4th of July week end marks my official start of college football research (although I never turn off college football throughout the year) and here are my initial look at games that have caught my eye for week 1.
These picks will be firmed up, changed, solidified, etc as we move closer and more information comes together. The lines are courtesy of http://pregame.com/lines_odds/default.aspx
UNLV +17 vs Minnesota- For first games of the season, I like to start with coaches. Which coaches are under pressure, which coaches are new, which coaches have stockpiled talent and are read to breakout. UNLV's coach Hauck is under a combo of being under pressure and also has gotten several recruitment classes under his belt and has stockpiled some talent.
Everyone knows that he needs to win this season. Maybe he doesn't have to get to a bowl game be he needs to be close. I expect the Rebels to be sharp in their opener. A win would be huge but they need to show that they are ready to be competitive. Minnesota is in a bit of a transition. They have solid talent but this is not a game they have circled and will be a bit vulnerable if the Rebels can bring their A game.
Utah St +4.5 vs Utah- The Aggies enjoyed the proverbial magical season so that was so good that their head coach got a bigger gig at Wisconsin. This would be the kind of team I might fade with an unproven coach coming but the Aggies have a lot of key players returning and essentially kept much of their coaching staff together. With that in mind, I do like the Aggies to pick up where they left off.
Utah has lost a little of their luster and they made a move that I never like. The team struggled and they made a scapegoat out of their offensive coordinator and hired a new one. The new OC is Dennis Erickson and he is supposed to come in and reinvigorate the offense. The problem though is that they have been losing the recruiting battle and their talent is a problem.
Look for the Aggies behind stud qb Keeton come into this game and leave with a big first game win.
Washington -2.5 vs Boise St- This one is based on the initial line. The Broncos will come out ranked in the top 25 while Washington will be considered a 2nd tier team in the Pac 12. As much as I like to think I know about college football, Vegas knows considerably more and there is a reason why they made the Huskies a favorite.
Northwestern -8.5 vs California- Wow, the Wildcats are more than a TD favorite on the road against a Pac 12 team. That is a pretty rare sight. Cal falls into fade the new coach theory. Hiring Sonny Dykes may be a brilliant move however he has a new system to install, has to build a new culture and I imagine their is quite a culture shock between coaching football in Louisianna and northern California.
NU is coming into the season full of swagger, coming off their first bowl win in recent history. NU is firmly entrenched in their system and has many key players coming back.
This should be a solid first win for the Wildcats who have their eyes on another January 1st bowl win.
