The early games are looking decent at half...for the rest of the day, here is what I like.
5 Star Picks
Navy +23 at Notre Dame
Ohio St +7.5 vs Wisconsin
Top Picks
Kansas St +13.5 vs Oklahoma
Leans:
Ga Tech/Clemson over 62
Stanford -7.5 at USC
Writeups:
The first 3 picks are all for the same general reason. ND, Wisconsin and Oklahoma are all coming off brutal losses and I don't see any of the three playing like they were before last week's losses. I also think each dog is worth taking a shot on the money line as well to see if we can make it a real nice pay day.
Ga Tech/Clemson- Both teams rely on their offense and neither defense has been consistent all year. I envision a pretty wild game here with scoring coming fast and furious.
Stanford- I will stay on this team until someone can find their weakness and exploit it.
Saturday, October 29, 2011
College Football Picks 10/29- Part 1
I have a pretty tight card today and probably will not be adding to many games to my look ahead post from earlier this week.
However as the day gets going, I will be looking for some worthy sides to add to the mix.
To get started with the early games, here are my early sides.
Top Pick:
Syracuse/Louisville under 44
Lean:
Nebraska -4 vs Michigan St
Writeups:
Syracuse/Louisville- Remember when Louisville was a high flying offensive team with the AFROS (America's Favorite Receivers on Saturdays). Talk about a 180, now under Charlie Strong they are a defensive oriented team with an offense that at best manages the game and tries not to put their team in a bad situation. Syracuse is pretty well balanced however they will run the ball quite a bit and won't be taking too many chances in coming off a big win and trying to maintain their momentum.
I am looking for a pretty tight game with a lot of punts and run attempts so the under is the way to go.
Nebraska- Sticking with the letdown factor here as Mich St leaves their electric home atmosphere and faces a fired up Nebraska team and crowd. I think Nebraska will make enough big plays on offense and the blackshirt defense will slow down the Mich St offense to cover the 4 here.
However as the day gets going, I will be looking for some worthy sides to add to the mix.
To get started with the early games, here are my early sides.
Top Pick:
Syracuse/Louisville under 44
Lean:
Nebraska -4 vs Michigan St
Writeups:
Syracuse/Louisville- Remember when Louisville was a high flying offensive team with the AFROS (America's Favorite Receivers on Saturdays). Talk about a 180, now under Charlie Strong they are a defensive oriented team with an offense that at best manages the game and tries not to put their team in a bad situation. Syracuse is pretty well balanced however they will run the ball quite a bit and won't be taking too many chances in coming off a big win and trying to maintain their momentum.
I am looking for a pretty tight game with a lot of punts and run attempts so the under is the way to go.
Nebraska- Sticking with the letdown factor here as Mich St leaves their electric home atmosphere and faces a fired up Nebraska team and crowd. I think Nebraska will make enough big plays on offense and the blackshirt defense will slow down the Mich St offense to cover the 4 here.
Monday, October 24, 2011
Recap & Look Ahead to 10/29
OK- another ho hum Saturday for me. Some good picks and some clunkers but finally we had some action with ranked teams.
One of my tried and true betting edges is to bet against a team suffering a major letdown after a brutal loss.
It worked on Saturday when Illinois coming off a brutal loss to Ohio St then laid another egg against Purdue, same thing for Ga Tech who got crushed after losing the week before.
To qualify, the loss has to come in the 2nd half of the season and the loss has to cost the losing team something pretty significant. With the chaos that happened on Saturday, my lineup is already half set.
Let's start with Wisconsin and Oklahoma. They not only lost a game but also lost a shot at the BCS championship and likely a BCS bowl game opportunity. This week Wisconsin travels to Columbus to face Ohio St coming off a bye week and what will be a fired up and hostile crowd. I love the Buckeyes to get the straight up win but they are getting 7 points which is a lock.
Oklahoma meanwhile has to travel to Kansas St which finds itself in the BCS mix. K St is catching 13.5 points at the moment. I can see Oklahoma gutting this one out and getting a win but I don't see them shaking off the cobwebs completely and covering that big of a number.
The next team to fade is the fighting Irish. They were on the BCS comeback trail, had a rare night game, new really golden helmets but were handled from start to finish by USC and had some embarrassing miscues in the process. That loss definitely took the wind out of the sails and I don't expect them to blow out Navy this week. We all know that Navy is always intense but another win over ND but make their season again. I think the Midshipmen have a chance at the win and I definitely believe they will cover the 20 points.
On the reverse bad loss theory, I also like Nebraska to catch Michigan St in over celebrating mode and to cover the 4 points at home.
By Saturday, the coaches and talking heads will have rationalized the bad losses however I have seen over and over again the bad loss hangover be too much for college players to overcome.
One of my tried and true betting edges is to bet against a team suffering a major letdown after a brutal loss.
It worked on Saturday when Illinois coming off a brutal loss to Ohio St then laid another egg against Purdue, same thing for Ga Tech who got crushed after losing the week before.
To qualify, the loss has to come in the 2nd half of the season and the loss has to cost the losing team something pretty significant. With the chaos that happened on Saturday, my lineup is already half set.
Let's start with Wisconsin and Oklahoma. They not only lost a game but also lost a shot at the BCS championship and likely a BCS bowl game opportunity. This week Wisconsin travels to Columbus to face Ohio St coming off a bye week and what will be a fired up and hostile crowd. I love the Buckeyes to get the straight up win but they are getting 7 points which is a lock.
Oklahoma meanwhile has to travel to Kansas St which finds itself in the BCS mix. K St is catching 13.5 points at the moment. I can see Oklahoma gutting this one out and getting a win but I don't see them shaking off the cobwebs completely and covering that big of a number.
The next team to fade is the fighting Irish. They were on the BCS comeback trail, had a rare night game, new really golden helmets but were handled from start to finish by USC and had some embarrassing miscues in the process. That loss definitely took the wind out of the sails and I don't expect them to blow out Navy this week. We all know that Navy is always intense but another win over ND but make their season again. I think the Midshipmen have a chance at the win and I definitely believe they will cover the 20 points.
On the reverse bad loss theory, I also like Nebraska to catch Michigan St in over celebrating mode and to cover the 4 points at home.
By Saturday, the coaches and talking heads will have rationalized the bad losses however I have seen over and over again the bad loss hangover be too much for college players to overcome.
Saturday, October 22, 2011
College Football Picks 10/22 Part 3
Here are the nightcap picks...looking to finish strong.
Top Picks
ND/USC over 57
Alabama -30 vs Tennessee
Wisconin -7.5 vs Mich St
Leans:
Northwestern +4.5 vs. Penn St
Utah +1 vs Cal
Stanford -18.5 vs Washington
Writeups
ND/USC- Both teams are pretty offensive focused and although ND has had some nice defensive performances this year, they are stepping up in class vs a strong USC defense. USC has not stepped up all year on defense and I don't expect that to change tonight. Should be a relatively close game with ND winning by not making the big mistake.
Alabama- With LSU winning handily look for Bama to do the same. Tennessee is wilting under the tough SEC schedule and is in no position to stop Bama's run game and will not be moving the ball much tonight. Saban's rants were pretty amusing this week and I expect that his team will come out focused and this will be a laugher.
Wisconsin- A buddy of mine is adamant that Russell Wilson should win the Heisman and tonight will be his chance to insert himself ni the top 3. If Wilson was not the QB then I would be looking at MSU to get the win but Wilson will be a difference maker and the other factor is Wisconsin's defense which is very solid and will assert themselves vs MSU.
Northwestern- I like the Cats to get off the snide tonight against an overrated Penn St. team. In the past the Nittany Lions have handled the Cats with toughness but this version of Penn St is more finess and NU will be able to hang and get the win.
Utah- This has been a tough luck season for Utah but they will step up against a bad call team here and win.
Stanford- Washington has played well but their lack of a pass game will be a problem here and Stanford will make them one dimensional. Luck will quietly continue to keep his amazing season going in another ho hum route for the Cardinal.
Top Picks
ND/USC over 57
Alabama -30 vs Tennessee
Wisconin -7.5 vs Mich St
Leans:
Northwestern +4.5 vs. Penn St
Utah +1 vs Cal
Stanford -18.5 vs Washington
Writeups
ND/USC- Both teams are pretty offensive focused and although ND has had some nice defensive performances this year, they are stepping up in class vs a strong USC defense. USC has not stepped up all year on defense and I don't expect that to change tonight. Should be a relatively close game with ND winning by not making the big mistake.
Alabama- With LSU winning handily look for Bama to do the same. Tennessee is wilting under the tough SEC schedule and is in no position to stop Bama's run game and will not be moving the ball much tonight. Saban's rants were pretty amusing this week and I expect that his team will come out focused and this will be a laugher.
Wisconsin- A buddy of mine is adamant that Russell Wilson should win the Heisman and tonight will be his chance to insert himself ni the top 3. If Wilson was not the QB then I would be looking at MSU to get the win but Wilson will be a difference maker and the other factor is Wisconsin's defense which is very solid and will assert themselves vs MSU.
Northwestern- I like the Cats to get off the snide tonight against an overrated Penn St. team. In the past the Nittany Lions have handled the Cats with toughness but this version of Penn St is more finess and NU will be able to hang and get the win.
Utah- This has been a tough luck season for Utah but they will step up against a bad call team here and win.
Stanford- Washington has played well but their lack of a pass game will be a problem here and Stanford will make them one dimensional. Luck will quietly continue to keep his amazing season going in another ho hum route for the Cardinal.
College Football Picks 10/22 Part 2
Big afternoon on tap!
5 Star Plays
Miami -2.5 vs Ga. Tech
Boise St Team Total over 45
Top Play
Boise St -28 vs Air Force
Lean
Florida St -18 vs Maryland
Writeups:
Miami- This is the time in year when the "upsets" start to occur and top 25 teams start to get exposed. Picking Miami is considered calling for an upset but in reality they are the favorite by the odds makers and I think we can all agree that Vegas knows a lot more about these teams than the pollsters.
On to the teams themselves, Miami had a tough start but they do have quite a bit of talent and their team is starting to round into shape. Ga Tech got off to a great start and have been running the option well however teams are starting to catch up to them and their offense is slowing down. Look for Miami's athleticism to be able match up well against the option and for the Miami offense to run/pass with efficiency and control the game and get a much needed win against a top 25 team.
Boise St- Air Force has struggled mightily against the pass this year and they are playing one of the best passing teams in the nation. Add that Boise needs to continue winning decisively in order to maintain their position in the BCS standings. Finally, Boise has a real strong defensive front line so they will force AF off the field and give their offense plenty of opportunities which the offense will convert.
Florida St- Like the purdue pick earlier today, this is a game I identified in the preseason. Florida St is coming off 3 straight road games and will return home to a raucous crowd and will be able to handle the struggling Terrapins.
5 Star Plays
Miami -2.5 vs Ga. Tech
Boise St Team Total over 45
Top Play
Boise St -28 vs Air Force
Lean
Florida St -18 vs Maryland
Writeups:
Miami- This is the time in year when the "upsets" start to occur and top 25 teams start to get exposed. Picking Miami is considered calling for an upset but in reality they are the favorite by the odds makers and I think we can all agree that Vegas knows a lot more about these teams than the pollsters.
On to the teams themselves, Miami had a tough start but they do have quite a bit of talent and their team is starting to round into shape. Ga Tech got off to a great start and have been running the option well however teams are starting to catch up to them and their offense is slowing down. Look for Miami's athleticism to be able match up well against the option and for the Miami offense to run/pass with efficiency and control the game and get a much needed win against a top 25 team.
Boise St- Air Force has struggled mightily against the pass this year and they are playing one of the best passing teams in the nation. Add that Boise needs to continue winning decisively in order to maintain their position in the BCS standings. Finally, Boise has a real strong defensive front line so they will force AF off the field and give their offense plenty of opportunities which the offense will convert.
Florida St- Like the purdue pick earlier today, this is a game I identified in the preseason. Florida St is coming off 3 straight road games and will return home to a raucous crowd and will be able to handle the struggling Terrapins.
College Football Picks 10/22 Part 1
Had a little bit of success last weekend going 4-2 overall with 2-0 on my top picks. I am still baffled by the unbelievable streak of the favorites continuing to cover with ease. I am leery of that trend continuing tbut I will be jumping on a few of those today.
To get things going, here are couple of early sides with a full slate coming for the afternoon and evening games.
Leans:
Purdue +3 vs Illinois
Cincinnati +3 vs S. Florida
Writeups:
Purdue- this is a game I identified in my preseason research see working documents. I thought that Illinois had a good chance of going 6-0 heading into the Ohio St game and would be due for a letdown after losing that game. Well here it is, so let's see if Purdue can close the loop on that prediction. However, I also expected to get better play out of their QB position and with the injuries they have sustained, that has not happened so this is just a lean.
Cincinnati- This is a side based on the spread more than anything else. Cinci has played well at home but not on the road. S. Florida started out strong and seemingly should be a bigger favorite than they are. However Vegas made the line just a field goal and so I am thinking that Cinci will be in this game and will have a good chance to win it.
To get things going, here are couple of early sides with a full slate coming for the afternoon and evening games.
Leans:
Purdue +3 vs Illinois
Cincinnati +3 vs S. Florida
Writeups:
Purdue- this is a game I identified in my preseason research see working documents. I thought that Illinois had a good chance of going 6-0 heading into the Ohio St game and would be due for a letdown after losing that game. Well here it is, so let's see if Purdue can close the loop on that prediction. However, I also expected to get better play out of their QB position and with the injuries they have sustained, that has not happened so this is just a lean.
Cincinnati- This is a side based on the spread more than anything else. Cinci has played well at home but not on the road. S. Florida started out strong and seemingly should be a bigger favorite than they are. However Vegas made the line just a field goal and so I am thinking that Cinci will be in this game and will have a good chance to win it.
Friday, October 14, 2011
College Football Sides 10/15
I am spending a rare Saturday off the grid this week so I have a pretty light lineup. Probably a good thing as my picks need a bit of breather.
Anyhow...here goes.
Top Picks
Wisconsin -23 (first half) vs Indiana
East Carolina -14 vs Memphis
Leans
Tennessee/LSU under 46
Ohio St/Illini under 44.5
Florida/Auburn over 50
Texas Tech -3.5 vs K State
Writeups:
Wisconsin- Of course we remember the beating that Wiscy put on the Hoosiers last year and it will be hard for the badgers not to repeat with another massacre. However such a big deal was made out of that game there will be some pressure for HC Bielema to call off the dogs earlier than last year.
On the other hand, the BCS standings come out next week and Wisconsin will have ground to make up so I do think they will put the hammer down early and have more than a 23 point lead going into halftime.
East Carolina- They had a pretty miserable performance last week against Houston and will be able to get "some hair of the dog" this week when they take on a truly bad football team in Memphis. I look for the ECU offense to get back on track and even a poor defensive time like the Pirates can slow down the beleaguered Memphis squad.
Tennessee/LSU- It will be pretty amazing if Tenn can put up 13 or more points with a back up QB. LSU could run up the score but I think the Tenn defense will hold their own for a while before wilting. LSU does not need style points as they will be either the #1 or 2 team in the BCS standings and their tilt with Bama is on the horizon so the best they can do here is get the win with no major injuries.
Ohio St/Illinois- I am very tempted go with the Buckeyes in this one but I think the under is the way to play it. I am very confident that Illinois will come out tight as they are in uncharted waters with their 6-0 start. Also, Ron Zook has played Ohio St tough defensively and will have a solid game plan to thwart the Buckeyes. Looking at both factors, i see a 17-14 finish however I would not be surprised if this game went to OT.
Florida/Auburn- Florida needs a break after getting smacked around by Bama and LSU. Auburn has been hanging tough but did not look too good against Arkansas. I think both teams are looking at this game as a must win if either wants to have a successful season and play in a decent bowl. I expect both teams to put their best foot forward and to score a lot of points and this game should fly over 50.
T. Tech- Seriously? T Tech is coming off a loss and they are playing the red hot K State team and are a favorite? These kinds of games have been killing me, all signs point to Vegas telling us to bet T. Tech. I hope they are right on this one. I really don't want to go down to K St 3 weeks in a row.
Anyhow...here goes.
Top Picks
Wisconsin -23 (first half) vs Indiana
East Carolina -14 vs Memphis
Leans
Tennessee/LSU under 46
Ohio St/Illini under 44.5
Florida/Auburn over 50
Texas Tech -3.5 vs K State
Writeups:
Wisconsin- Of course we remember the beating that Wiscy put on the Hoosiers last year and it will be hard for the badgers not to repeat with another massacre. However such a big deal was made out of that game there will be some pressure for HC Bielema to call off the dogs earlier than last year.
On the other hand, the BCS standings come out next week and Wisconsin will have ground to make up so I do think they will put the hammer down early and have more than a 23 point lead going into halftime.
East Carolina- They had a pretty miserable performance last week against Houston and will be able to get "some hair of the dog" this week when they take on a truly bad football team in Memphis. I look for the ECU offense to get back on track and even a poor defensive time like the Pirates can slow down the beleaguered Memphis squad.
Tennessee/LSU- It will be pretty amazing if Tenn can put up 13 or more points with a back up QB. LSU could run up the score but I think the Tenn defense will hold their own for a while before wilting. LSU does not need style points as they will be either the #1 or 2 team in the BCS standings and their tilt with Bama is on the horizon so the best they can do here is get the win with no major injuries.
Ohio St/Illinois- I am very tempted go with the Buckeyes in this one but I think the under is the way to play it. I am very confident that Illinois will come out tight as they are in uncharted waters with their 6-0 start. Also, Ron Zook has played Ohio St tough defensively and will have a solid game plan to thwart the Buckeyes. Looking at both factors, i see a 17-14 finish however I would not be surprised if this game went to OT.
Florida/Auburn- Florida needs a break after getting smacked around by Bama and LSU. Auburn has been hanging tough but did not look too good against Arkansas. I think both teams are looking at this game as a must win if either wants to have a successful season and play in a decent bowl. I expect both teams to put their best foot forward and to score a lot of points and this game should fly over 50.
T. Tech- Seriously? T Tech is coming off a loss and they are playing the red hot K State team and are a favorite? These kinds of games have been killing me, all signs point to Vegas telling us to bet T. Tech. I hope they are right on this one. I really don't want to go down to K St 3 weeks in a row.
Wednesday, October 12, 2011
Shooting Fish in a Barrel
That pretty much what Saturday was, easy money. Name a favorite and they likely covered, name a top 10 team that was favored and they definitely covered so how in the **** did I do so bad on Saturday. I am not going to mention bad luck anymore because that just seems to bring me more bad luck.
However, of all the top 12 teams, only one favorite did not cover- Nebraska. Yep one of my picks. Also, home dogs are a proven way to stay ahead of the Vegas curve and three home dogs put together solid first halves (Utah, Northwestern & Tennessee) and all melted down in the 2nd half. It was not pretty for me.
Today is Wednesday and I am ready to move one. For those of you still looking at my picks, it is probably wise to consider going the other way for a while until I can get this straightened out.
However, of all the top 12 teams, only one favorite did not cover- Nebraska. Yep one of my picks. Also, home dogs are a proven way to stay ahead of the Vegas curve and three home dogs put together solid first halves (Utah, Northwestern & Tennessee) and all melted down in the 2nd half. It was not pretty for me.
Today is Wednesday and I am ready to move one. For those of you still looking at my picks, it is probably wise to consider going the other way for a while until I can get this straightened out.
Saturday, October 8, 2011
College Football Sides 10/8 Part 2
Time to move to the evening games...
5 Star Pick
Tennessee +2.5 vs Georgia
Nebraska -10.5 vs Ohio St
Top Picks
Northwestern +7.5 vs Michigan
San Diego St +4.5 vs TCU
Leans
Stanford -29.5 vs Colorado
Houston/ECU over 74
Writeups:
Tennessee- It seems like the college football world has a bit of amnesia when it comes to Georgia. Their coach was on the hot seat after a couple of early losses but after a couple of wins against a cupcake and the Mississippi teams alot of folks have jumped on the Bulldog bandwagon again. I am not quite there yet and I like the vols to really step it up at home. The Vols have been solid at home and they will have a strong home crowd. Look for the Vols to get a nice signature win at home.
Nebraska- I am having a bit of trouble understanding those on the Ohio St side tonight. Yes, Nebraska got hammered on the road last week but that was at Wisconsin. Ohio St got hammered at home and now people really expect the Buckeyes to regroup and got their offense going on the road at Nebraska's Big Ten home opener debut. I really don't see that happening. Nebraska will be able to score enough in this win and their defense will do the rest. It won't be pretty for the Buckeye faithful.
Northwestern- Nice home dog opportunity here. Northwestern is coming off a hard road loss last week and this game will help them get past that loss and get their season back on track. Michigan has been playing well but their competition has not been good and their defense has not been tested since the ND game. I expect a pretty high scoring affair and do look for NU to have a real good chance to win the game and definitely come through with the cover.
San Diego St- TCU has flat out struggled against passing teams and that is SDST's strength. This is a big spot for SDST to prove that they are a contender in the Mountain West. I expect the Aztecs to put their best foot forward to be in a position for the straight up and certainly covering the 4.5
Stanford- Stanford has been rolling and clearly outclass Colorado in all phases. The only question here is motivation. They could put up 7-8 TD's on Colorado but definitely might slow things in the 2nd half.
Houston/ECU- Great offenses here and one really bad defense in ECU and a so so defense in Houston should get this game over the big total.
5 Star Pick
Tennessee +2.5 vs Georgia
Nebraska -10.5 vs Ohio St
Top Picks
Northwestern +7.5 vs Michigan
San Diego St +4.5 vs TCU
Leans
Stanford -29.5 vs Colorado
Houston/ECU over 74
Writeups:
Tennessee- It seems like the college football world has a bit of amnesia when it comes to Georgia. Their coach was on the hot seat after a couple of early losses but after a couple of wins against a cupcake and the Mississippi teams alot of folks have jumped on the Bulldog bandwagon again. I am not quite there yet and I like the vols to really step it up at home. The Vols have been solid at home and they will have a strong home crowd. Look for the Vols to get a nice signature win at home.
Nebraska- I am having a bit of trouble understanding those on the Ohio St side tonight. Yes, Nebraska got hammered on the road last week but that was at Wisconsin. Ohio St got hammered at home and now people really expect the Buckeyes to regroup and got their offense going on the road at Nebraska's Big Ten home opener debut. I really don't see that happening. Nebraska will be able to score enough in this win and their defense will do the rest. It won't be pretty for the Buckeye faithful.
Northwestern- Nice home dog opportunity here. Northwestern is coming off a hard road loss last week and this game will help them get past that loss and get their season back on track. Michigan has been playing well but their competition has not been good and their defense has not been tested since the ND game. I expect a pretty high scoring affair and do look for NU to have a real good chance to win the game and definitely come through with the cover.
San Diego St- TCU has flat out struggled against passing teams and that is SDST's strength. This is a big spot for SDST to prove that they are a contender in the Mountain West. I expect the Aztecs to put their best foot forward to be in a position for the straight up and certainly covering the 4.5
Stanford- Stanford has been rolling and clearly outclass Colorado in all phases. The only question here is motivation. They could put up 7-8 TD's on Colorado but definitely might slow things in the 2nd half.
Houston/ECU- Great offenses here and one really bad defense in ECU and a so so defense in Houston should get this game over the big total.
College Football Sides 10/8 Part 1
This will be the day that I break out...maybe. Last week a couple of games went against me in the final minutes hoping I can get some of the bad luck to turn to good luck.
Here we go!
5 Star Pick
Missouri -4 vs Kansas St.
Top Picks
Indiana +14 vs Illinois
LSU -13 vs Florida
Air Force/ND over 56
Leans
Utah +3.5 vs Arizona St
Writeups:
Missouri- As I do as often as I can, I am taking my cue on this one from Vegas. Everything is going well for K St. They held on vs a late Miami charge, stood their ground against a good Baylor team and now are facing a Missouri team that is 2-2 and has lost both of their road games. So why is Missouri then a favorite on the road today? I am not sure but Vegas has their reasons and they know a lot more than I do so I will bite...BIG on this side.
Indiana- This is a go against Illinois as much as anything. Both teams have played close games (when against decent competition) the difference is that Illinois has pulled their games off and won and Indiana has lost. A red flag for me is Ron Zook admitting that he is trying to keep his team motivated for this one, I think Illinois will come out flat and Indiana will give them as much as the Illini can handle again.
LSU - This one looks a little too easy which scares me a bit but LSU and Bama need to keep winning impressively so even the loser of the eventual match will still have a shot at the BCS championship even with a loss. For this game specifically, the Gators could not move the ball with their starting QB and then looked even worse with the back up. Now they are facing the Tigers on the road with a back up QB. Unless LSU's offense implodes, this will get ugly.
Air Force/ND- I kind of like ND to cover the 14 as well but it is tough to give the Service Academies too many points as they keep attacking. However I don't believe AF's defense will be able to slow down ND's offense and ND will have enough defensive breakdowns that this game flies over.
Utah- Everything in this games points to an ASU win. They have been playing well, getting conference wins, Utah has a back up QB going but yet they are only a 3.5 favorite. I really expected the spread to be much higher. I think ASU is the classic sucker bet and that Utah comes out fired up and handles the Sun Devils at home.
Here we go!
5 Star Pick
Missouri -4 vs Kansas St.
Top Picks
Indiana +14 vs Illinois
LSU -13 vs Florida
Air Force/ND over 56
Leans
Utah +3.5 vs Arizona St
Writeups:
Missouri- As I do as often as I can, I am taking my cue on this one from Vegas. Everything is going well for K St. They held on vs a late Miami charge, stood their ground against a good Baylor team and now are facing a Missouri team that is 2-2 and has lost both of their road games. So why is Missouri then a favorite on the road today? I am not sure but Vegas has their reasons and they know a lot more than I do so I will bite...BIG on this side.
Indiana- This is a go against Illinois as much as anything. Both teams have played close games (when against decent competition) the difference is that Illinois has pulled their games off and won and Indiana has lost. A red flag for me is Ron Zook admitting that he is trying to keep his team motivated for this one, I think Illinois will come out flat and Indiana will give them as much as the Illini can handle again.
LSU - This one looks a little too easy which scares me a bit but LSU and Bama need to keep winning impressively so even the loser of the eventual match will still have a shot at the BCS championship even with a loss. For this game specifically, the Gators could not move the ball with their starting QB and then looked even worse with the back up. Now they are facing the Tigers on the road with a back up QB. Unless LSU's offense implodes, this will get ugly.
Air Force/ND- I kind of like ND to cover the 14 as well but it is tough to give the Service Academies too many points as they keep attacking. However I don't believe AF's defense will be able to slow down ND's offense and ND will have enough defensive breakdowns that this game flies over.
Utah- Everything in this games points to an ASU win. They have been playing well, getting conference wins, Utah has a back up QB going but yet they are only a 3.5 favorite. I really expected the spread to be much higher. I think ASU is the classic sucker bet and that Utah comes out fired up and handles the Sun Devils at home.
Thursday, October 6, 2011
Thursday Night Football 10/6
No official picks for me tonight but some thoughts.
Oregon -24 vs Cal- The case for Oregon is it is about time their high powered offense kicks into high gear and their defense shuts down Cal enough to cover the big number. For Cal, they are a bit of an unknown as they have not played any high profile games and can make a big statement tonight.
I don't know enough about Cal to come up with a side in this one but if I had to pick a side it would be Oregon. They need to close the gap with the other top 10 teams so even if they lose to Stanford, they can still get a shot at an at large BCS bid
I will be back with a full slate on Saturday and am looking at the Friday night game as well.
Oregon -24 vs Cal- The case for Oregon is it is about time their high powered offense kicks into high gear and their defense shuts down Cal enough to cover the big number. For Cal, they are a bit of an unknown as they have not played any high profile games and can make a big statement tonight.
I don't know enough about Cal to come up with a side in this one but if I had to pick a side it would be Oregon. They need to close the gap with the other top 10 teams so even if they lose to Stanford, they can still get a shot at an at large BCS bid
I will be back with a full slate on Saturday and am looking at the Friday night game as well.
Saturday, October 1, 2011
College Football Picks- Oct 1st Part 4
Here are the rest of my sides for the night games.
Top Pick
Stanford -23 vs UCLA
Leans
Wisconsin/Nebraska over 55
Florida +4 vs Alabama
Writeups
Stanford- This looks too easy but I will take my chances that after a week off Stanford will come out and pound UCLA. The Cardinal have the advantage at just about every area and UCLA will have all kinds of trouble scoring and no one has stopped the Cardinal's offense in quite a while and I don't expect that to start tonight.
Wisconsin/Nebraska over- Traditionally these have been defensive minded teams and both teams have talent on defense but this year both of these teams are offensively oriented. It will be an electric atmosphere but I don't think that will frazzle Nebraska and they will be able to operate offensively. For Wisconsin, there offense has been fantastic and that should continue again.
Florida- The gators are a bit of an unknown but I think this year they will be much better prepared for the Nick Saban defense than last year when they were destroyed. I think this will come down to final minute and who ever wins will do by less than 4 points.
Top Pick
Stanford -23 vs UCLA
Leans
Wisconsin/Nebraska over 55
Florida +4 vs Alabama
Writeups
Stanford- This looks too easy but I will take my chances that after a week off Stanford will come out and pound UCLA. The Cardinal have the advantage at just about every area and UCLA will have all kinds of trouble scoring and no one has stopped the Cardinal's offense in quite a while and I don't expect that to start tonight.
Wisconsin/Nebraska over- Traditionally these have been defensive minded teams and both teams have talent on defense but this year both of these teams are offensively oriented. It will be an electric atmosphere but I don't think that will frazzle Nebraska and they will be able to operate offensively. For Wisconsin, there offense has been fantastic and that should continue again.
Florida- The gators are a bit of an unknown but I think this year they will be much better prepared for the Nick Saban defense than last year when they were destroyed. I think this will come down to final minute and who ever wins will do by less than 4 points.
Clemson @ Virginia Tech Pick
Before I get on to my final slate of games, putting up this side.
5 Star Pick
Clemson/Va Tech over 51
Writeup:
This is one of many great matchups tonight. Clemson has been on a roll and comes into town looking to become a legitimate top 10 team. Va Tech has been taking care of business but against their usual weak early season schedule.
Although Va Tech is a defensive oriented team they have not played a team with the offensive skills that Clemson brings and I think their defense will struggle to contain the Clemson attack. Clemson has shown against Auburn and Florida St that their defense is not consistent and will give up the big play. Va Tech has enough playmakers to exploit the Clemson weaknesses.
I also like each team to make some big special teams plays that will lead to scores.
5 Star Pick
Clemson/Va Tech over 51
Writeup:
This is one of many great matchups tonight. Clemson has been on a roll and comes into town looking to become a legitimate top 10 team. Va Tech has been taking care of business but against their usual weak early season schedule.
Although Va Tech is a defensive oriented team they have not played a team with the offensive skills that Clemson brings and I think their defense will struggle to contain the Clemson attack. Clemson has shown against Auburn and Florida St that their defense is not consistent and will give up the big play. Va Tech has enough playmakers to exploit the Clemson weaknesses.
I also like each team to make some big special teams plays that will lead to scores.
College Football Picks- Oct 1 Part 2
Moving on to the afternoon games.
Top Picks:
Ohio St/Mich St under 43
USC -12.5 vs Arizona
Baylor -3.5 vs K. State
Leans:
Ga Tech/NC St over 63.5
Colo St -3.5 vs San Jose St
Writeups:
Ohio St/Mich St - Going back to well on this side. 2 defensive minded coaches square off on this game. Ohio St's offense was pretty good last week but they were pretty one dimensional- running the ball primarily. I doubt the Buckeyes will be able to run the ball that well against MSU. Conversely, MSU has not gotten their offense on track all that well this year. A tough road environment is probably not a likely place for the Spartans offense to break out.
Unless special teams play a big scoring role this should fall under.
USC- I have been leery of taking USC as a favorite as they never seem to play to their potential or a complete game. However Arizona is in a pretty bad place as their losing streak continues and they were not able to take advantage of their home field. If USC can avoid the dumb penalties and mental errors, they have more than enough talent to dominate this game.
Baylor -3.5- Baylor has been rolling and now will hit the road for a decent test. I like this side as K State played way above their head last week and that effort I think contributed to a lower line this week. I don't think we will see Baylor as less than a double digit favorite against the rest of the 2nd tier teams in the Big 12 so take advantage.
Ga Tech/NC St- My thinking on this side is that Ga Tech will keep the offense going and the Wolfpack will need to open up their offense to keep up. I think this will be the proverbial track meet and whoever can minimize offensive mistakes can get the win.
Colo St- The Rams got a much needed win last week and the Rams coach is fighting to keep his job so I like his chances on keeping his team focused on getting a win at home vs a lesser team. SJST is in full building mode and will compete hard but will not be a real threat to get a road win unless CSU makes a bunch of mistakes.
Northwestern @ Illinois Pick
Most of the games I like, start this aftenoon or evening. I will be back with additional sides later but to get started, here is the first game I like.
Lean
Northwestern +10 vs Illinois
Writeup
The Wildcats got pretty beat up last year by Illinois and were especially dominated by Illinois' offensive line which pushed NU's defensive line and linebackers all over the field. So far this season, NU has had much better line play especially on defense.
Illinois is a bit of a mystery as they played 2 cupcakes before there big win against Arizona St but they followed that up with a struggle against W. Michigan last week.
In this game, I expect Illinois to come out with the same formula as last year and try to run the ball. I expect NU to be ready for that and to be able to shut them down initially. The other feature of this game is the return of Dan Persa who will be making his debut after a bad achilles injury last year. He could be rusty or could be back to his form of last year. If Persa was full strength and had played a bit more I would probably rate this as a top pick but since he is an unknown to this point I will be a bit more conservative.
More to come...
Lean
Northwestern +10 vs Illinois
Writeup
The Wildcats got pretty beat up last year by Illinois and were especially dominated by Illinois' offensive line which pushed NU's defensive line and linebackers all over the field. So far this season, NU has had much better line play especially on defense.
Illinois is a bit of a mystery as they played 2 cupcakes before there big win against Arizona St but they followed that up with a struggle against W. Michigan last week.
In this game, I expect Illinois to come out with the same formula as last year and try to run the ball. I expect NU to be ready for that and to be able to shut them down initially. The other feature of this game is the return of Dan Persa who will be making his debut after a bad achilles injury last year. He could be rusty or could be back to his form of last year. If Persa was full strength and had played a bit more I would probably rate this as a top pick but since he is an unknown to this point I will be a bit more conservative.
More to come...
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