Two more championship games on tap tonight. Here are my sides.
Top Pick
Stanford -8
Kent St/Northern ILL over 57.5
Lean
Kent St +7.5
Writeup:
Stanford- Initially when I saw the opening line, I thought Stanford -10 was pretty high and was leaning towards UCLA. However looking back at their game last week, I don't see UCLA having enough time to really make the adjustments they need to make to go on the road and win this game. Essentially, Stanford overpowered UCLA and their is not much scheme wise the Bruins can do in a short week to change that. UCLA of course will have a game plan however most anything they change, Stanford will be anticipating and will be ready and will adjust in kind.
I think this game will start off close and keep an eye on the 2nd half line. As the game wears on, it will revert to Stanford's power game and the Cardinal will take control and pull away and get the cover in the 2nd half.
Kent St/NIU- I am really hoping both teams acquit themselves well tonight and the winner is able to move into the top 16 and get a BCS bid. Both teams have a lot of skill players and that will show up on the scoreboard. There will be of course offensive TD's however I am expecting big plays on special teams as well that will result in direct TD's or set the teams up for easy score. This should be a back and forth game and I like a high scoring affair and for winning team to get the winning score on the final possession and to win by 4 points or so.
Friday, November 30, 2012
Thursday, November 29, 2012
Big East Championship Game
Here is my pick and breakdown of the Louisville/Rutgers game.
Top Picks
Louisville +3
Louisville/Rutgers under 21.5 (First Half)
Writeup
Despite all of the problems related to the Big East conference in retaining their schools, they do manage to produce some consistently good teams when all is said and done. Both L'ville and Rutgers had hot starts and have seemingly run out of gas as the season has gone on. Ultimately the difference in this game will be at QB. Both teams have solid qb's however L'ville's Bridgewater has shown that he can step up under duress and make big plays when needed. I think this game will be close throughout and L'ville will make the big plays on offense in the end to get the win/cover.
I do look for the game to start out very slow as both teams are worn down. Both teams are defensive oriented and will ease into this game offensively and neither team will be taking any big chances and risking turnovers until the game is into the 2nd half so the first half should go under easily.
Top Picks
Louisville +3
Louisville/Rutgers under 21.5 (First Half)
Writeup
Despite all of the problems related to the Big East conference in retaining their schools, they do manage to produce some consistently good teams when all is said and done. Both L'ville and Rutgers had hot starts and have seemingly run out of gas as the season has gone on. Ultimately the difference in this game will be at QB. Both teams have solid qb's however L'ville's Bridgewater has shown that he can step up under duress and make big plays when needed. I think this game will be close throughout and L'ville will make the big plays on offense in the end to get the win/cover.
I do look for the game to start out very slow as both teams are worn down. Both teams are defensive oriented and will ease into this game offensively and neither team will be taking any big chances and risking turnovers until the game is into the 2nd half so the first half should go under easily.
Sunday, November 25, 2012
NBA and NCAA Hoops 11/25
Here are couple of games to take if you need a distraction from the NFL tonight
NBA Lean
Philly/Suns under 194.5
NCAA Hoops
Top Pick
Davidson/Gonzaga over 143.5
San Diego ST -1.5 vs USC
Lean
Pacific +6 vs Cal
Writeups:
Philly/Suns- The suns are about to start a long east coast based road trip and are facing a Philly team coming off back to back losses. Philly has had their best success when holding teams under 100 points and will not be looking to get into a running game with the Suns. When the Suns have played half court games, they have struggled mightily and unless they are able to control the tempo in this one and get a fast pace, this game should go under the number.
Davidson/Gonzaga- Nice mid major matchup with both teams looking to get an early season notch on their tournament resumes by winning this game. Both teams like fast paced games and generally shoot the ball well which is a nice recipe to get the game over. It is a pretty high total but not too high and with some decent shooting will get over 143.5
San Diego St- The Aztecs have the edge in talent in this one and will be able fight through any fatigue issues to get the win in this one.
Pacific- The Tigers have a bit less talent than Cal but they are playing at a high level right now and will be able to hang around possibly pull off another upset win and cover the six.
NBA Lean
Philly/Suns under 194.5
NCAA Hoops
Top Pick
Davidson/Gonzaga over 143.5
San Diego ST -1.5 vs USC
Lean
Pacific +6 vs Cal
Writeups:
Philly/Suns- The suns are about to start a long east coast based road trip and are facing a Philly team coming off back to back losses. Philly has had their best success when holding teams under 100 points and will not be looking to get into a running game with the Suns. When the Suns have played half court games, they have struggled mightily and unless they are able to control the tempo in this one and get a fast pace, this game should go under the number.
Davidson/Gonzaga- Nice mid major matchup with both teams looking to get an early season notch on their tournament resumes by winning this game. Both teams like fast paced games and generally shoot the ball well which is a nice recipe to get the game over. It is a pretty high total but not too high and with some decent shooting will get over 143.5
San Diego St- The Aztecs have the edge in talent in this one and will be able fight through any fatigue issues to get the win in this one.
Pacific- The Tigers have a bit less talent than Cal but they are playing at a high level right now and will be able to hang around possibly pull off another upset win and cover the six.
Saturday, November 24, 2012
Sunday, November 18, 2012
NBA & NCAA Hoops 11/18
Good night last night with NBA with the Clippers and Heat coming through. One NBA pick tonight and my first (but not last) NCAA hoops picks of the season
NBA Top Pick
Chicago -1 vs Portland
NCAA Top Pick
Murray St +2 vs Colorado
Writeups
Chicago- I was all over the mad matchup for the Bulls last night against the Clippers last night however the Bulls will be much more in their comfort zone against an inexperienced Trailblazer team. The Trailblazers are pretty athletic however they do not have consistent go to scorers that the Bulls team defense will not be slow down. Add that to the fact that the Bulls had a very poor shooting night and their offense will bounce back tonight as well.
Bulls will control this one from start to finish with their defense and a much better offensive effort for the win and cover.
Murray St- Hard core hoop fans know that Murray St is one of those teams that comes in with a really good team from time to time. This year the Racers return a talented team and one of the best players in the country. They are playing a good Colorado team that won't be a push over however Murray has the advantage in this one as they have better team chemistry at this point and on a neutral court will have the crowd behind the underdog.
NBA Top Pick
Chicago -1 vs Portland
NCAA Top Pick
Murray St +2 vs Colorado
Writeups
Chicago- I was all over the mad matchup for the Bulls last night against the Clippers last night however the Bulls will be much more in their comfort zone against an inexperienced Trailblazer team. The Trailblazers are pretty athletic however they do not have consistent go to scorers that the Bulls team defense will not be slow down. Add that to the fact that the Bulls had a very poor shooting night and their offense will bounce back tonight as well.
Bulls will control this one from start to finish with their defense and a much better offensive effort for the win and cover.
Murray St- Hard core hoop fans know that Murray St is one of those teams that comes in with a really good team from time to time. This year the Racers return a talented team and one of the best players in the country. They are playing a good Colorado team that won't be a push over however Murray has the advantage in this one as they have better team chemistry at this point and on a neutral court will have the crowd behind the underdog.
Saturday, November 17, 2012
NBA Picks 11/17
Here are a couple of NBA picks to consider.
Top Pick
LA Clippers -6 vs Chicago
Leans
LA Clippers/Chicago over 190.5
Miami -6.5 vs Phoenix
Writeups:
LAC- the Clippers are playing very well to start the season and have a great matchup against the Bulls tonight. Even when D. Rose was healthy for the Bulls last year they had trouble handling high scoring teams. This year without D. Rose and without consistent scorers, that weakness is highlighted further. The Bulls will be forced to run in this one and won't keep up to cover the 6 however they will help push the total over.
Miami- Even with Miami being on a tough road trip and potentially coming off a let down win, they have too much talent and Phoenix does not have the horses to hang with the Heat for all 4 quarters. Take Heat and don't panic if this game is close into the 3rd quarter.
Top Pick
LA Clippers -6 vs Chicago
Leans
LA Clippers/Chicago over 190.5
Miami -6.5 vs Phoenix
Writeups:
LAC- the Clippers are playing very well to start the season and have a great matchup against the Bulls tonight. Even when D. Rose was healthy for the Bulls last year they had trouble handling high scoring teams. This year without D. Rose and without consistent scorers, that weakness is highlighted further. The Bulls will be forced to run in this one and won't keep up to cover the 6 however they will help push the total over.
Miami- Even with Miami being on a tough road trip and potentially coming off a let down win, they have too much talent and Phoenix does not have the horses to hang with the Heat for all 4 quarters. Take Heat and don't panic if this game is close into the 3rd quarter.
College Football Picks 11/17 Part 1
Time to bounce back from a rough landing last week in the night games.
5 Star Play
Cincinnati -7 vs Rutgers
Top Play
Houston/Marshall over 75
Florida St -31 vs Maryland
Northwestern +7 vs Mich St and under 45.5
USC/UCLA Over 64.5
Writeups
Cincinnati- For the recent history of the Big East, it seems like the front running team to win the conference always gets knocked off in a tough away game. Remember Pitt taking down W. Virginia among the prominent examples.
Cinci- has been pretty much flying under the radar however they have several nice wins under their belt. They are taking on a surprising Rutgers team that has maximized their talent. The Bearcats offense will be primed to score in this one and Rutgers has played their best ball already will run into a buzzsaw in this one.
Houston/Marshall- Going back to well with this one. Neither teams has much on defense and for any wins they have, have relied heavily on their offense. I don't expect much of a change in strategy in this one and for the game to fly over the total.
Florida St- It has been a trying year for Maryland and they have laid it on the line several times this year dealing with many injuries. This is a game though, even if healthy, there would be a huge talent deficit between the two teams. With the injuries, Maryland is really behind the 8 ball. Add that these teams don't like each other and I like Florida St to really put it to the terps. Consider taking FSU in the first half as well as this should be a beatdown from start to finish.
Northwestern- The Wildcats had another incredible collapse last week and hits the road against an MSU team that unbelievably has not played well at home at all this week. Both teams need a win and both teams will not be looking to give this game away with turnovers. Ultimately, Mich St does not have enough on offense to win this game going away. It will be a low scoring game and whoever comes out on top will do so by 4 points or less.
USC/UCLA- The battle of LA actually means something this year. Looking at this game, both teams have had some very impressive offensive performances and both teams will rely on their offenses to get them the victory. Conversely both team's defenses have been shredded at various times so any stops that the defenses get will be a luxury. The game may start out slow as both teams will come out fired up but it will be a real track meet in the 2nd half.
5 Star Play
Cincinnati -7 vs Rutgers
Top Play
Houston/Marshall over 75
Florida St -31 vs Maryland
Northwestern +7 vs Mich St and under 45.5
USC/UCLA Over 64.5
Writeups
Cincinnati- For the recent history of the Big East, it seems like the front running team to win the conference always gets knocked off in a tough away game. Remember Pitt taking down W. Virginia among the prominent examples.
Cinci- has been pretty much flying under the radar however they have several nice wins under their belt. They are taking on a surprising Rutgers team that has maximized their talent. The Bearcats offense will be primed to score in this one and Rutgers has played their best ball already will run into a buzzsaw in this one.
Houston/Marshall- Going back to well with this one. Neither teams has much on defense and for any wins they have, have relied heavily on their offense. I don't expect much of a change in strategy in this one and for the game to fly over the total.
Florida St- It has been a trying year for Maryland and they have laid it on the line several times this year dealing with many injuries. This is a game though, even if healthy, there would be a huge talent deficit between the two teams. With the injuries, Maryland is really behind the 8 ball. Add that these teams don't like each other and I like Florida St to really put it to the terps. Consider taking FSU in the first half as well as this should be a beatdown from start to finish.
Northwestern- The Wildcats had another incredible collapse last week and hits the road against an MSU team that unbelievably has not played well at home at all this week. Both teams need a win and both teams will not be looking to give this game away with turnovers. Ultimately, Mich St does not have enough on offense to win this game going away. It will be a low scoring game and whoever comes out on top will do so by 4 points or less.
USC/UCLA- The battle of LA actually means something this year. Looking at this game, both teams have had some very impressive offensive performances and both teams will rely on their offenses to get them the victory. Conversely both team's defenses have been shredded at various times so any stops that the defenses get will be a luxury. The game may start out slow as both teams will come out fired up but it will be a real track meet in the 2nd half.
Saturday, November 10, 2012
NBA Picks 11/10
Time to get the NBA picks started.
Leans:
Minnesota +8 vs Chicago and under 184.5
Golden State +2 vs Denver
Writeups
The Twolves have gotten off to a fast start and are playing with confidence. They are coming off a game last night so the spread is a little more generous than it needs to be. The bulls are in need of a win as they are a 5 game home stand before a long road trip so will be focused. When the bulls are at their best they play tough defense. I am looking for Minnesota to continue to play well and cover the spread in a low scoring game.
Golden St- Favorable matchup for Golden St. Both teams like to run and Golden St has the home benefit which will help them outlast Denver which is coming off a late game last night.
Leans:
Minnesota +8 vs Chicago and under 184.5
Golden State +2 vs Denver
Writeups
The Twolves have gotten off to a fast start and are playing with confidence. They are coming off a game last night so the spread is a little more generous than it needs to be. The bulls are in need of a win as they are a 5 game home stand before a long road trip so will be focused. When the bulls are at their best they play tough defense. I am looking for Minnesota to continue to play well and cover the spread in a low scoring game.
Golden St- Favorable matchup for Golden St. Both teams like to run and Golden St has the home benefit which will help them outlast Denver which is coming off a late game last night.
College Football 11/10 Picks Part 2
Moving to the rest of my picks for college football.
Top Picks
Notre Dame -20 vs BC
Utah -1 vs Washington
K St/TCU 57
Miss St +14.5 vs LSU
Lean
UNLV pk vs Colo St
Writeups
Notre Dame- Outside of the history of an occasional BC upset of ND and ND flat out playing horribly, there is no factual reason to take BC in this one. BC is on the final games of the Frank Spaziano era and a beatdown here will get them closer to that ending. BC did not have a lot of talent in the first place on the offensive end and they are banged up giving ND an even bigger edge and BC's defense will not be able to hold ND consistently and this one goes ND's way by much more than 20 points.
Utah- Interesting game here, I have done well this season playing on Washington in Seattle. The odds makers could have easily made UW the favorite here and there probably would not have been much notice. However, they made Utah the favorite acknowledging that Utah has the favorable matchup especially defensively. I am not looking for an offensive explosion and I like Utah to gut this one out and get the win.
KState/TCU- the pressure is mounting on the BCS teams in contention and I like TCU to take advantage of this and come out aggressively and score points. However TCU is not the defensive stalwart that they have been in years past and K State will get their act together and score on TCU as well. Not sure about the point spread however I am confident that this game will go well over the total.
Miss St- The bulldogs are in a good spot by matching up well with LSU and catching LSU in the inevitable letdown mode. Neither team is fancy and they will both line up and try to push each other around. The difference in this will be whether LSU can get over the hangover and play another great game. I don't see that happening as they played well over the heads last week and will come back to earth and struggle at home tonight.
UNLV- Another opportunity for the UNLV coach to get his future cemented. His team has played hard and they have had a decent year vs expectations. Meanwhile, CSU is firmly looking towards next year. UNLV has a slight edge in talent however they have a big edge in motivation and that will get them the win in this game.
Top Picks
Notre Dame -20 vs BC
Utah -1 vs Washington
K St/TCU 57
Miss St +14.5 vs LSU
Lean
UNLV pk vs Colo St
Writeups
Notre Dame- Outside of the history of an occasional BC upset of ND and ND flat out playing horribly, there is no factual reason to take BC in this one. BC is on the final games of the Frank Spaziano era and a beatdown here will get them closer to that ending. BC did not have a lot of talent in the first place on the offensive end and they are banged up giving ND an even bigger edge and BC's defense will not be able to hold ND consistently and this one goes ND's way by much more than 20 points.
Utah- Interesting game here, I have done well this season playing on Washington in Seattle. The odds makers could have easily made UW the favorite here and there probably would not have been much notice. However, they made Utah the favorite acknowledging that Utah has the favorable matchup especially defensively. I am not looking for an offensive explosion and I like Utah to gut this one out and get the win.
KState/TCU- the pressure is mounting on the BCS teams in contention and I like TCU to take advantage of this and come out aggressively and score points. However TCU is not the defensive stalwart that they have been in years past and K State will get their act together and score on TCU as well. Not sure about the point spread however I am confident that this game will go well over the total.
Miss St- The bulldogs are in a good spot by matching up well with LSU and catching LSU in the inevitable letdown mode. Neither team is fancy and they will both line up and try to push each other around. The difference in this will be whether LSU can get over the hangover and play another great game. I don't see that happening as they played well over the heads last week and will come back to earth and struggle at home tonight.
UNLV- Another opportunity for the UNLV coach to get his future cemented. His team has played hard and they have had a decent year vs expectations. Meanwhile, CSU is firmly looking towards next year. UNLV has a slight edge in talent however they have a big edge in motivation and that will get them the win in this game.
College Football Picks 11/10 Part 1
This week its time to take advantage of the teams that have momentum and the teams that are looking forward to the end of the season and coaches on the way out.
Also I will be breaking the NBA seal later today so don't miss out.
Top Picks
Michigan -8 and Michigan/NWU over 52
Missouri +3 vs Tennessee
Alabama -13.5 vs Texas A&M
Writeups
Michigan- The Wolverines are finally starting to getting it together and suprisingly looked their sharpest with a back up QB. This match up favors Michigan on the offensive side as NWU has had trouble with teams that can throw the ball and mix in the run. NWU will be able to score on Michigan as their defense is good but not great.
Look for this game to go back and forth early but for Michigan to seize control in the 2nd half and stretch out the lead and push the game over 52.
Missouri- OK, the hype over Missouri in the SEC is now settling down as they took a couple of brutal beatings. The reality here is that Missouri has the better overall team. Their defense will be able to get pressure on the Tennessee qb and their offense will be able to score on a mediocre Tennessee defense. Don't get sucked into thinking that Mizzoo can't hang with SEC teams. They are not elite team but neither is Tennessee. Look for Mizzoo to get the straight up win and for the heat to continue to mount on the Vols coach.
Alabama- This is a bit of head scratcher as so many people are picking A&M in the upset here. Bama struggled against LSU but LSU played their best game last week and would have crushed just about every other team except LSU. A&M has not proven that they can step in weight and beat a superior team. We have seen the Aggies struggle against other strong defensive teams and I don't see them being ready to figure out the Bama defense today. Add that to A&M's suspect defense and the Tide gets back on track and puts the doubters back in their place.
Also I will be breaking the NBA seal later today so don't miss out.
Top Picks
Michigan -8 and Michigan/NWU over 52
Missouri +3 vs Tennessee
Alabama -13.5 vs Texas A&M
Writeups
Michigan- The Wolverines are finally starting to getting it together and suprisingly looked their sharpest with a back up QB. This match up favors Michigan on the offensive side as NWU has had trouble with teams that can throw the ball and mix in the run. NWU will be able to score on Michigan as their defense is good but not great.
Look for this game to go back and forth early but for Michigan to seize control in the 2nd half and stretch out the lead and push the game over 52.
Missouri- OK, the hype over Missouri in the SEC is now settling down as they took a couple of brutal beatings. The reality here is that Missouri has the better overall team. Their defense will be able to get pressure on the Tennessee qb and their offense will be able to score on a mediocre Tennessee defense. Don't get sucked into thinking that Mizzoo can't hang with SEC teams. They are not elite team but neither is Tennessee. Look for Mizzoo to get the straight up win and for the heat to continue to mount on the Vols coach.
Alabama- This is a bit of head scratcher as so many people are picking A&M in the upset here. Bama struggled against LSU but LSU played their best game last week and would have crushed just about every other team except LSU. A&M has not proven that they can step in weight and beat a superior team. We have seen the Aggies struggle against other strong defensive teams and I don't see them being ready to figure out the Bama defense today. Add that to A&M's suspect defense and the Tide gets back on track and puts the doubters back in their place.
Saturday, November 3, 2012
College Football Picks 11/3 Part 3
Now for the BCS games.
No secret here, every game for the top four BCS teams gets more and more pressure packed.
I think Oregon, Bama and K State will be up to the task tonight so I am taking all of them as top picks and will go ahead and parlay them to boot.
Top Picks
Bama -7.5
Oregon -8.5
K St -7.5
Writeups
Bama- the key here is Bama's defensive scheme, you need a really good offense and particularly strong QB play to beat a Saban defense. LSU has neither, Bama rolls again.
Oregon- This could be interesting but USC does not have the horses in the defensive backfield and that will be their downfall. This will be a track meet for a while but Oregon will keep pace and USC will fall back.
K State- Everyone knows that K State thrives on other team's mistakes, OK St has talent but are young and will open the door for K State. They will gladly take advantage and roll in this one.
No secret here, every game for the top four BCS teams gets more and more pressure packed.
I think Oregon, Bama and K State will be up to the task tonight so I am taking all of them as top picks and will go ahead and parlay them to boot.
Top Picks
Bama -7.5
Oregon -8.5
K St -7.5
Writeups
Bama- the key here is Bama's defensive scheme, you need a really good offense and particularly strong QB play to beat a Saban defense. LSU has neither, Bama rolls again.
Oregon- This could be interesting but USC does not have the horses in the defensive backfield and that will be their downfall. This will be a track meet for a while but Oregon will keep pace and USC will fall back.
K State- Everyone knows that K State thrives on other team's mistakes, OK St has talent but are young and will open the door for K State. They will gladly take advantage and roll in this one.
College Football Picks 11/3 Part 2
Here are my plays for the afternoon.
5 Star
Michigan St -1 vs Nebraska
Top Picks
Northern Ill over 45 (team total)
Lean
Notre Dame/Pitt over 47
Writeups:
Michigan St- Favorable matchup for Michigan St. Their defense will be able slow down and stop the Huskers while the Mich St offense which is mediocre will be able to move the ball against a less than mediocre Husker defense. The Spartans are gaining momentum and will handle Nebraska in this one.
NIU- The Huskies score in bunches at home so forgot about everything else and take the sure bet. The Huskies will score more than 45 in this game against a hapless UMass team
ND/Pitt- After a tremendous effort last week look for a small ND letdown on defense against an improving Pitt team. ND's offense though will be able to break out against Pitt and this game will get over 47.
5 Star
Michigan St -1 vs Nebraska
Top Picks
Northern Ill over 45 (team total)
Lean
Notre Dame/Pitt over 47
Writeups:
Michigan St- Favorable matchup for Michigan St. Their defense will be able slow down and stop the Huskers while the Mich St offense which is mediocre will be able to move the ball against a less than mediocre Husker defense. The Spartans are gaining momentum and will handle Nebraska in this one.
NIU- The Huskies score in bunches at home so forgot about everything else and take the sure bet. The Huskies will score more than 45 in this game against a hapless UMass team
ND/Pitt- After a tremendous effort last week look for a small ND letdown on defense against an improving Pitt team. ND's offense though will be able to break out against Pitt and this game will get over 47.
College Football Picks 11/3 Part 1
Here is my first round of picks. A couple of small plays to get started.
Top Pick
Houston/E. Carolina over 69.5
Leans:
Minnesota +10.5 vs Michigan
Iowa St + 12 vs Oklahoma
Writeups (Brief due to time constraints)
Minnesota- More of a go against Michigan's offense which has not gotten on track. I like the Gophers to hang around in this one.
Houston/E. Carolina- neither teams plays much defense and Houston is especially bad on defense on the road.
Iowa St- Good spot for the Cyclones to potentially pull an upset against a team they usually struggle against.
Top Pick
Houston/E. Carolina over 69.5
Leans:
Minnesota +10.5 vs Michigan
Iowa St + 12 vs Oklahoma
Writeups (Brief due to time constraints)
Minnesota- More of a go against Michigan's offense which has not gotten on track. I like the Gophers to hang around in this one.
Houston/E. Carolina- neither teams plays much defense and Houston is especially bad on defense on the road.
Iowa St- Good spot for the Cyclones to potentially pull an upset against a team they usually struggle against.
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