think will happen and how to bet it to maximize your winning.

First, Auburn will cover the 9 to 10.5 points (depending where and when you bet) the game. There are two red flags for FSU, the first is that their strength of schedule was weak. It's not their fault that the ACC was down but when your top 3 wins are Clemson (respectable) then Duke and Maryland/BC then you know you played a soft schedule. Don't underrate this fact. This is the first team they will face that has as much or more speed than them. The other factor is the betting adage to take points when a team from a power conference is getting more than 7 points. In the recent bowls, underdogs have been covering. I expect the same tonight.

With that said, this game won't be one sided. FSU can very well win this game and I like them to start fast and score first with a TD. According to Bovada, the odds for that are 1/1 so jump on that. I can see FSU coming at Auburn very hard defensively in the first few possessions and Auburn struggling offensively. Auburn will make adjustements pretty quickly and after a slow start this game will turn into a shootout starting the 2nd quarter.

Take the 2nd quarter over of 19.5. I think there will be at least 3 TD's scored in the 2nd quarter and likely 24 points will go up.

I am looking for a halftime score of Florida St 20 Auburn 17. So go ahead and take Auburn +6.5 for the first half and Auburn Team Total first half over 14.5. The first half total is 34.5 which might not get there depending on how slow Auburn starts so I would stay away from that one just take the 2nd quarter over.

Moving on to the 3rd quarter, this is where Auburn will make there move. You can't underestimate the coaching job that Gus Malzahn has done for Auburn this year. He will have started to make adjustments in the first half and will be ready to attack in the 3rd quarter. Lock Auburn in at +3 for the 3rd quarter. I see Auburn winning the 3rd quarter but no worse than tying so the +3 will be good.

During the 3rd quarter or early 4th quarter, I like Auburn to score their 4th TD so take the prop of Auburn over 3.5 TD's as well.

I like the 4th quarter to remain close. No special bets for the 4th quarter, I plan on sitting back and watching these heavyweights leaving it all on the field.

For the final score, I will say Florida St 37 Auburn 34.

New Year's Day Bowl Picks Part 1

Happy New Year

Let's get right to the picks.

5 Star Play

LSU -8 vs Iowa

Top Plays

Wisconsin -1 vs S. Carolina
LSU -4.5 First Half vs Iowa
LSU over 14.5 Team Total first half

LSU- As we saw yesterday in the Miss St win, the SEC is loaded with talent all over and that comes out when they play other conferences. LSU was in the national championship mix for much of the year and is a really good team. The qb injury should be easily overcome with a month a practice and the passing is not really their strength anyways.

Iowa had a nice season but really is only in this game because of bowl tie ins. They did not really have a signature win in the big ten and struggled to beat teams like Northwestern. I am sure that Ferentz will have his team ready however there is a huge gap in talent and that will be evident early and often today.

Wisconsin- The badgers steadily improved all year and very easily could be heading to the Rose Bowl again this year if not for the timing of their game against Ohio St. S. Carolina has been up and down all year and i question their focus in this one. Their de facto team leader, Clowney has gotten in some trouble and is fully focused on the NFL now. Wisconsin will grind this one out and get the win.