I have been doing some testing in college basketball and am ready to start with some picks:
Leans:
Illinois -3.5 vs Maryland
Northwestern -1 vs Ga. Tech
Houston -1.5 vs LSU
Writeups:
All 3 picks are more go against the dogs. Maryland, Ga Tech and LSU are all struggling to find their way at the moment and the 3 favorites should be able to take advantage and get the covers.
Tuesday, November 29, 2011
Saturday, November 26, 2011
College Football Picks 11/26 Part 2
OK- gonna roll these out for tonight's games.
Top Pick
USC -15.5 vs UCLA
Leans:
Clemson +3.5 vs S. Carolina
Stanford/ND over 59.5
Writeups:
USC- They are playing really well and as we all know are not bowl eligible so a beatdown of cross city rival UCLA will have to do. The Trojans should have no trouble stopping UCLA's tepid offense and Matt Barkley is finally living up to the billing as a much heralded recruit and frosh starter.
Clemson- The tigers have put it on auto pilot lately but this in state rivalry game will get their juices flowing and they will return to form. South Carolina's offense has never gotten on track this year and the difference will be at QB where Taj Boyd will be able to make big plays and USC will have its moments but not enough to cover the 3.5.
Stanford is running on fumes but the team will rally around Andrew Luck in his final home game. Notre Dame has been playing solid football and will be hungry to take advantage of beating a top ten team. ND will take advantage of a depleted Stanford defense and Luck will play at his usual high level. I think who ever has the ball last wins this one but not before it sails over.
Top Pick
USC -15.5 vs UCLA
Leans:
Clemson +3.5 vs S. Carolina
Stanford/ND over 59.5
Writeups:
USC- They are playing really well and as we all know are not bowl eligible so a beatdown of cross city rival UCLA will have to do. The Trojans should have no trouble stopping UCLA's tepid offense and Matt Barkley is finally living up to the billing as a much heralded recruit and frosh starter.
Clemson- The tigers have put it on auto pilot lately but this in state rivalry game will get their juices flowing and they will return to form. South Carolina's offense has never gotten on track this year and the difference will be at QB where Taj Boyd will be able to make big plays and USC will have its moments but not enough to cover the 3.5.
Stanford is running on fumes but the team will rally around Andrew Luck in his final home game. Notre Dame has been playing solid football and will be hungry to take advantage of beating a top ten team. ND will take advantage of a depleted Stanford defense and Luck will play at his usual high level. I think who ever has the ball last wins this one but not before it sails over.
College Football Picks 11/26 Part 1
Hats off yesterday to LSU and Houston for not bowing to pressure and getting the job done.
Here are my morning picks.
Top Pick
Tennessee -7.5 vs Kentucky
Leans
Oklahoma -28.5 vs Iowa St
NU +6.5 vs. Michigan St
Writeups:
The Vols showed a lot of grit last week in getting the win over Vandy. After having a pretty rough season they have now placed themselves in a position for a bowl berth. Their last hurdle is a game against a pretty weak Kentucky team that has not done much all year.
With Tennessee's qb back and playing at full strength, I am looking for a strong offensive performance and an easy win today.
Oklahoma- Don't expect Iowa St to force a bunch of turnovers vs Oklahoma like they did vs Oklahoma St. The sooners will bring their A game today and take advantage of Iowa St who played over their heads last week and will return to earth this week.
NU- Funny spot for the Spartans, a win or loss here has no effect on their BCS hopes as they have already qualified for the Big 10 championship game. Combine that with NU playing at a pretty high level and you have the makings for the upset.
Here are my morning picks.
Top Pick
Tennessee -7.5 vs Kentucky
Leans
Oklahoma -28.5 vs Iowa St
NU +6.5 vs. Michigan St
Writeups:
The Vols showed a lot of grit last week in getting the win over Vandy. After having a pretty rough season they have now placed themselves in a position for a bowl berth. Their last hurdle is a game against a pretty weak Kentucky team that has not done much all year.
With Tennessee's qb back and playing at full strength, I am looking for a strong offensive performance and an easy win today.
Oklahoma- Don't expect Iowa St to force a bunch of turnovers vs Oklahoma like they did vs Oklahoma St. The sooners will bring their A game today and take advantage of Iowa St who played over their heads last week and will return to earth this week.
NU- Funny spot for the Spartans, a win or loss here has no effect on their BCS hopes as they have already qualified for the Big 10 championship game. Combine that with NU playing at a pretty high level and you have the makings for the upset.
Friday, November 25, 2011
Arkansas @ LSU + Houston Pick
Top Picks:
Arkansas +12.5 vs LSU
Arkansas/LSU over 52.5
Tulsa +3.5 vs Houston
Writeups:
More potential BCS chaos looms large with the Arkansa/LSU game. LSU has established itself as the top team and deserves to be in the driver seat for the BCS championship but this will be a real big challenge. First, these teams are familiar with each other and Arkansas is not going to be affected going into LSU's death valley stadium.
Beyond that aspect, LSU's schedule has not prepared them well to play a passing team like Arkansas'. They have shut down their opponent's run game and then overwhelmed their O lines and stopped the pass game. Arkansas will be a pass first team and then run second. This should not be underrated as both the coaches and players will need to adjust during the game to try to stop the passing game.
Another aspect will be to see if LSU's offense can step up and score to take the pressure off their defense. I expect that after a slow start LSU will be able to score. I also like Arkansas to score as well and the over should be pretty easily reached. It is pretty much agreed that LSU has the best defense yet the total is set pretty high so Vegas is expecting a big scoring game as well.
Bottom line take the points here and the over. Don't be shocked if Arkansas pulls the upset so a small play on the money +360 makes sense as well.
Tulsa- I can't say that I have followed Tulsa too closely and have been watching here and there so this pick is based pretty much on the line. Houston is undefeated and now talking about how they should be in the mix for a BCS championship shot. If they were really worthy then this game would just be a speed bump. However they are a small favorite against a decent Tulsa team. I am taking my cue from Vegas that Houston is going down in this one. If Bama or LSU were on the road against Tulsa, they would be a heavy favorite here.
Take the points in this one.
Arkansas +12.5 vs LSU
Arkansas/LSU over 52.5
Tulsa +3.5 vs Houston
Writeups:
More potential BCS chaos looms large with the Arkansa/LSU game. LSU has established itself as the top team and deserves to be in the driver seat for the BCS championship but this will be a real big challenge. First, these teams are familiar with each other and Arkansas is not going to be affected going into LSU's death valley stadium.
Beyond that aspect, LSU's schedule has not prepared them well to play a passing team like Arkansas'. They have shut down their opponent's run game and then overwhelmed their O lines and stopped the pass game. Arkansas will be a pass first team and then run second. This should not be underrated as both the coaches and players will need to adjust during the game to try to stop the passing game.
Another aspect will be to see if LSU's offense can step up and score to take the pressure off their defense. I expect that after a slow start LSU will be able to score. I also like Arkansas to score as well and the over should be pretty easily reached. It is pretty much agreed that LSU has the best defense yet the total is set pretty high so Vegas is expecting a big scoring game as well.
Bottom line take the points here and the over. Don't be shocked if Arkansas pulls the upset so a small play on the money +360 makes sense as well.
Tulsa- I can't say that I have followed Tulsa too closely and have been watching here and there so this pick is based pretty much on the line. Houston is undefeated and now talking about how they should be in the mix for a BCS championship shot. If they were really worthy then this game would just be a speed bump. However they are a small favorite against a decent Tulsa team. I am taking my cue from Vegas that Houston is going down in this one. If Bama or LSU were on the road against Tulsa, they would be a heavy favorite here.
Take the points in this one.
Saturday, November 19, 2011
College Football Picks- 11/19
Top Picks:
Purdue +2.5 vs Iowa
San Diego St +16.5 vs Boise St
Rutgers +3 vs Cincinnati
Leans:e
Oregon -14.5 vs USC
Vanderbilt -1.5 vs Tennessee
Writeups:
Purdue- It has taken a while (as in years) for this team to get headed back in the right direction but it seems that they finally have found a winning formula and some confidence. Not that this team is a world beater by any stretch but they have positioned themselves to qualify for a bowl game.
Their offense has gotten some consistency and their defense has stepped up. Iowa has been pretty inconsistent especially on the road. I like Purdue to play well in front of the home crowd and to use their focus on getting to a bowl to get the victory today.
SDST- If you remember I took Utah St as a s 5 star pick against Boise after Boise lost to Nevada last year. I got the cover but admittedly I was a bit lucky. I am going back to the well in this one and I like the Aztecs to take advantage of a Boise letdown and also for SDST to put a complete game together against a good team. The Aztecs have solid talent and are capable of beating Boise and tonight I think they will put a solid effort in and get the cover and I would not rule out a victory as well.
Rutgers- Cinci did lose their stud QB which is a factor but also it seems like in the the lame (and getting lamer) Big East that the conference leader loses every week and someone new takes the lead. Not that I am a big fan of Rutgers but they have enough talent to win at home against a wounded Cinci team and open the door for another Big East team to get in contention for the BCS bowl chance.
Oregon- I actually liked USC a bit in this one however with Ok St's loss last night, the Ducks are much closer to a national championship game then they were two weeks ago. I think the extra motivation will be enough for the Ducks to get the job done. USC is playing much better lately and can match up pretty well but will not get it done tonight.
Vandy- It has been a long time since Vandy has had a better football squad than the Vols (if ever) and I expect the Commodores to play their best and come through today.
Purdue +2.5 vs Iowa
San Diego St +16.5 vs Boise St
Rutgers +3 vs Cincinnati
Leans:e
Oregon -14.5 vs USC
Vanderbilt -1.5 vs Tennessee
Writeups:
Purdue- It has taken a while (as in years) for this team to get headed back in the right direction but it seems that they finally have found a winning formula and some confidence. Not that this team is a world beater by any stretch but they have positioned themselves to qualify for a bowl game.
Their offense has gotten some consistency and their defense has stepped up. Iowa has been pretty inconsistent especially on the road. I like Purdue to play well in front of the home crowd and to use their focus on getting to a bowl to get the victory today.
SDST- If you remember I took Utah St as a s 5 star pick against Boise after Boise lost to Nevada last year. I got the cover but admittedly I was a bit lucky. I am going back to the well in this one and I like the Aztecs to take advantage of a Boise letdown and also for SDST to put a complete game together against a good team. The Aztecs have solid talent and are capable of beating Boise and tonight I think they will put a solid effort in and get the cover and I would not rule out a victory as well.
Rutgers- Cinci did lose their stud QB which is a factor but also it seems like in the the lame (and getting lamer) Big East that the conference leader loses every week and someone new takes the lead. Not that I am a big fan of Rutgers but they have enough talent to win at home against a wounded Cinci team and open the door for another Big East team to get in contention for the BCS bowl chance.
Oregon- I actually liked USC a bit in this one however with Ok St's loss last night, the Ducks are much closer to a national championship game then they were two weeks ago. I think the extra motivation will be enough for the Ducks to get the job done. USC is playing much better lately and can match up pretty well but will not get it done tonight.
Vandy- It has been a long time since Vandy has had a better football squad than the Vols (if ever) and I expect the Commodores to play their best and come through today.
Tuesday, November 15, 2011
Ball St @ Northern Illinois Pick
Getting back into the action tonight with a lean.
NIU -16.5 vs Ball St
The NIU huskies return home after 3 straight away and they won all 3 road games and I like their momentum to carry them easily past Ball St. NIU has nice talent and they are now gelling under their new coach. Ball St has shown some flashes this year but does not have the horsepower to handle an NIU team that is peaking.
NIU -16.5 vs Ball St
The NIU huskies return home after 3 straight away and they won all 3 road games and I like their momentum to carry them easily past Ball St. NIU has nice talent and they are now gelling under their new coach. Ball St has shown some flashes this year but does not have the horsepower to handle an NIU team that is peaking.
Saturday, November 5, 2011
College Football Picks 11-5 Part 2
Here are my picks for the rest of the day.
Top Picks:
LSU +5 vs Bama and over 41.5- See LSU @ Bama post
Arkansas -5 vs S. Carolina
Wake Forest Team Total over 21
Leans:
Missouri +2,5 vs Baylor
Writeups:
Although most eyes will be on LSU/Bama this is pretty good matchup in the SEC as well. Arkansas is getting their act together and will be a threat the rest of the way in the SEC and could have a big impact on the BCS championship game when they play LSU to end the regular season. I think their offense will be too much as the game wears on against South Carolina. South Carolina has a stout defense but their offense is a bit depleted and as they stay on the field for long stretches, Arkansas will be able to break through.
Wake Forest- Big opportunity here for the Demon Deacons even if this game will be overshadowed. Even with out a lot of hype, the Deacons will be ready. They are on offensive focused team and will dig deep and be able to score on ND. ND should win here but they will not shut down the Deacon's offense to hold them under 21.
Mizzoo- Going with the better defense here. Baylor seems to be running on fumes right now and it will be a good spot for Missouri to get a much needed win.
Top Picks:
LSU +5 vs Bama and over 41.5- See LSU @ Bama post
Arkansas -5 vs S. Carolina
Wake Forest Team Total over 21
Leans:
Missouri +2,5 vs Baylor
Writeups:
Although most eyes will be on LSU/Bama this is pretty good matchup in the SEC as well. Arkansas is getting their act together and will be a threat the rest of the way in the SEC and could have a big impact on the BCS championship game when they play LSU to end the regular season. I think their offense will be too much as the game wears on against South Carolina. South Carolina has a stout defense but their offense is a bit depleted and as they stay on the field for long stretches, Arkansas will be able to break through.
Wake Forest- Big opportunity here for the Demon Deacons even if this game will be overshadowed. Even with out a lot of hype, the Deacons will be ready. They are on offensive focused team and will dig deep and be able to score on ND. ND should win here but they will not shut down the Deacon's offense to hold them under 21.
Mizzoo- Going with the better defense here. Baylor seems to be running on fumes right now and it will be a good spot for Missouri to get a much needed win.
LSU @ Alabama Props
If you have followed this blog then you probably seen my prop breakdowns of the NCAA BCS championship game and the superbowl.
Although LSU @ Bama is not the national championship game, it is definitely prop worthy.
Here are my thoughts on the game and how to profit from the different props.
I think LSU will win the game 24-20 so I like the points and the over which are LSU +5 and 41.
I think Bama will get off to a fast start and will score first (-145). Since I like LSU to win then I like the team that scores first loses (+145).
Trent Richardson of Bama is a stud and he will be a work horse. I think he will score a TD in the first half (-120) will also get one in the 2nd half (-140). For the Bama QB McCarron, I think he will struggle but will still have a decent passing day stat wise as he will dump it off to Richardson quite a bit so take him for over 205.5 yards (+115)
For LSU, I think it will be a team effort on offense both QB's will contribute so take Lee under 150 passing yards (-150). I do like LSU to have a stand out effort from their WR Randall regardless of who is at QB so take him for over 66.5 yards and over 4.5 catches (+140 and +150).
Should be a great game.
Although LSU @ Bama is not the national championship game, it is definitely prop worthy.
Here are my thoughts on the game and how to profit from the different props.
I think LSU will win the game 24-20 so I like the points and the over which are LSU +5 and 41.
I think Bama will get off to a fast start and will score first (-145). Since I like LSU to win then I like the team that scores first loses (+145).
Trent Richardson of Bama is a stud and he will be a work horse. I think he will score a TD in the first half (-120) will also get one in the 2nd half (-140). For the Bama QB McCarron, I think he will struggle but will still have a decent passing day stat wise as he will dump it off to Richardson quite a bit so take him for over 205.5 yards (+115)
For LSU, I think it will be a team effort on offense both QB's will contribute so take Lee under 150 passing yards (-150). I do like LSU to have a stand out effort from their WR Randall regardless of who is at QB so take him for over 66.5 yards and over 4.5 catches (+140 and +150).
Should be a great game.
College Football Picks- 11/5 Part 1
USC came through nicely and my morning pick goes along that same vein.
Top Pick:
Ohio St -27.5 vs Indiana
A lot of us on our Ohio St but I think with good reason. The Hoosiers have pretty much thrown in the towel on winning this year and the head coach is concentrating on getting his younger players experience and is throwing them to the wolves.
Should not be an entertaining games except those cheering for the Buckeyes. Look for a resounding win for OSU in this one.
Top Pick:
Ohio St -27.5 vs Indiana
A lot of us on our Ohio St but I think with good reason. The Hoosiers have pretty much thrown in the towel on winning this year and the head coach is concentrating on getting his younger players experience and is throwing them to the wolves.
Should not be an entertaining games except those cheering for the Buckeyes. Look for a resounding win for OSU in this one.
Friday, November 4, 2011
Friday Night Pick
Unfortunately UCF could not close last night so moving on Friday night's game.
Lean
USC -20 vs Colorado
I have not had the greatest success in recent history picking USC games so throwing that caveat out there. Although I was on the right side last week picking against them (Luckily I must add)
There are a couple factors to consider in this one. First USC is much, much, much more talented than CU is. 2nd, USC is coming off a pretty rough loss when they could have taken down Stanford and could be in letdown mode. The game is on national TV so it is pretty crucial for both coaches to have a good showing for recruiting purposes. Finally, CU is having a really bad season and their motivation is pretty questionable.
I am leaning on the talent differential and that CU is ready to check out and look to the off season. I really don't see CU rising up in this one and even if USC gets off to a slow start, winning by 3 TD's should not be a big difficulty.
Lean
USC -20 vs Colorado
I have not had the greatest success in recent history picking USC games so throwing that caveat out there. Although I was on the right side last week picking against them (Luckily I must add)
There are a couple factors to consider in this one. First USC is much, much, much more talented than CU is. 2nd, USC is coming off a pretty rough loss when they could have taken down Stanford and could be in letdown mode. The game is on national TV so it is pretty crucial for both coaches to have a good showing for recruiting purposes. Finally, CU is having a really bad season and their motivation is pretty questionable.
I am leaning on the talent differential and that CU is ready to check out and look to the off season. I really don't see CU rising up in this one and even if USC gets off to a slow start, winning by 3 TD's should not be a big difficulty.
Thursday, November 3, 2011
Thursday Night Winner - Nov 3
Lean:
UCF -2 vs Tulsa
Let's get the weekend started right with a winner. UCF has had a bit of a subpar year so far but is in position to finish strong and get back to another bowl game. Tulsa is coming on as well and will not be a push over however I am confident that UCF will use the Thursday night spotlight to their advantage, get a good home field advantage and win a tight by more than 2 although probably not much more than 2.
Back on Saturday with a full slate.
UCF -2 vs Tulsa
Let's get the weekend started right with a winner. UCF has had a bit of a subpar year so far but is in position to finish strong and get back to another bowl game. Tulsa is coming on as well and will not be a push over however I am confident that UCF will use the Thursday night spotlight to their advantage, get a good home field advantage and win a tight by more than 2 although probably not much more than 2.
Back on Saturday with a full slate.
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