5* Plays
BYU -+4 vs Nevada
Bama/Arkansa over 55
Top Plays
Stanford -4.5 vs Notre Dame
Fresno St + 2.5 vs Ole Miss
Va Tech -4.5 vs Boston College
Oregon -11.5 vs Arizona St.
Leans
NC St +8.5 vs Ga Tech
Iowa -28 vs Ball St
Colorado St +7.5 vs Idaho
Writeups
BYU- this is a nice spot for the Cougars. Sure they laid an egg against Florida St but that was on the road. This game will be back at home against a team that has played well at home but has not done it on the road. The Cougars will not be thinking of themselves as an underdog here and will come with the SU victory.
Don’t be surprised to see a completely different Wolfpack team on the road here and for their high powered offense to sputter before the rabid home crowd.
Bama/Arkansas over- Last year Bama was all about their defense. This year they have a stellar offense and we know what Arkansas can do. I think this will be quite a game with a lot of big plays on both sides of the ball and special teams. I don’t see either defense being able to stop the other team. Looking at their schedules, neither team has played a decent offensive team so don’t be surprised by a high scoring game.
Stanford- Like Iowa, ND lost a tough game last week. Unlike Iowa, I don’t see the Irish bouncing back against Stanford. I have seen quite a few pundits saying that Stanford will be looking ahead or having a let down. I don’t see that and likely see the opposite. A convincing win over ND is always a feather in the cap.
The Cardinal are getting the respect they deserve slowly and this game will put them in the spotlight. ND has not faced a sophisticated pass offense and they will need a brilliant offensive performance to keep it close. I don’t think that will happen…at all.
Fresno St- We all know the Bulldogs motto of going any place any time for a game. This is a real nice spot for them to continue to build on that legend. Ole Miss is usually a formidable place to come and play but Fresno will not be in awe and they have more talent than the rebels. The Fresno St qb has waited patiently for his shot and is making the most of it and will be the best QB on the field and will lead his team to victory.
Va Tech – OK, I think the light finally went on for the Hokies last week. Their loss to JMU was really a fluke and now it is time for this team to focus on winning the ACC. Even if the Hokies had beat Boise St they would not really have been in contention for the national championship game long term.
However, they are a legitimate threat to win the ACC. Boston College is getting better and is settling down to be a good team but Va Tech has the edge in talent and that will show over the 4 quarters.
Oregon- I am going to stay with the hot hand here. It is a road game in conference but Oregon has a lot of firepower that I don’t see the home team being able to match over all 4 quarters. Also like Stanford this is a nice tuneup for next week’s game which will likely decide the PAC 10.
North Carolina St- The points look good to me with this matchup. These teams are pretty evenly matched and I don’t see the Tech homefield advantage being that significant. The Wolfpack are lead by a veteran QB who should keep his composure. I am not calling for NC st to win the game but I feel they will keep it within a TD.
Iowa- Tough loss last week for the Hawkeyes as many of saw. Some teams would start to fold after a loss like that but I am confident that this Hawkeye team will bounce back strong. Ball St does not have a lot going on and this game represents a pay day as opposed to them having a legitimate shot at winning. Look for a six TD victory.
Colorado St- Dare I really give this team out again after 2 ATS drubbings. The reason I like them is simply because of the line. Looking at how they played and how Idaho has played, they should be a bigger dog. Yet, the line is only started at 7 and has not moved up. In their first game at home, they get their first ATS win.
Saturday, September 25, 2010
Monday, September 20, 2010
Recap
Well, if i could simply make my leans my top picks and 5 star play then I would be in great shape. The reality is that has not happened so back to work.
Looking at the initial lines, I see some nice opportunities hear and dare I say that I like Colorado St yet again!!??
Be back soon with some winners.
Looking at the initial lines, I see some nice opportunities hear and dare I say that I like Colorado St yet again!!??
Be back soon with some winners.
Saturday, September 18, 2010
Saturday September 18 Picks
5 Star Play
Georgia -2 vs Arkansas- The pundits have pointed out all of the reasons to like Arkansas- a stud qb, the revenge factor, Georgia’s inexperience at QB, AJ Green’s ineligibility, the list goes on. Despite all of that Vegas made Georgia a solid favorite when they easily could have made Arkansas the favorite. This will be another “upset” when in reality the favored team will win.
Top Plays
Colorado St +8 vs Miami, Oh
Nebraska/Washington over 53
Notre Dame +3.5 vs Mich St.
Miss St +7.5 vs LSU
Leans
West Virgina -10 vs Maryland
Arizona -1 vs Iowa
Houston -3 vs UCLA
Tulsa/Ok St over 6
To have a side
Florida/Tenn under 45
Writeups
Colorado St- As shown by last night’s game, Nevada is pretty good and Colorado is decent. The same can’t be said for Miami, Oh. In my opinion this is a pretty even matchup and CSU has a good shot at winning and at least should keep it close and get an easy cover.
Neb/Wash- I have gone back and forth on this one. I think both teams offenses will show up. I am not sure who will make the critical mistakes but I think both teams will score enough to hit the over.
Notre Dame- This is the type of game that ND brought Kelly in to win. ND has equal or a little better talent than MSU. It is Kelly’s job to get this team ready and to get back on track. I am confident that he will do that.
Mississippi St- This is a great opportunity for the Bulldogs to earn respect that they have not had in many years. LSU seems to get the break they need but I will not be surprised to see Miss St. get the breaks they need and win the game.
WVU- I am basing this on the line. Maryland has played well yet they are a big dog. I think there is a reason for that.
Houston- I am just not buying what UCLA is selling yet. This is a bad time to be facing a high powered offense. Even if Keenum does not play or is limited, I think they will put up too many points for the Bruins to hang.
Arizona- a tough pick here but I think they step up and get and the win.
Tulsa/OK St- This does look to be a shootout and I am going with the big number.
Thursday, September 16, 2010
Thursday Night 9/16
Lean- Cincinnati +2
Just a quick writeup- NC state does not have the offensive firepower to win this game against a cinci team that was embarrassed on the road. They will be ready. NC State forced 5 turnovers yet their offense could only come up with 14 points and needed a defensive TD. Don't look for Cinci to be so generous.
Just a quick writeup- NC state does not have the offensive firepower to win this game against a cinci team that was embarrassed on the road. They will be ready. NC State forced 5 turnovers yet their offense could only come up with 14 points and needed a defensive TD. Don't look for Cinci to be so generous.
Sunday, September 12, 2010
Recap September 11
Overall it was a successful Saturday despite a couple of clunkers.
5-3 for the day- low light was missing on my top pick in Iowa St and highlight was rolling on all 3 leans. (California, Bama & Oregon)
Time to enjoy the pro games today.
I just put out my pro picks for fun as you can find other pro handicappers that are better than me.
I am taking the Bears/Detroit Over 44.5 and Falcons pick vs Pittsburgh.
Saturday, September 11, 2010
Saturday September 11 Picks
Time to head to the week 2.
I have to say it is has been along time since I did not pick a side on a Thursday or Friday night game.
This is in large part to the game 2 being trap week. Week 1 always gives some false starts when teams don’t look nearly as good or bad in the second week.
My theme for this week is to ID the traps and go the other way.
5 Star picks
None this week, getting closer though
Top Plays
Iowa st +13.5 vs Iowa
Ga Tech -13.5 vs Kansas
Air Force -1 vs Byu
Bama -12 vs Penn St
USC -20 vs Virginia
Leans
E. Carolina -13 vs Memphis
California -10 vs Colorado
Oregon -12 vs Tennessee
Just to have a side
Georgia +3 (almost a lean)
Florida St. +7
Writeups
Iowa St- Very quietly Iowa St has been getting steadily better. They got to a bowl game last year and won it. However, this team is flying under the radar and is pretty much and unknown to the fans at large.
Well this is their big opportunity to get on the map. Iowa has played down to their competition and I see Iowa St with all of the edge here. I think it will be a dogfight to the end.
Ga Tech- I see this team as highly undervalued. They really did not lose much talent from last year and they really don’t tend to miss key players because the system is set up for the next guy to step in.
Kansas on the other hand really seems to be lost in the new system. The old adage is that you improve the most between the first week and second week.
Honestly in this case, Kansas has way too far to go to get where they need to be to keep this game close over all 4 quarters.
Air Force- You will know this is a winning pick when AF has the lead and the announcers describes their lead an upset. Perception leads you to believe that BYU is a much higher ranked team. You hear things about BYU but pretty rarely about AF. Well Vegas knows about both teams and made AF a favorite. I am just following their lead on this one.
Alabama- Always a danger to bet the big games as this game has been dissected by the oddsmakers. I guess it would be embarrassing to Joe Pa to make his team a 21 point dog to Bama but I think that is a more realistic spread. Penn St brings a freshman QB into this one. That is very tough sledding. He will have to play an unbelievable game for them to have a chance, anything less will be a blowout.
USC- I am taking them again. I give a lot credit to Hawaii for really taking it to SC with their pass game. I don’t see that kind of effort from UVA on Saturday. They are in the midst of getting used to a new HC and I think that will hold them back from being competitive. I look for a “vast” improvement in Kiffin’s D and an easy cover.
E. Carolina- There was a bit of debate whether Miss St was that good or Memphis that bad last week. My presumption in picking Miss St was that Memphis was that bad. I think this game will help prove Memphis has a long season ahead of them.
California- This is almost purely based on the line. Colorado had a strong showing last week and yet they come out as a 10 point dog. I think that is a pretty nice trap for those jumping on the CU bandwagon.
Oregon- Another tough spread, but I am confident that Oregon is for real. The whole Masoli thing seems to be overrated. For Oregon that was over a long time ago and they have moved on quite nicely. It will be tough for a while but as long as the ducks don’t turn it over, they will cover the spread.
I have to say it is has been along time since I did not pick a side on a Thursday or Friday night game.
This is in large part to the game 2 being trap week. Week 1 always gives some false starts when teams don’t look nearly as good or bad in the second week.
My theme for this week is to ID the traps and go the other way.
5 Star picks
None this week, getting closer though
Top Plays
Iowa st +13.5 vs Iowa
Ga Tech -13.5 vs Kansas
Air Force -1 vs Byu
Bama -12 vs Penn St
USC -20 vs Virginia
Leans
E. Carolina -13 vs Memphis
California -10 vs Colorado
Oregon -12 vs Tennessee
Just to have a side
Georgia +3 (almost a lean)
Florida St. +7
Writeups
Iowa St- Very quietly Iowa St has been getting steadily better. They got to a bowl game last year and won it. However, this team is flying under the radar and is pretty much and unknown to the fans at large.
Well this is their big opportunity to get on the map. Iowa has played down to their competition and I see Iowa St with all of the edge here. I think it will be a dogfight to the end.
Ga Tech- I see this team as highly undervalued. They really did not lose much talent from last year and they really don’t tend to miss key players because the system is set up for the next guy to step in.
Kansas on the other hand really seems to be lost in the new system. The old adage is that you improve the most between the first week and second week.
Honestly in this case, Kansas has way too far to go to get where they need to be to keep this game close over all 4 quarters.
Air Force- You will know this is a winning pick when AF has the lead and the announcers describes their lead an upset. Perception leads you to believe that BYU is a much higher ranked team. You hear things about BYU but pretty rarely about AF. Well Vegas knows about both teams and made AF a favorite. I am just following their lead on this one.
Alabama- Always a danger to bet the big games as this game has been dissected by the oddsmakers. I guess it would be embarrassing to Joe Pa to make his team a 21 point dog to Bama but I think that is a more realistic spread. Penn St brings a freshman QB into this one. That is very tough sledding. He will have to play an unbelievable game for them to have a chance, anything less will be a blowout.
USC- I am taking them again. I give a lot credit to Hawaii for really taking it to SC with their pass game. I don’t see that kind of effort from UVA on Saturday. They are in the midst of getting used to a new HC and I think that will hold them back from being competitive. I look for a “vast” improvement in Kiffin’s D and an easy cover.
E. Carolina- There was a bit of debate whether Miss St was that good or Memphis that bad last week. My presumption in picking Miss St was that Memphis was that bad. I think this game will help prove Memphis has a long season ahead of them.
California- This is almost purely based on the line. Colorado had a strong showing last week and yet they come out as a 10 point dog. I think that is a pretty nice trap for those jumping on the CU bandwagon.
Oregon- Another tough spread, but I am confident that Oregon is for real. The whole Masoli thing seems to be overrated. For Oregon that was over a long time ago and they have moved on quite nicely. It will be tough for a while but as long as the ducks don’t turn it over, they will cover the spread.
Monday, September 6, 2010
Labor Day Picks
I have to say that I have been looking at these 2 games back in July and it has taken me until today to get comfortable making picks.
For Navy and Maryland, I am going to take Maryland on a lean.
I am not sure if this meets the definition of a trend but so far coaches on the “hot” seat have put forward a good showing and covered the spread. This includes Michigan, Illinois, and Colorado. Maryland’s coach is of course on this list as well. I think Maryland will be able to move the ball through the air well enough and will have put a lot of time in practice to stopping the option as they also have W. Virginia on the schedule in 2 weeks and there will be some similarities.
I am not going big on this game but do think Maryland will keep it close.
Va Tech and Boise St-
Lots to consider in this game and the money seems to be flowing in on Va tech. I don’t think the location of the game gives Va Tech a big edge. Both teams have been playing in bowls and eventhough their will be more Va Tech backers there, I think both teams know how to handle playing on a neutral field. Then there is Va Tech’s 0-21 record against top 5 teams. The tricky thing about is determining whether Boise is really a top 5 team.
I think we will see a ball control game from both sides. I don’t think either head coach wants to have their defense on the field for extended periods of time. I also don’t think either team will take any big chances early in the game and we will see a field position battle. Ultimately, I don’t like the fact that Va Tech will need to rely on their offense to win this game. Usually they are defensive minded team and the offense just helps.
I have a strong play on the under 52 (although I am going to wait to see if it keeps rising) and a lean on Boise St +1.5.
For Navy and Maryland, I am going to take Maryland on a lean.
I am not sure if this meets the definition of a trend but so far coaches on the “hot” seat have put forward a good showing and covered the spread. This includes Michigan, Illinois, and Colorado. Maryland’s coach is of course on this list as well. I think Maryland will be able to move the ball through the air well enough and will have put a lot of time in practice to stopping the option as they also have W. Virginia on the schedule in 2 weeks and there will be some similarities.
I am not going big on this game but do think Maryland will keep it close.
Va Tech and Boise St-
Lots to consider in this game and the money seems to be flowing in on Va tech. I don’t think the location of the game gives Va Tech a big edge. Both teams have been playing in bowls and eventhough their will be more Va Tech backers there, I think both teams know how to handle playing on a neutral field. Then there is Va Tech’s 0-21 record against top 5 teams. The tricky thing about is determining whether Boise is really a top 5 team.
I think we will see a ball control game from both sides. I don’t think either head coach wants to have their defense on the field for extended periods of time. I also don’t think either team will take any big chances early in the game and we will see a field position battle. Ultimately, I don’t like the fact that Va Tech will need to rely on their offense to win this game. Usually they are defensive minded team and the offense just helps.
I have a strong play on the under 52 (although I am going to wait to see if it keeps rising) and a lean on Boise St +1.5.
Sunday, September 5, 2010
9-4 Recap
Looking back at Saturday, things did not go exactly as planned so here is quick recap:
I was on the money with the Miss State and Oregon st picks as well as the Nebraska game.
I had a couple of dog picks with Colorado St and Cincinnati. CSU was thoroughly outcoached which I did not see coming but give credit to CU for having a much better game plan and executing it. Fresno St just plain beat up Cinci which I did not expect. So live and learn for next week.
I also had Wisconsin which was -21 when I posted but I caught the line at 20 so officially it was a loss although it went as a push for me. This game was a bad beat as Wisconsin gave UNLV 14 points on turnovers but that is how things go sometimes.
New Mexico was a huge bust and somewhat comical to see a D1 team get beat by 72!
For the just to have a side games, no comments on those as those are not real recommendations.
No picks for me today, I will have a side tomorrow for the Boise St – Va Tech tilt.
So overall a lackluster opening weekend but plenty of games on the horizon.
I was on the money with the Miss State and Oregon st picks as well as the Nebraska game.
I had a couple of dog picks with Colorado St and Cincinnati. CSU was thoroughly outcoached which I did not see coming but give credit to CU for having a much better game plan and executing it. Fresno St just plain beat up Cinci which I did not expect. So live and learn for next week.
I also had Wisconsin which was -21 when I posted but I caught the line at 20 so officially it was a loss although it went as a push for me. This game was a bad beat as Wisconsin gave UNLV 14 points on turnovers but that is how things go sometimes.
New Mexico was a huge bust and somewhat comical to see a D1 team get beat by 72!
For the just to have a side games, no comments on those as those are not real recommendations.
No picks for me today, I will have a side tomorrow for the Boise St – Va Tech tilt.
So overall a lackluster opening weekend but plenty of games on the horizon.
Saturday, September 4, 2010
Saturday September 4th Picks
Here are my Saturday plays-
5 Star Plays
None this week
Top Plays
Wisconsin -21 vs UNLV
Colorado St. +12 vs Colorado
Nebraska -37.5 vs W. Kentucky
Oregon st. +12.5 vs TCU
Cinci +2.5 vs Fresno st.
Leans-
Miss St- 21 vs Memphis
New Mexico +35
Just to have a side
Uconn +3
LSU -8
ND/Purdue over
Write Ups
Wisconsin- 21- Wisconsin has big hopes this year and will be relying on a high powered offense as they wait for the defense to come together. UNLV has a big rebuilding job and is in the process of changing their offense from the spread to a traditional offense. I don’t see the rebels pushing Wisconsin off the ball and not score enough to keep it within the number
Colorado st +12 the Rams are looking to atone for last year’s season where they were not able to win in conference and had a rough season. The buffaloes are playing out the string as they wait for a new coach to come in and move to the Pac 10. I like this game to come down to the last minute and for the rams to have a chance at the SU win.
Nebraska -37.5 This is a darkhorse national contender in my opinion. This is a big number but I think the 2nd and 3rd teams will keep scoring for the huskers and cover the number against an undermanned team with a head coach making his debut.
Oregon St +12.5- TCU is touted as a national contender however I have not seen them step up consistently against top teams. Oregon St has a lot of talent and if they can pressure the TCU qb Dalton then I think they can slow the frogs and have a good shot at winning.
Miss St- This is another team primed for a breakout. Memphis has a regime change and will show the effects of recent poor recruiting.
Cinci +2.5- This is still a very talented team and they brought in an underrated coach who should be a long term fit for this program. Fresno St has slowly but surely lost their luster over the years and I think Cinci has a big edge in talent and that will show up tonight.
Miss St- This is another team primed for a breakout. Memphis has a regime change and will show the effects of recent poor recruiting.
New Mexico +35- no where to go but up for Los Lobos. I think they will be improved and able to cover the big number…barely.
5 Star Plays
None this week
Top Plays
Wisconsin -21 vs UNLV
Colorado St. +12 vs Colorado
Nebraska -37.5 vs W. Kentucky
Oregon st. +12.5 vs TCU
Cinci +2.5 vs Fresno st.
Leans-
Miss St- 21 vs Memphis
New Mexico +35
Just to have a side
Uconn +3
LSU -8
ND/Purdue over
Write Ups
Wisconsin- 21- Wisconsin has big hopes this year and will be relying on a high powered offense as they wait for the defense to come together. UNLV has a big rebuilding job and is in the process of changing their offense from the spread to a traditional offense. I don’t see the rebels pushing Wisconsin off the ball and not score enough to keep it within the number
Colorado st +12 the Rams are looking to atone for last year’s season where they were not able to win in conference and had a rough season. The buffaloes are playing out the string as they wait for a new coach to come in and move to the Pac 10. I like this game to come down to the last minute and for the rams to have a chance at the SU win.
Nebraska -37.5 This is a darkhorse national contender in my opinion. This is a big number but I think the 2nd and 3rd teams will keep scoring for the huskers and cover the number against an undermanned team with a head coach making his debut.
Oregon St +12.5- TCU is touted as a national contender however I have not seen them step up consistently against top teams. Oregon St has a lot of talent and if they can pressure the TCU qb Dalton then I think they can slow the frogs and have a good shot at winning.
Miss St- This is another team primed for a breakout. Memphis has a regime change and will show the effects of recent poor recruiting.
Cinci +2.5- This is still a very talented team and they brought in an underrated coach who should be a long term fit for this program. Fresno St has slowly but surely lost their luster over the years and I think Cinci has a big edge in talent and that will show up tonight.
Miss St- This is another team primed for a breakout. Memphis has a regime change and will show the effects of recent poor recruiting.
New Mexico +35- no where to go but up for Los Lobos. I think they will be improved and able to cover the big number…barely.
Wednesday, September 1, 2010
September 2nd Games
OK- It is time to get the season started.
Unfortunately, my first big pick of the season had to be scrapped when the MTSU QB was suspended. They still may take down Minnesota but for me that game is a stay away.
So for the opening night, I really have only one official pick and that is USC -21 vs Hawaii. I think we have all had enough of the USC woes but really they should not be that affected this year. I am not a Lane Kiffin fan but I think he is savvy enough to get the talent on this team to perform.
Hawaii is a team that has been in a steady decline since June Jones left. The current coach has not been able to recruit or run the offense the way Jones did and i think this will likely be his last year with Hawaii.
Long story short- this is a real mismatch and 3 td's does not seem like a big price to pay. I will make this pick a lean though.
Lean- USC -21 vs Hawaill
I will also be keeping a close eye on Pitt/Utah. I don't have a play on this one but I think it is worth watching to see how the QB's play and if Dion Lewis of Pitt can keep the magic going from last year.
Plenty more to come for the Saturday games!
Unfortunately, my first big pick of the season had to be scrapped when the MTSU QB was suspended. They still may take down Minnesota but for me that game is a stay away.
So for the opening night, I really have only one official pick and that is USC -21 vs Hawaii. I think we have all had enough of the USC woes but really they should not be that affected this year. I am not a Lane Kiffin fan but I think he is savvy enough to get the talent on this team to perform.
Hawaii is a team that has been in a steady decline since June Jones left. The current coach has not been able to recruit or run the offense the way Jones did and i think this will likely be his last year with Hawaii.
Long story short- this is a real mismatch and 3 td's does not seem like a big price to pay. I will make this pick a lean though.
Lean- USC -21 vs Hawaill
I will also be keeping a close eye on Pitt/Utah. I don't have a play on this one but I think it is worth watching to see how the QB's play and if Dion Lewis of Pitt can keep the magic going from last year.
Plenty more to come for the Saturday games!
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