This is another team that is hard to figure out. It seems like every year they have the goods to compete but one way or another they find themselves on the outside looking in.
Looking at the good points, they do consistently recruit well and are never at a loss for talent. Also they play in the Pac 10 and if they ever could break through then they would be at the doorstep of the Rose Bowl or another BCS game.
Although Head Coach Tedford is penned an offensive guru and a developer of QB's, it has been a while since he really has found someone solid there. With there neighbor rival Stanford having a solid Heisman QB in Andrew Luck, look for Tedford to really put his QB likely (Kevin Riley) in good situations so he can excel.
With the exception of the UC Davis game, the schedule is pretty tough with few breaks. Keep an eye on this team, week to week. If they start to falter then I am not so sure Tedford will be able to right the ship.
Swicat
Sunday, May 23, 2010
Sunday, May 16, 2010
Colorado
The Buffaloes were a real big disappointment last year and this year could be just as bad. Coach Hawkins seemed like a perfect fit coming out of Boise St. He took an under talented team or so it seemed and got them competing on a high level.
Going to CU, it seemed like with more resources, he would bring the Buffaloes back. Unfortunately, he has not recruited well enough in the Big 12 to stay close and has consistently played a tough non conference schedule which is great when you win but very rough when you lose.
It will be more of the same this year as the Buffaloes travel to Cal and host Georgia. If they can't win one of those, the team will be officially in full downward spiral and will be a bet against for most of their remaining games. if they can pull off an upset then they may be able to garner some confidence and be a good bet.
Swicat
Going to CU, it seemed like with more resources, he would bring the Buffaloes back. Unfortunately, he has not recruited well enough in the Big 12 to stay close and has consistently played a tough non conference schedule which is great when you win but very rough when you lose.
It will be more of the same this year as the Buffaloes travel to Cal and host Georgia. If they can't win one of those, the team will be officially in full downward spiral and will be a bet against for most of their remaining games. if they can pull off an upset then they may be able to garner some confidence and be a good bet.
Swicat
Georgia
To call Mark Richt a coach on the hot seat is a bit of a stretch but in the ultra competetive SEC, there are no is not a lot of job security unless you are winning SEC championships and national championships year in and year out.
Looking at the Bulldogs, they of course need a new QB which should not be a problem. The problem is how to overtake the mighty gators and win the East.
As i said with Illinois, I am not a big fan of changing coordinators and thinking that will solve the problem.
Looking at the schedule, it is a very tough one again. The early season match up against South Carolina should be a good test for both schools.
Swicat
Looking at the Bulldogs, they of course need a new QB which should not be a problem. The problem is how to overtake the mighty gators and win the East.
As i said with Illinois, I am not a big fan of changing coordinators and thinking that will solve the problem.
Looking at the schedule, it is a very tough one again. The early season match up against South Carolina should be a good test for both schools.
Swicat
Saturday, May 15, 2010
Michigan
Is their any seat hotter than Rich Rod's? He has taken over one of the most storied programs in college football and pretty much run it into the ground.
However, as unbiased fan, I do think there is hope but the damage may be too much to overcome.
Looking at the positives, he has 2 recruiting classes under his belt and his players were showing signs of understanding and executing the option offense that is his trademark. The other positive is that the administration is standing behind him for the moment.
The negatives are that he has never been known for his defense and his team was awful on defense last year and i am not confident that he will improve much on that side of the ball. Also, if the accusations against him come out as true and the NCAA takes action then he might have gone too far to save himself.
The schedule is pretty manageable. The big test against ND should favor Michigan as they will be playing a team still feeling things out. I think MU should be 6-0 or 5-1 before the wheels start to fall and they come back to earth against Iowa. They should be a nice value against UConn in the first game as well.
However, as unbiased fan, I do think there is hope but the damage may be too much to overcome.
Looking at the positives, he has 2 recruiting classes under his belt and his players were showing signs of understanding and executing the option offense that is his trademark. The other positive is that the administration is standing behind him for the moment.
The negatives are that he has never been known for his defense and his team was awful on defense last year and i am not confident that he will improve much on that side of the ball. Also, if the accusations against him come out as true and the NCAA takes action then he might have gone too far to save himself.
The schedule is pretty manageable. The big test against ND should favor Michigan as they will be playing a team still feeling things out. I think MU should be 6-0 or 5-1 before the wheels start to fall and they come back to earth against Iowa. They should be a nice value against UConn in the first game as well.
Illinois
I always think that a sign of a coach in trouble is when they start firing their coordinators. Looking at Ron Zook, he has done some housecleaning but is the problem the Coordinators or the head coach.
Last year, expectations were pretty high with Juice Williams and Arrelious Benn to lead the offense. Unfortunately the offense never got on track and the defense was not much better.
Looking ahead to this year, the Illini schedule is pretty tough. They start against Missouri a team that they seemingly have as much talent as but have not been able to beat. They then have some in state games which they should win but his a real tough stretch with Ohio St, Penn St and Mich St. If they lose those three then Zook is pretty much gone and the team will really start to tank.
For a coach on the hot seat, any time there are consecutive losses then the pressure builds very quickly and they become a good go against team.
Swicat
Last year, expectations were pretty high with Juice Williams and Arrelious Benn to lead the offense. Unfortunately the offense never got on track and the defense was not much better.
Looking ahead to this year, the Illini schedule is pretty tough. They start against Missouri a team that they seemingly have as much talent as but have not been able to beat. They then have some in state games which they should win but his a real tough stretch with Ohio St, Penn St and Mich St. If they lose those three then Zook is pretty much gone and the team will really start to tank.
For a coach on the hot seat, any time there are consecutive losses then the pressure builds very quickly and they become a good go against team.
Swicat
Wednesday, May 5, 2010
Florida St
The question about this coaching change is not what new coach Jimbo Fisher is going to change but more along the lines of what he can change.
He of course is following one of the most legendary coaches and has been the coach in waiting for the past few years. Therefore he probably is pretty ingrained already and won't be installing an extreme makeover.
So can he win with essentially the same talent level as the few years in the ACC and an unforgiving non conference schedule.
I am not expecting much of an improvement over the last few years and I won't be surprised if the fans have a short temper if the losses start early or if they can't handle at least one of their in state rivals- Miami or Florida.
He of course is following one of the most legendary coaches and has been the coach in waiting for the past few years. Therefore he probably is pretty ingrained already and won't be installing an extreme makeover.
So can he win with essentially the same talent level as the few years in the ACC and an unforgiving non conference schedule.
I am not expecting much of an improvement over the last few years and I won't be surprised if the fans have a short temper if the losses start early or if they can't handle at least one of their in state rivals- Miami or Florida.
Cincinnati
The Bearcats had a great season last year and unfortunately fell on a flat note when their coach bolted for ND.
The great news is that this team is stacked with talent on both sides of the ball and the new coach, butch jones, likely will keep similar schemes on offense so the transition should be smooth.
Having a stud qb is always a big advantage in college football and Cinci has Zach Collaros who stepped in last year and excelled. He is a great college qb who should do well as the man.
The key will be to see if Jones can keep the team together once they hit the conference schedule and the bullseye is on their back.
They could be a solid play during September though.
The great news is that this team is stacked with talent on both sides of the ball and the new coach, butch jones, likely will keep similar schemes on offense so the transition should be smooth.
Having a stud qb is always a big advantage in college football and Cinci has Zach Collaros who stepped in last year and excelled. He is a great college qb who should do well as the man.
The key will be to see if Jones can keep the team together once they hit the conference schedule and the bullseye is on their back.
They could be a solid play during September though.
Tuesday, May 4, 2010
Games to Circle
This will be a working list of games where I like a team based on scheduling or perceived value not knowing what the spread will be.
Michigan ATS vs Uconn on September 4th
Minnesota ATS vs USC- September 18
Sept 11th
Air Force ATS vs BYU- The cougars defense has a lot of holes to fill. Couple that with the fact they are playing Washington in the first game and need to prepare for a high octane passing attack and then have to turn around and play an option team. This is also a pretty rare chance for AF to catch BYU in early september as opposed to later in the year.
UConn ATS vs Michigan- All eyes will be on Rich Rod and how his team responds to their recent struggles. However, they drew a tough first game with Uconn who has over the years been a team even when losing usually keeps things tough. This could be a nice value underdog.
New Mexico ATS vs T. Tech Sept 11
Air Force ATS vs BYU- The cougars defense has a lot of holes to fill. Couple that with the fact they are playing Washington in the first game and need to prepare for a high octane passing attack and then have to turn around and play an option team. This is also a pretty rare chance for AF to catch BYU in early september as opposed to later in the year.
UConn ATS vs Michigan- All eyes will be on Rich Rod and how his team responds to their recent struggles. However, they drew a tough first game with Uconn who has over the years been a team even when losing usually keeps things tough. This could be a nice value underdog.
New Mexico ATS vs T. Tech Sept 11
Michigan ATS vs Uconn on September 4th
USC
Wow- I was quite surprised to see Pete Carroll pack it and move to the pros. I won't get into the conspiracy theories about the program heading to probation but I would not be shocked if it happened...
Moving on to the here and now, I am not excited about Lane Kiffin taking over this program. He is walking into a great situation with a real talented team but unless he can come in and win the pac 10, I see a lot fan resentment building and hanging over them in the offseason.
However a quick start is very possible with team and they can get some momentum heading into the conference games.
A good barometer may be the trip to Minnesota. Sure the Trojans should outclass them, I would not be surprised if they hit a road bump that day.
South Florida
The Skip Holtz era has begun and i think it will have a bright future. Personally I was a bit disappointed to see the way the former coach Jim Leavitt left the program. He put his heart and soul into the program and had some real success there. Unfortunately, he seemingly let his temper get the best of him and was dismissed.
So this is the classic one man's loss is another's gain. Skip Holtz walks into a program that is talented and should be well suited to adapt to his coaching style.
Looking at their schedule, it is built for a quick start. They likely will fall at Florida but should win the other 4 games before embarking on a couple of road trips.
They could be a nice value play heading into Morgantown on October 14th.
Notre Dame
You can't talking about coaching changes without mentioning Brian Kelly of ND. He has had an impressive run with his two previous spots but this is a different animal. The competition and the pressure will be much higher than in the past.
The big question has ND finally gotten it right with Kelly or will he be added to the list of recent flops.
Looking at their schedule, there are no gimmes. I do think Kelly was the right choice but I think it will be a rough start to the season but this is a team that will improve and likely will finish on a strong note and be able to cover quite a bit in the 2nd half of the season.
Sunday, May 2, 2010
Texas Tech
This will be a definite interesting team to watch this year. No need to rehash the whole Mike Leach firing however it is a situation where the new coach Tommy Tuberville will be challenged.
Tuberville enjoyed great success at Auburn and then was abruptly let go after a poor season. Ironically enough, Tuberville's downfall in my opinion was implementing a spread offense which was a total disaster. He had great success with running a traditional offense but succumbed to the pressure of the flavor of the day.
Now he takes over a program that is known for the spread offense. Does he try to continue with that offense and use the players recruited for it or does he go with what he knows and implement a traditional smash mouth program.
Personally, I think either road will be tough for him.
Coaching Changes
One handicapping angle that I like to use early in the season is to go against a new coach going into a rebuilding situation.
Most often these coaches are hired to implement a new system using players that were recruited for another system by the previous coach.
Sounds simple but many times, bettors will get sucked into the hype of thinking the new coach can implement success right away. On the other side, if a coach has been recruiting well but failed to win a new coach can be a good value. I will post some picks in the coming months with both situations.
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