The official prediction is Dallas in 6.
I like Dallas to win the opener and then win the all important game 5 at home and then Miami will wilt like most NBA teams do when faced with a close out and lose on their home court.
That will be nice imagery for the folks at ESPN to show the heat dejectedly walking off the court after their much heralded predictions of multiple championships before the season started.
When looking at the Mavs run through the playoffs, it has been pretty impressive. They were the popular pick by pundits to lose in the first round but won, swept the Lakers and took down OKC in 5. The funny thing about the Mavs run is that most people talk about the teams they beat and look at why those teams lost as opposed to why Dallas won. For instance with the Lakers, it is all about how Pau Gasol played poorly and so on, for OKC, it was about Kevin Durant not taking charge and Westbrook taking too many poor shots.
The reality is that Dallas is deep with an above at all positions and coming off the bench and of course they have the needed superstar in Dirk who can make the big shots when needed.
Looking at Miami, they have come together and are formidable. However, they have been fortunate that they have been able to pretty much avoid teams with strong frontline play. The Celtics would have been a bigger challenge had they kept Perkins but were able to dominate the series by using their stifling perimeter defense. Against they bulls, they cut off the head of the snake by handling Derrick Rose and the rest was history.
The Mavs will be able withstand the Heat's defensive pressure on the perimeter with their strong guard play. This will then open up the inside where the Heat's weakness will be exposed and the Mavs will exploit them from the inside out.
For the Heat, they will have their moments and The King will continue to shine but ultimately their lack of talent on the inside will defeat them.
Monday, May 30, 2011
Tuesday, May 24, 2011
NBA: Chicago at Miami Game 4
It's white knuckle time for the Bulls. If they lose this one then its all but over. If they win, then they are back in control.
I like the Bulls to come out and be agressive and really try to push the ball and take shots much earlier in the shot clock. This may or may not work but they know they can't let Miami get their defense set consistently and expect to score in the half point set.
Also Derrick Rose will put the team on his shoulders. Will that be enough, not sure but here is how I will bet this one.
Bulls Team points over 87
Derrick Rose over 26.5 points (-130)
I like the Bulls to come out and be agressive and really try to push the ball and take shots much earlier in the shot clock. This may or may not work but they know they can't let Miami get their defense set consistently and expect to score in the half point set.
Also Derrick Rose will put the team on his shoulders. Will that be enough, not sure but here is how I will bet this one.
Bulls Team points over 87
Derrick Rose over 26.5 points (-130)
Sunday, May 22, 2011
NBA: Miami at Chicago Game 3
It's hard to believe that this is only the third game of the series but it is shaping to be a very good one.
For everything Chicago did right in the first game, Miami came back and played a great game 2 and made themselves look like the superior team.
Game 3 of course is in Miami and probably not a huge factor for either team. Both teams won a lot of a games on the road so I don't think the location means a whole lot.
What matters with these teams is rebounding and getting extra opportunities. Udonis Haslem gave the lift they needed but can Miami expect a repeat performance, probably not.
I am not sure who is going to make shots in this game but I know both teams are preaching how important defense is to them so I am taking the under 179.5 half again. Even with both teams putting up a big 2nd quarter last game the over never was close. Go ahead and take the under and root for whoever you want so if your team wins or loses you will have a winning side.
For everything Chicago did right in the first game, Miami came back and played a great game 2 and made themselves look like the superior team.
Game 3 of course is in Miami and probably not a huge factor for either team. Both teams won a lot of a games on the road so I don't think the location means a whole lot.
What matters with these teams is rebounding and getting extra opportunities. Udonis Haslem gave the lift they needed but can Miami expect a repeat performance, probably not.
I am not sure who is going to make shots in this game but I know both teams are preaching how important defense is to them so I am taking the under 179.5 half again. Even with both teams putting up a big 2nd quarter last game the over never was close. Go ahead and take the under and root for whoever you want so if your team wins or loses you will have a winning side.
Wednesday, May 18, 2011
NBA: Miami at Chicago Game 2
The Bulls had a great game on Sunday and as we all saw everything fell into place for Chicago. They dominated the boards, hit 3's, did not turn the ball over and played smothering defense against the heat. If there was a checklist then they would have marked all off the categories to get a win.
For those interested, the Bulls are now the favorite to win the series at -140 and Miami is a dog at +110. If you like the bulls to win the series lock them in at -140 and if you like Miami then hold on because tonight...
The play is to parlay the bulls -2.5 and the under 181.5
Here's why:
The heat have gotten beat up by everyone for getting killed on the boards. The truth is they can't improve much in this area. Their frontcourt is either old or slow or both. That can't be changed. The only way to do better on the boards is to send more people to rebound. Eventhough this is not their style they will try it.
The result will be they will do better getting rebounds but it will slow them way down on offense. If the bulls miss, they will be able to get back on defense and prevent easy baskets which has been Miami's key to success.
For the Bulls, it will be more of the Derek Rose show. Look for 15+ free throws and more assists than Sunday. They will shoot worse from three but will be able to grind out a low scoring win. Don't expect a blowout again but the bulls will win somewhere around 85-79 or so.
If you are a Heat fan, wait til after this game and then lock them in as a big dog because this series will be far from over even after the bulls go up 2-0.
For those interested, the Bulls are now the favorite to win the series at -140 and Miami is a dog at +110. If you like the bulls to win the series lock them in at -140 and if you like Miami then hold on because tonight...
The play is to parlay the bulls -2.5 and the under 181.5
Here's why:
The heat have gotten beat up by everyone for getting killed on the boards. The truth is they can't improve much in this area. Their frontcourt is either old or slow or both. That can't be changed. The only way to do better on the boards is to send more people to rebound. Eventhough this is not their style they will try it.
The result will be they will do better getting rebounds but it will slow them way down on offense. If the bulls miss, they will be able to get back on defense and prevent easy baskets which has been Miami's key to success.
For the Bulls, it will be more of the Derek Rose show. Look for 15+ free throws and more assists than Sunday. They will shoot worse from three but will be able to grind out a low scoring win. Don't expect a blowout again but the bulls will win somewhere around 85-79 or so.
If you are a Heat fan, wait til after this game and then lock them in as a big dog because this series will be far from over even after the bulls go up 2-0.
Monday, May 16, 2011
NBA Playoffs: Dallas Vs Oklahoma City
Dallas is set as a pretty heavy favorite (-230) in this series.
The matchups seem to favor the Mavericks as they beat the Lakers easily and were hitting on all cylinders.
The tough part about taking the Mavs is that they are not a defensive minded team and the Thunder can score and if Durant and Westbrook get hot at the same time and each game becomes wide open. OKC can play good interior defense but that probably will not be a huge asset against a Dallas team that will keep the ball on the perimeter on offense.
With Dallas having the homecourt advantage, i think that will ultimately be the edge that they need. I like the Mavs in 7.
The matchups seem to favor the Mavericks as they beat the Lakers easily and were hitting on all cylinders.
The tough part about taking the Mavs is that they are not a defensive minded team and the Thunder can score and if Durant and Westbrook get hot at the same time and each game becomes wide open. OKC can play good interior defense but that probably will not be a huge asset against a Dallas team that will keep the ball on the perimeter on offense.
With Dallas having the homecourt advantage, i think that will ultimately be the edge that they need. I like the Mavs in 7.
Sunday, May 15, 2011
NBA: Miami at Chicago Game 1
Can anyone stop the heat? They certainly look strong and I can make a case for each team to win the series. With that in mind, for this series I will go game by game.
Game 1
Top Pick: Bulls -2 vs Heat
One aspect that makes the NBA playoffs compelling is the strategy from game to game. In game 1 both teams will have a game plan and we will which team will need to make an adjustment. With that in mind, I do give the bulls a big edge.
The heat to their credit have dominated the Knicks and then the Celtics and now should feel good coming into game one. There are a couple of areas where they the Bulls have an edge and I think will take advantage. The first is on the boards. The heat thrive on fast break points from rebounds and from from steals on the perimeter. Thibodeau knows this and will create a plan that tests the Heat on the inside. Look for the old veteran Kurt Thomas to play a critical role off the bulls bench.
The heat will also need to adjust to starting on the road. The home court is a pretty big advantage especially once you get to this level of the playoffs.
Game 1 to the Bulls and i will be back for game 2.
Game 1
Top Pick: Bulls -2 vs Heat
One aspect that makes the NBA playoffs compelling is the strategy from game to game. In game 1 both teams will have a game plan and we will which team will need to make an adjustment. With that in mind, I do give the bulls a big edge.
The heat to their credit have dominated the Knicks and then the Celtics and now should feel good coming into game one. There are a couple of areas where they the Bulls have an edge and I think will take advantage. The first is on the boards. The heat thrive on fast break points from rebounds and from from steals on the perimeter. Thibodeau knows this and will create a plan that tests the Heat on the inside. Look for the old veteran Kurt Thomas to play a critical role off the bulls bench.
The heat will also need to adjust to starting on the road. The home court is a pretty big advantage especially once you get to this level of the playoffs.
Game 1 to the Bulls and i will be back for game 2.
Sunday, May 1, 2011
NBA Playoffs Round 2
Usually, I take a cautious approach before patting myself on the back as a losing streak is always potentially around the corner but I was pretty happy to pick both Memphis and Atlanta as pretty big dogs to win their first round series.
Looking at the 2nd round, I don't have any concrete series picks. However, I like to see how the odds change as the series progress. For instance, the bulls are a big favorite over Atlanta however if they were to lose the first game they odds would drop quite a bit and then it may be a good time to lock them in.
Here is my outlook for each series.
Thunder vs Grizzlies- The thunder is currently -340 which seems like a pretty good price for them. The Grizzlies were able to take advantage of a slow front line of the Spurs but they will not have that luxury against the quick front line of the Thunder. Zach Randolph played a magnificent first round but he will struggle this round and will end up getting frustrated. Like the rest of the league, the Grizzlies have no answer to Durant.
Thunder in 5
Heat vs Celtics- This, of course, is the marquee matchup and the Heat are a favorite at -185. This is a series that I will watch for the odds to change after each game. Overall, I do like Boston but they will really miss Kendrick Perkins in this one. However if Rondo steps up they can win but if he is faltering then I will have to switch and look at the Heat.
For today's game I like the Celtics to win game 1 and for the Celtics to win the series in six however that is not set in stone.
Lakers vs Dallas- The lakers are a solid favorite at -360 which I think is a little steep. Both teams have decent matchups and Dallas is pretty underrated as many experts wrote them off in the first round. I definitely am going to check back and see if Dallas goes way up as a dog if they lose the first game. I think they have a chance with their athleticism to push the lakers.
Dallas in seven.
Chicago vs. Atlanta- I really don't give the Hawks much of a chance in this one. They will need the bulls to collapse in a big way if they want to hang. The teams that have had success against the bulls have stymied Derrick Rose to an extent and without Hinrich available, Rose should have his way by either scoring or driving the lane and dishing at will.
Bulls in five.
Looking at the 2nd round, I don't have any concrete series picks. However, I like to see how the odds change as the series progress. For instance, the bulls are a big favorite over Atlanta however if they were to lose the first game they odds would drop quite a bit and then it may be a good time to lock them in.
Here is my outlook for each series.
Thunder vs Grizzlies- The thunder is currently -340 which seems like a pretty good price for them. The Grizzlies were able to take advantage of a slow front line of the Spurs but they will not have that luxury against the quick front line of the Thunder. Zach Randolph played a magnificent first round but he will struggle this round and will end up getting frustrated. Like the rest of the league, the Grizzlies have no answer to Durant.
Thunder in 5
Heat vs Celtics- This, of course, is the marquee matchup and the Heat are a favorite at -185. This is a series that I will watch for the odds to change after each game. Overall, I do like Boston but they will really miss Kendrick Perkins in this one. However if Rondo steps up they can win but if he is faltering then I will have to switch and look at the Heat.
For today's game I like the Celtics to win game 1 and for the Celtics to win the series in six however that is not set in stone.
Lakers vs Dallas- The lakers are a solid favorite at -360 which I think is a little steep. Both teams have decent matchups and Dallas is pretty underrated as many experts wrote them off in the first round. I definitely am going to check back and see if Dallas goes way up as a dog if they lose the first game. I think they have a chance with their athleticism to push the lakers.
Dallas in seven.
Chicago vs. Atlanta- I really don't give the Hawks much of a chance in this one. They will need the bulls to collapse in a big way if they want to hang. The teams that have had success against the bulls have stymied Derrick Rose to an extent and without Hinrich available, Rose should have his way by either scoring or driving the lane and dishing at will.
Bulls in five.
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