Been a pretty tough tourney so far for me.
I have taken a look at the games today and have 3 plays.
Leans
VCU team total under 68 vs Kansas- VCU has been tearing up from 3 point land this tourney. Kansas knows this and also is adept at stopping the 3 point shot. I think this bodes poorly for VCU. I look for a low shooting percentage game from them today and to fall short of 68 points. One concern is that they are way behind and pick up points in garbage time.
Kansas over 37.5 1st half- Going with the above logic I think Kansas will defend well and have a lot chances for run outs and easy baskets. I look for the Morris twins to establish themselves in the first half as well and get quite a few "and one" opportunities.
Kentucky & NC over 68.5 first half- NC loves to push the ball and I don't see them even thinking about slowing it down. Kentucky seems to take on their opponent at whatever style they bring and beat them at their own game. So I don't see the Cats slowing down either. Should be fun to watch.
Sunday, March 27, 2011
Tuesday, March 22, 2011
NCAA and NBA Picks 3/22
Two games tonight for me.
NCAA Top Pick
Colorado/Kent St over 154.5
NBA Top Pick
Bulls/Hawks under 182
NCAA Top Pick
Colorado/Kent St over 154.5
NBA Top Pick
Bulls/Hawks under 182
Sunday, March 20, 2011
NCAA Tourney Picks 3/20
Yesteday was a big day for the top seeds (except Pittsburh) and for those betting favorites where just about every favorite covered despite being challenged.
I think today will be a good day for underdogs:
5 Star
I do like one favorite today Notre Dame -5 vs Florida St. Everyone in the world is falling over themselves to pat the Seminole's on the back for their defense. It is pretty good but A&M missed a lot of open shots in the 2nd half. If ND has those same looks (which they will) then they will knock them down. Meanwhile, FSU is just not a good offensive team and they will slowly let this one get away from them.
Marquette +5 vs Syracuse- Curious spread in my opinion, I think this one is based on perception. Syracuse has a lot of national exposure while Marquette does not have many household names and people gravitate to the teams they know. Marquette beat them once and don't be surprised if they get the win here.
Top Picks
VA Commonwealth +9.5 vs Purdue- I think that Purdue is the better team but I see a dog fight here as Purdue will not be able shut down Va Commonwealth and the 9.5 points are too many in this matchup.
Arizona +5.5 vs Texas- The longhorns at one point were getting it done on defense but that has slipped as the seasaon has worn on. Against good offensive teams they have struggled. Zona can fill it up and will give the Longhorns a run for the money and cover the 5.5.
Illinois +8.5 vs Kansas- Finally Illinois played to their potential on Friday. Look for that momentum to continue and for the Illini to come out and play well. We'll see if Kansas can handle the pressure or if it will catch up to them and they fizzle. Either way, 8.5 points will be more than enough for the Illini.
I think today will be a good day for underdogs:
5 Star
I do like one favorite today Notre Dame -5 vs Florida St. Everyone in the world is falling over themselves to pat the Seminole's on the back for their defense. It is pretty good but A&M missed a lot of open shots in the 2nd half. If ND has those same looks (which they will) then they will knock them down. Meanwhile, FSU is just not a good offensive team and they will slowly let this one get away from them.
Marquette +5 vs Syracuse- Curious spread in my opinion, I think this one is based on perception. Syracuse has a lot of national exposure while Marquette does not have many household names and people gravitate to the teams they know. Marquette beat them once and don't be surprised if they get the win here.
Top Picks
VA Commonwealth +9.5 vs Purdue- I think that Purdue is the better team but I see a dog fight here as Purdue will not be able shut down Va Commonwealth and the 9.5 points are too many in this matchup.
Arizona +5.5 vs Texas- The longhorns at one point were getting it done on defense but that has slipped as the seasaon has worn on. Against good offensive teams they have struggled. Zona can fill it up and will give the Longhorns a run for the money and cover the 5.5.
Illinois +8.5 vs Kansas- Finally Illinois played to their potential on Friday. Look for that momentum to continue and for the Illini to come out and play well. We'll see if Kansas can handle the pressure or if it will catch up to them and they fizzle. Either way, 8.5 points will be more than enough for the Illini.
Friday, March 18, 2011
NCAA Tourney 3/18 Picks
Mixed bag yesterday, looking to do better today.
3 Early games-
Top Picks
Oakland/Texas over 157
Texas AM -1 vs Fla St
Lean
Mich/tenn under 127.5
3 Early games-
Top Picks
Oakland/Texas over 157
Texas AM -1 vs Fla St
Lean
Mich/tenn under 127.5
Wednesday, March 16, 2011
NCAA Tourney 3/17 Picks
Here are my selections for Thursday
5 Star
Vandy -3 vs Richmond - I am confident that Vandy is the better team year and this will not be very close.
San Diego St -15.5 vs Northern Colorado- This is one of the bigger mismatches in the first round and the price of 15.5 is very reasonable.
BYU/Wofford over 147- Both teams like to play at a fast pace and should push this one over pretty easily.
Utah St/Kansas St under 128.5- You can count on Utah St walking the ball up the court and for the aggies to work the clock and try to wear down KSU. KSU can play the slow down game as well so I am looking for a pretty low scoring affair.
Top Picks
Clemson +2 vs WVU- The quick turnaround should not be a problem for the tigers.
Florida -13 vs Santa Barbara- Another sizable mismatch
Mich St/UCLA under 125- should be a deliberate effort by both teams who emphasize defense.
Gonzaga +1.5 vs St Johns- I have liked St John's all year but I think this is not a good matchup for Lavin's crew.
Leans:
Wisconsin -5
Temple -2.5
Old Dominion -2
5 Star
Vandy -3 vs Richmond - I am confident that Vandy is the better team year and this will not be very close.
San Diego St -15.5 vs Northern Colorado- This is one of the bigger mismatches in the first round and the price of 15.5 is very reasonable.
BYU/Wofford over 147- Both teams like to play at a fast pace and should push this one over pretty easily.
Utah St/Kansas St under 128.5- You can count on Utah St walking the ball up the court and for the aggies to work the clock and try to wear down KSU. KSU can play the slow down game as well so I am looking for a pretty low scoring affair.
Top Picks
Clemson +2 vs WVU- The quick turnaround should not be a problem for the tigers.
Florida -13 vs Santa Barbara- Another sizable mismatch
Mich St/UCLA under 125- should be a deliberate effort by both teams who emphasize defense.
Gonzaga +1.5 vs St Johns- I have liked St John's all year but I think this is not a good matchup for Lavin's crew.
Leans:
Wisconsin -5
Temple -2.5
Old Dominion -2
Sunday, March 13, 2011
NCAA Golden Goose (commentary no picks)
It never ceases to amaze how the NCAA can continue to screw things up but due to their amazing product, get away scott free with no consequences.
I am in particular talking about the NCAA tournament selection and how they go about selecting teams through some kind of hair brained committee. Yes, the selection committee has a hard job but really this year's selections made little or no sense. I will refrain from going into the particulars but some teams just flat out have no business qualifying yet they got in.
The thing that really makes it bad though is when all is said and done, it will be an abaolutely fantastic tournament as always and the NCAA will make money hand over fist.
Before I end this rant, I do have to point out the blatant hypocrisy though of the NCAA when it comes to not having a football playoff. One chief argument is that a "playoff would cheapen the regular season's meaning." However when it comes to the NCAA tourney, that gets thrown out the window.
Let's say you are a mid market team and play your schedule and win your conference and clearly have proven that you are the best team in your league. What happens then, you still need to go and win your conference tournament. So you win 2 games, get to the championship game against a team that was .500 in the regular season and you don't play your best game and lose.
Poof! what happens, you are out of the tourney, that .500 team takes your spot and your whole regular season is for not. You don't hear much complaining because you are a nobody mid major and who really cares that much. Certainly not the NCAA because they just made a whole bunch of money off your post season tournament and got paid by ESPN to televise it.
Anyways, just getting that off my chest. The one benefit is that we know who the weak teams are and will be able to pick against them and make some money.
I am in particular talking about the NCAA tournament selection and how they go about selecting teams through some kind of hair brained committee. Yes, the selection committee has a hard job but really this year's selections made little or no sense. I will refrain from going into the particulars but some teams just flat out have no business qualifying yet they got in.
The thing that really makes it bad though is when all is said and done, it will be an abaolutely fantastic tournament as always and the NCAA will make money hand over fist.
Before I end this rant, I do have to point out the blatant hypocrisy though of the NCAA when it comes to not having a football playoff. One chief argument is that a "playoff would cheapen the regular season's meaning." However when it comes to the NCAA tourney, that gets thrown out the window.
Let's say you are a mid market team and play your schedule and win your conference and clearly have proven that you are the best team in your league. What happens then, you still need to go and win your conference tournament. So you win 2 games, get to the championship game against a team that was .500 in the regular season and you don't play your best game and lose.
Poof! what happens, you are out of the tourney, that .500 team takes your spot and your whole regular season is for not. You don't hear much complaining because you are a nobody mid major and who really cares that much. Certainly not the NCAA because they just made a whole bunch of money off your post season tournament and got paid by ESPN to televise it.
Anyways, just getting that off my chest. The one benefit is that we know who the weak teams are and will be able to pick against them and make some money.
Saturday, March 12, 2011
Hoops March 12
Two college games today that I like.
Top Picks
Washington/Arizona over 155- Fast paced game last time out for these teams. I expect more of the same and for this to end in the 160's.
San Diego St -3.5 vs BYU- This is a pride game for the Aztecs, win or lose it won't affect their seeding. However, winning this game will help the Aztecs validate that they can beat a top tier team. I expect a strong effort by SD St and to get momentum going for the tourney.
Top Picks
Washington/Arizona over 155- Fast paced game last time out for these teams. I expect more of the same and for this to end in the 160's.
San Diego St -3.5 vs BYU- This is a pride game for the Aztecs, win or lose it won't affect their seeding. However, winning this game will help the Aztecs validate that they can beat a top tier team. I expect a strong effort by SD St and to get momentum going for the tourney.
Tuesday, March 8, 2011
Hoops March 8th
Lite schedule for me tonight
Leans
NCAA
Providence +6.5 and over 155.5 vs Marquette
Dayton -2 vs Umass - Good spots for both Providence and Dayton to make up for disappointing conference play.
NBA Lean
Cavs/Warriors over 218.5 - Run and gun!
Leans
NCAA
Providence +6.5 and over 155.5 vs Marquette
Dayton -2 vs Umass - Good spots for both Providence and Dayton to make up for disappointing conference play.
NBA Lean
Cavs/Warriors over 218.5 - Run and gun!
Monday, March 7, 2011
Hoops March 7th
Good time to be a college basketball fan, lot of action this week.
5 Star Play
Oakloand/South Dakota St over 173- Can't say I have intimate knowledge of these teams but I have been watching them here and there and they both love the fast pace.
Top Play
Old Dominion/VCU under 126 and Iona/St Peters under 130- The combo of fatigue and nerves will bring these games to a screaching halt in the 2nd game and both will fall under.
NBA
Lean
Clippers -1 vs Bobcats- This line seems to be off but that just means Vegas knows something in making the Clip a road favorite. Give the point, it will probably be a layup.
5 Star Play
Oakloand/South Dakota St over 173- Can't say I have intimate knowledge of these teams but I have been watching them here and there and they both love the fast pace.
Top Play
Old Dominion/VCU under 126 and Iona/St Peters under 130- The combo of fatigue and nerves will bring these games to a screaching halt in the 2nd game and both will fall under.
NBA
Lean
Clippers -1 vs Bobcats- This line seems to be off but that just means Vegas knows something in making the Clip a road favorite. Give the point, it will probably be a layup.
Saturday, March 5, 2011
Hoops March 5
Here is my lineup for tonight.
College
Top Picks
Cleveland St +4 vs Butler
Texas -3.5 vs Baylor
Leans
UC Davis/CS Fullerton over 151
NBA
Top Pick
Nuggets/Clippers over 209
College
Top Picks
Cleveland St +4 vs Butler
Texas -3.5 vs Baylor
Leans
UC Davis/CS Fullerton over 151
NBA
Top Pick
Nuggets/Clippers over 209
Wednesday, March 2, 2011
College Hoops March 2
Another winner last night, been killing the 5 star plays!
Might as well keep the good times rolling...
5 Star Play
Northwestern -4 vs Minnesota- Again NU does not have the goods to make it to the big dance due to being unable to handle the rugged Big 10. However they have had their moments and one thing to admire about NU is that they usually have a player come along who contributes as freshman and ends up having a decent college career becoming fan favorites along the way.
The latest to fit this mold is Michael "juice" Thompson. He has been a solid college player and made a lot of things happen for NU. Tonight is likely his last home game and I look for an inspired effort against a Minnesota team that is not playing anywhere near the high level they were in December and early January.
Might as well keep the good times rolling...
5 Star Play
Northwestern -4 vs Minnesota- Again NU does not have the goods to make it to the big dance due to being unable to handle the rugged Big 10. However they have had their moments and one thing to admire about NU is that they usually have a player come along who contributes as freshman and ends up having a decent college career becoming fan favorites along the way.
The latest to fit this mold is Michael "juice" Thompson. He has been a solid college player and made a lot of things happen for NU. Tonight is likely his last home game and I look for an inspired effort against a Minnesota team that is not playing anywhere near the high level they were in December and early January.
Tuesday, March 1, 2011
College Hoops March 1
Another game to pound tonight!
5 Star Play
San Diego St -11.5 vs Wyoming- The last game was no contest between these 2 teams and the beatdown came right after SDST lost to BYU as does this game. A nice angle is to look for teams who got throttled earlier in the season to play better the 2nd time around. I don't see that even remotely happening as SDST will be ornery again and Wyoming is looking for a merciful end to this season. Lay the wood in this one.
5 Star Play
San Diego St -11.5 vs Wyoming- The last game was no contest between these 2 teams and the beatdown came right after SDST lost to BYU as does this game. A nice angle is to look for teams who got throttled earlier in the season to play better the 2nd time around. I don't see that even remotely happening as SDST will be ornery again and Wyoming is looking for a merciful end to this season. Lay the wood in this one.
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