Rough go of it so far today but I am confident that I will heat it up tonite!
5 Star Play
Oregon -6.5 vs USC- I am having a little trouble understanding why there is any confidence in usc. They have proven time and time again that their defense is not up to snuff and although they have plenty of talent on offense, they have yet to come thru in the clutch.
For Oregon, this is not their most important test but it is really their chance to put their stamp on the season as having the best offense and putting distance between them and Boise. Chip Kelly has kept his team on track and will continue their dominant season with another overwhelming victory.
Stanford -7 vs Washington- This is another game that I love. I have watched quite a bit of both of these teams and Washington has usually won on grit and making clutch plays when needed. When they have lost, their lack of discipline and mental errors have cost them.
As we have seen, Stanford is very solid and rarely makes multiple mistakes. Their defense will make Jake Locker need to be solid on consecutive plays and Locker has not shown the ability to be consistent. Offensively Stanford will make plays and Qb andrew Luck will win that battle easily.
Top Pick
Air Force +3.5 (First Half) Look for the Falcons to come out very sharp in this game. i am not sure if the Falcons can hang for the whole game but I do look them to get it done early.
Lean
Michigan -3 Well, I think everyone knows this is a make or break game for Rich Rod. He had a good start but has fallen apart recently. A loss here and it will be tough for him to survive the off season. I think that he will have his team well prepared and will get the win.
Baylor +7.5 This is a spot where I would normally like unranked team that is favored but I think that Baylor knows this is their chance to get a victory over Texas. I think that they will at least cover the spread and I will take a shot with the money line +250.
Saturday, October 30, 2010
10/30 2 More
A couple of additions-
Lean
Missouri +8- I look for the Tigers to hang tough. These 2 teams have had some memorable battles over the years and who knows when they will meet again so look for another last minute thriller.
Navy-13 Continuing to fade the Duke squad, they got pummeled last week and now face a Navy team flying high. Will not be close.
Lean
Missouri +8- I look for the Tigers to hang tough. These 2 teams have had some memorable battles over the years and who knows when they will meet again so look for another last minute thriller.
Navy-13 Continuing to fade the Duke squad, they got pummeled last week and now face a Navy team flying high. Will not be close.
10/30 2 More
A couple of additions-
Lean
Missouri +8- I look for the Tigers to hang tough. These 2 teams have had some memorable battles over the years and who knows when they will meet again so look for another last minute thriller.
Navy-13 Continuing to fade the Duke squad, they got pummeled last week and now face a Navy team flying high. Will not be close.
Lean
Missouri +8- I look for the Tigers to hang tough. These 2 teams have had some memorable battles over the years and who knows when they will meet again so look for another last minute thriller.
Navy-13 Continuing to fade the Duke squad, they got pummeled last week and now face a Navy team flying high. Will not be close.
Saturday 10/30 Picks Part 1
Today will be a multiple post today.
Starting out with a lean:
Northwestern -3.5
The wildcats are coming off back to back losses and Indiana has been scuffling along. I think that NU has the edge in talent here and the home field advantage is not big enough to overcome the talent differential. Also I think that NU has the edge in intangibles here as they think they are a bowl team and will have that sense of urgency.
Be back with more later.
Starting out with a lean:
Northwestern -3.5
The wildcats are coming off back to back losses and Indiana has been scuffling along. I think that NU has the edge in talent here and the home field advantage is not big enough to overcome the talent differential. Also I think that NU has the edge in intangibles here as they think they are a bowl team and will have that sense of urgency.
Be back with more later.
Saturday, October 23, 2010
Saturday 10/23 Picks
5 Star
Utah St +3 vs Hawaii
Top Picks
TCU – 18.5 vs Air Force
San Diego St -23.5 vs New Mexico
Georgia -4 vs Kentucky
Leans
LSU +5.5 vs Auburn
Va Tech -27 vs Duke
To Have a Side
Oklahoma/Missouri over
Alabama
Notre Dame
Writeups
Utah St- This has been a team I have been keeping my eye on since their opening strong performance against Oklahoma. They have played quite a bit better at home and have an extra week to prepare against Hawaii after coming off a bad performance against La Tech.
Hawaii true to their name has been flying high lately. They were a SU winner against Nevada and have gotten their pass attack back in order. However, I think that we have seen this consistently in college, the inevitable letdown.
This game sets up for a classic home dog SU winner as the Aggies use their extra week to get their game plan together and take advantage of Hawaii’s let down and get another home victory.
TCU- We all know how good TCU is so no need to go into detail about that. This pick is predicated on what I saw last week with Air Force. Their offensive was pretty well exposed by San Diego St. I don’t see the Falcons being able to make too many adjustments against a more physical, faster defense this week.
I usually like to take the points with an option team but I see this working against them this week as TCU will get a big lead early and then AF will be forced to change things up which will just make things worse.
SDSU – This is another game that I have been waiting for. I think a very underrated angle in college football is when a former HC gets dismissed and then goes to a conference foe as a coordinator. This is the case here as Rocky Long returns to NM as the D Coordinator for SDSU.
He has to feel a bit validated as NM has been a disaster since his departure. Look for a very spirited effort from his defense and the offense has an easy time putting up enough points to cover.
Georgia- This team was essentially left for dead after a poor September but don’t look now but they are in position to win the East if South Carolina stumbles again. Kentucky has been through a tough schedule and is very unlikely to be able to avoid a letdown against Georgia which looks weak on paper but will come into Lexington with a strong game.
LSU- They continue to find a way to get it done and have been non plussed on the road. Auburn has vaulted itself into the spotlight and this game all of sudden puts them in a position of being an upstart team to a legitimate contender. I think this will take away their carefree attitude and put a stress on them.
I am not calling for LSU to win but this will be at tense game and 5.5 is too many points but an LSU team that will be able to slow Auburn down quite a bit.
Va Tech- If the Dukies have not already done so, they will officially be switching gears to hoops after this beatdown.
Utah St +3 vs Hawaii
Top Picks
TCU – 18.5 vs Air Force
San Diego St -23.5 vs New Mexico
Georgia -4 vs Kentucky
Leans
LSU +5.5 vs Auburn
Va Tech -27 vs Duke
To Have a Side
Oklahoma/Missouri over
Alabama
Notre Dame
Writeups
Utah St- This has been a team I have been keeping my eye on since their opening strong performance against Oklahoma. They have played quite a bit better at home and have an extra week to prepare against Hawaii after coming off a bad performance against La Tech.
Hawaii true to their name has been flying high lately. They were a SU winner against Nevada and have gotten their pass attack back in order. However, I think that we have seen this consistently in college, the inevitable letdown.
This game sets up for a classic home dog SU winner as the Aggies use their extra week to get their game plan together and take advantage of Hawaii’s let down and get another home victory.
TCU- We all know how good TCU is so no need to go into detail about that. This pick is predicated on what I saw last week with Air Force. Their offensive was pretty well exposed by San Diego St. I don’t see the Falcons being able to make too many adjustments against a more physical, faster defense this week.
I usually like to take the points with an option team but I see this working against them this week as TCU will get a big lead early and then AF will be forced to change things up which will just make things worse.
SDSU – This is another game that I have been waiting for. I think a very underrated angle in college football is when a former HC gets dismissed and then goes to a conference foe as a coordinator. This is the case here as Rocky Long returns to NM as the D Coordinator for SDSU.
He has to feel a bit validated as NM has been a disaster since his departure. Look for a very spirited effort from his defense and the offense has an easy time putting up enough points to cover.
Georgia- This team was essentially left for dead after a poor September but don’t look now but they are in position to win the East if South Carolina stumbles again. Kentucky has been through a tough schedule and is very unlikely to be able to avoid a letdown against Georgia which looks weak on paper but will come into Lexington with a strong game.
LSU- They continue to find a way to get it done and have been non plussed on the road. Auburn has vaulted itself into the spotlight and this game all of sudden puts them in a position of being an upstart team to a legitimate contender. I think this will take away their carefree attitude and put a stress on them.
I am not calling for LSU to win but this will be at tense game and 5.5 is too many points but an LSU team that will be able to slow Auburn down quite a bit.
Va Tech- If the Dukies have not already done so, they will officially be switching gears to hoops after this beatdown.
Saturday, October 16, 2010
10/16 Part 2
Part 2
Top Picks
Washington -2 vs Oregon st
Ohio St -3.5 vs Wisconsin
Leans
Air Force pk vs SDST
Western Kentucky -2.5
Washington- Oregon st had a nice upset win last week but in my opinion they caught an Arizona at a bad time. This week they will be playing a motivated Washington team. The bloom is quickly coming off the rose after their win against usc and they need to get back on track. I think they will rise to the occasion in a close one and get the SU win.
Ohio st- I like the buckeyes here because when push comes to shove, I don’t see Wisconsin throwing the ball effectively when they need to. Wisconsin will have some nice runs and OSU will stop them as well and if Wisconsin wants to win, they will need to convert some long 3rd downs. I think that buckeyes offense will be able to get that done and wiscy won’t
Air Force- I view this game similar to the Pitt game. AF has done well with a difficult schedule and has played well on the road. Where SDST has yet to step up with a win in a tough spot. SDST is headed in the right direction but is not ready to win this one.
Western Kentucky- No other reason to pick this team other than that they have lost many many games in a row and now Vegas has made them a favorite. That works for me.
Saturday 10/16 Picks Part 1
Contenders vs Pretenders Part 1
That is the theme of my picks today. As we really start to focus on conference match ups the rest of the way, we will start to see who the really good teams are vs the teams who did it with smoke and mirrors in their non conference schedule.
Top Picks
Pittsburgh -2.5 vs Syracuse
Texas A&M -3.5 vs Missouri
Rice +9.5 vs Houston
Leans
Nebraska –9.5 vs Texas
Iowa/Mich over 54.5
Temple -20 vs Bowling Green
Pitt- This game is all about scheduling. Pitt took on a very formidable schedule while Syracuse got fat on creampuffs. No knock on Syracuse because that is really what you need to do when you have major rebuilding to do but it will catch up to them in conference play starting today.
A&M- This is a go against Missouri. Last week I was on them and pointed out it was their 5th straight home game to start the season. Now things get decidedly more difficult as they need to hit the road and play conference foes. Look for a rough start for the Tigers today against a pretty talented A&M program.
Rice- Rice has been on the wrong end of Houston beatings the last few seasons. Now things have broken right for Rice as Houston went from a darkhorse BCS candidate to a team decimated by injuries. If Rice is going to actually beat their neighbor, this is probably their best shot. I think they at least cover.
Nebraska- They are looking strong and would like nothing more than to bury Texas which we all remember knocked them out of BCS contention last year. I expect a nasty effort by the Huskers vs an overrated (still) Texas team.
Iowa/Mich- Last week Denard Robinson was not sharp and it cost his team. Rich Rod is in no position to let that happen again and I expect the MU offense to put up points however their defense is still porous and Iowa will put up points as well.
Temple- Temple is definitely a contender. They play a pretty good game against NIU last week but came up short while NIU played superb. The Owls will right the ship this week and serve notice to the rest of the league to pay attention.
That is the theme of my picks today. As we really start to focus on conference match ups the rest of the way, we will start to see who the really good teams are vs the teams who did it with smoke and mirrors in their non conference schedule.
Top Picks
Pittsburgh -2.5 vs Syracuse
Texas A&M -3.5 vs Missouri
Rice +9.5 vs Houston
Leans
Nebraska –9.5 vs Texas
Iowa/Mich over 54.5
Temple -20 vs Bowling Green
Pitt- This game is all about scheduling. Pitt took on a very formidable schedule while Syracuse got fat on creampuffs. No knock on Syracuse because that is really what you need to do when you have major rebuilding to do but it will catch up to them in conference play starting today.
A&M- This is a go against Missouri. Last week I was on them and pointed out it was their 5th straight home game to start the season. Now things get decidedly more difficult as they need to hit the road and play conference foes. Look for a rough start for the Tigers today against a pretty talented A&M program.
Rice- Rice has been on the wrong end of Houston beatings the last few seasons. Now things have broken right for Rice as Houston went from a darkhorse BCS candidate to a team decimated by injuries. If Rice is going to actually beat their neighbor, this is probably their best shot. I think they at least cover.
Nebraska- They are looking strong and would like nothing more than to bury Texas which we all remember knocked them out of BCS contention last year. I expect a nasty effort by the Huskers vs an overrated (still) Texas team.
Iowa/Mich- Last week Denard Robinson was not sharp and it cost his team. Rich Rod is in no position to let that happen again and I expect the MU offense to put up points however their defense is still porous and Iowa will put up points as well.
Temple- Temple is definitely a contender. They play a pretty good game against NIU last week but came up short while NIU played superb. The Owls will right the ship this week and serve notice to the rest of the league to pay attention.
Saturday, October 9, 2010
October 9 Picks Part 2
So far so good with NIU but a whole host games still in play and here's what I have tonight-
Missouri Oregon St
Saturday 10/9 Picks Part 2
Top Picks
USC/Stanford over 60.5
Leans
Kentucky +6
USC/Stanford Over- The definite strength of these teams are their offenses. I definitely enjoyed flipping back and forth between these teams last week and there were some definite things I observed. USC cannot defend the pass…at all. Stanford struggles with speedy running backs and receivers.
Well- Stanford throws the ball really well and USC has tremendous speed at WR and RB. If turnovers don’t derail this one, it flies over.
Kentucky- The wildcats have been fighting for respect in the mighty SEC and have yet to get over the hump. An ugly loss has done nothing to help that perception. However they have a nice opportunity here to take advantage of an Auburn team that has played well but may be a bit overrated.
Auburn has the glamour QB and is chock full of athletes but they will be playing against a team that is pretty talented as well and should be ready to play in front of the home crowd. Also Kentucky has beaten Auburn as well so they will not be lacking confidence. I am not calling for the outright upset but I do think they will compete to the end and get the ATS victory.
Missouri- Not totally sure what to make of this Missouri team. They got it together in the 2nd half vs Illinois but basically have been in hiding since then playing against subpar opponent with a mighty struggle vs SDST. Meanwhile, Colorado has played several high profile games. Despite the lack of evidence, I do look for Missouri to play well against a Colorado team that has not shown the ability to step up in class so far.
This also ends a stretch of 5 straight home games for Missouri so the coaching staff knows that it will get much harder after this one and they can’t afford not to get this conference win if they want to be able to compete with Nebraska.
Saturday October 9 Picks Part 1
Saturday 10/9 Picks Part 1
5*
Florida -6.5
Top Picks
Northern IL- 3.5
Mich/Mich St over 65
Leans
S. Carolina +7
Florida- It seems like a lot of college fans have a pretty short memory. I hear a lot of people on the fence on this game. The way I see it, is that Florida
However from reading comments it seems like Florida Florida Alabama
LSU continues to sneak by teams and their luck will run out this week. Urban Meyer I am sure has been on fire this week getting his team ready. LSU will not know what hit them.
The Huskies do not have a huge homefield advantage but they will be fired up and ready to go. I think the Huskies get it done by 6-10 points in this one.
S. Carolina- OK, this is barely a lean but I am going with Steve Spurrier to go deep into his bag of tricks and find a way to catch Bama off guard. Spurrier as we all know used to be the top dog in college football and maybe just maybe he gets to wear the crown again for one Saturday.
Saturday, October 2, 2010
10/2 Part 2
Well, my morning plays were as sick as I was. No fear, got a nap in, took some medicine and am ready for the big slate tonight.
Let's start right off with the big games-
Top Play-
Oregon -6.5 My heart would love to pick Stanford, I was on them last week but my mind says no. First reason is that winning is a process. Stanford is really beginning that process while Oregon has gone it through the last 2 years. Stanford has not had to go on the road and play in a game of this magnitude in quite a while. It won't be easy.
The stadium will be on fire and every positive for Oregon will be magnified and every Stanford mistake will be as well. The Cardinal will have a great season but this is not a spot to jump on their bandwagon.
Leans-
Alabama -8 This is another game where I think Florida's weakness at QB will play a big role. I give all the credit in the world to N. Saban for going on the road last week and figuring out a way to shut Ryan Mallet down. Returning home with the spotlight on, I look for another virtuoso peformance from his D against a still pretty green Florida QB. This game will not be quite as lopsided as Bama's win against Penn St but will be very similar. Also, I look for the Bama QB to bounce back after a pretty shoddy outing last week.
Washington +9.5 Of course the big talk in this one is about the revenge factor. However, when I see it I see a Washington team that will come in knowing they can compete and they will have a nice confidence factor. We have seen USC as an undisciplined team so far this year and i think that Sarkisian will have done everything he possibly can to have his team ready to take on his former colleague.
I think a small play on the money line +320 is in order as well.
Should be a great night of football!
Let's start right off with the big games-
Top Play-
Oregon -6.5 My heart would love to pick Stanford, I was on them last week but my mind says no. First reason is that winning is a process. Stanford is really beginning that process while Oregon has gone it through the last 2 years. Stanford has not had to go on the road and play in a game of this magnitude in quite a while. It won't be easy.
The stadium will be on fire and every positive for Oregon will be magnified and every Stanford mistake will be as well. The Cardinal will have a great season but this is not a spot to jump on their bandwagon.
Leans-
Alabama -8 This is another game where I think Florida's weakness at QB will play a big role. I give all the credit in the world to N. Saban for going on the road last week and figuring out a way to shut Ryan Mallet down. Returning home with the spotlight on, I look for another virtuoso peformance from his D against a still pretty green Florida QB. This game will not be quite as lopsided as Bama's win against Penn St but will be very similar. Also, I look for the Bama QB to bounce back after a pretty shoddy outing last week.
Washington +9.5 Of course the big talk in this one is about the revenge factor. However, when I see it I see a Washington team that will come in knowing they can compete and they will have a nice confidence factor. We have seen USC as an undisciplined team so far this year and i think that Sarkisian will have done everything he possibly can to have his team ready to take on his former colleague.
I think a small play on the money line +320 is in order as well.
Should be a great night of football!
Saturday 10/2 Picks Part 1
OK- I have been under the weather this week and have not done all my research so all Leans today- here are some early game sides:
Ohio St- 18 I don't see the illini scoring much and this game.
Clemson +3- With the week off after the tough Auburn loss, the tigers should be able to regroup. Miami's speed should not be a big factor against an athletic Clemson team.
More to follow....
Ohio St- 18 I don't see the illini scoring much and this game.
Clemson +3- With the week off after the tough Auburn loss, the tigers should be able to regroup. Miami's speed should not be a big factor against an athletic Clemson team.
More to follow....
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