12/31 Bowl Picks

Back in action after a few days in transit.

I always like the 12/31 bowl games although this year's slate is just ok. Here goes.

Top Picks

Ga Tech/USC over 62
USC team over 34.5
Vandy -7.5 vs NC St

Leans


Iowa St/Tulsa over 51
LSU/Clemson 1st Half under 29.5

Vandy- After a rough start, Vandy turned it up and put together a solid. They did not step and beat any of the elite SEC teams however they are not facing an elite team in NC St. The Wolfpack are in transition and without their head coach O'Brien leading them in this game, I don't think they will put up much resistance.

USC- This is a bit of wildcard game, not sure exactly with USC team will show up. I am confident though that SC has loads of talent on the offensive side of the ball and if some of the marquee players are not available then their is another horse in the stable ready to go. With that in mind, I am taking their offense to score against a hapless Ga Tech defense. I think Ga Tech will be able to break some big runs which will help the overall total get their as well.

Iowa St/Tulsa- Two offensive minded teams will end up relying on their offenses to get over the total.

LSU/Clemson- will likely have an update on this side later, however I do expect both teams to come out hitting hard on the defensive side early and for the game to start slow. The offenses will eventually take over however the first half will be a hard hitting slugfest.

Bowl Games - 12/27

Three games today- some interesting matchups but nothing jumps out to me as a lock so here are 3 leans.

Leans:

Bowling Green +7 and over 45.5
Duke +9
UCLA/Baylor over 82

Writeups

Bowling Green- this line has really puzzled me. It is a very low total from what I expected and a pretty big point spread. There must be something to Bowling Green's defense to make the total so low and therefore I like them getting points. I do think there will be just enough scoring to get over however I will not be shocked if it does not make it.

Duke- First bowl game in a while for Duke and I think they will be ready and come out sharp. Cinci has the talent edge however Duke will be motivated and will cover the nine.

UCLA/Baylor- Two offensive oriented teams will get into a major shootout in San Diego. I am probably jumping on the first half over as well. Enjoy the offensive show.

Little Ceasar's Pizza Bowl

Well, I can't say I know much about these teams. I had a good sense of C. Michigan back in the Butch Jones days however I did not catch too much of their action. They are playing a likely one hit wonder in Western Kentucky who will be pretty excited to be in a bowl.

I guess I will have a small lean towards Central Michigan however if I get this one wrong, I won't lose much sleep over it.

Hawaii Bowl

Aaaahh, the Hawaii bowl, I wish I was there. But I won't be so I will pick a winner instead.

Top Pick

Fresno St/SMU over 59.5

Nice bounceback year for Fresno St. The Bulldogs new head coach came in and got the most out his players and they had a very solid year. SMU got a little better however they have not had the kind of success that they were expecting after hiring June Jones.

I am expecting SMU to come out and play well. We all know about Jones success at Hawaii and I expect him to have his team sharp in front of a friendly crowd. Fresno St does have the talent edge however and both teams will put up a strong showing and this game will get over 59.5.

New Orleans Bowl

Ok, here is another bowl game to make a pretty good sized play on.

Top Pick

UL Lafayette -5.5 vs E. Carolina

Lean

UL Lafayette's team over has not been posted yet however I expect to be around 29 and I will be jumping on that side as well. I will post that side on twitter @swicatsides

Nice year for the Raging Cajuns and they are awarded with a bowl in what should be a very pro Louisiana crowd. E. Carolina had a pretty solid season as well however they did not fare well when traveling to any road games against above average teams.

UL Lafayette will use the home crowd to its full advantage and rack up the points against an E. Carolina team that has struggled defensively all season.

Beef O'Brady Bowl

Not much interest in this one for me.

Lean

C. Florida -7.5 vs Ball St.

I did not watch much of C. Florida this year. I did catch some Ball St. and based on what I saw with Ball st and know about C. Florida's season, I am leaning towards the Knights. Anyhow, I always advocate for watching too much football however you probably have a better holiday party to get to on Friday so keep an eye on this one but don't extend yourself too much.

San Diego County Poinsettia Bowl

First game bowl to take the dog on the money line.

5 Star Pick

San Diego St +2.5

Lean

SD St/BYU under 49

The Aztecs seemed to get off to a pretty rough start this year losing to San Jose St however as the season played out, that loss was not so bad. Meanwhile after the rough start the Aztecs got on a real roll and quietly won out. BYU came into the season facing a challenging schedule with pretty high hopes. The Cougars had some signature wins as well as some pretty bad losses.

The Aztecs will be playing essentially in front of a home crowd buzzing around the excitement around the football and basketball programs, expect that to be a factor. BYU has struggled away from home and I expect that to continue in this game. The BYU defense has been stout all season however they will need their offense to carry the load in this game and that will not happen against an Aztec defense that will be able to shut down their run game and force turnovers when BYU is forced to throw.

Besides taking the points, take the Aztecs on the money line +140 to sweeten the pot.

NBA 12/14

Full slate of games tonight. Here are the ones I like:

Top Picks

76ers/Pacers under 181.5
Celtics/Rockets over 205
Golden St -4.5

Leans:

Wizards +5.5 vs Lakers
Nuggets -1 vs Memphis

Writeups:

76ers/Pacers- Neither team has a dynamic offense and both have been hit by injuries. Both teams will run when they have the right opportunity but more than likely they will be walking it up the court and will try to maximize their possessions. I don't see either team hitting a high percentage and this game falling well under the total.

Celtics/Rockets- The Rockets have really been pushing the ball and the Celtics are comfortable in that type of game. This is a nice non conference matchup and should be fast moving. Look for the winner to score in the 110-115 range and that will push the game over.

Golden St- Time to keep rolling on the bandwagon of the Warriors. The spread is a little bigger for a road game however they have great momentum and will be looking to keep their road win streak alive. The magic won't be up for this game and the Warriors will take advantage.

Wizards- I really hate to take bad teams no matter the situation however I am looking for the Wizards to be playing in front of a  full house and come out with the type of effort they had against Miami. This should be enough to get the cover against the stumbling Lakers. However don't go too crazy, it is the Wizards after all.

Nuggets- Good matchup here for the nuggets. They should be able to handle Memphis on the inside and if they can get their back court scoring then they will handle their business in this one.

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

Top Pick

Utah St/Toledo Over 58

Lean

Utah St -9.5

Writeup:

Utah State had a pretty impressive season with two tough losses which they could have won. They are playing a Toledo team that won't come into the game afraid however Utah St has the talent edge. I like this game to start out pretty close and then settle into more of slug fest. Toledo will score enough points to push the game over however they will not be good enough to cover the spread.

Both teams will be playing pretty loose however Utah St has a bit more to prove and that will show up in the final score.

New Mexico Bowl

Time to kick the bowl season off. Here is my first pick.

Leans

Nevada +9 and under 77

Nevada- I don't see a lot of edges in this game. Both coaches are on solid ground and not under much pressure to win this bowl. Rich Rod has been well received and his team can certainly benefit from the extra practice. Nevada was in a bit of a rebuilding mode and would like to get momentum going into the off season. Nevada did not play the same type of schedule as Arizona but Zona stumbled quite a few times against better opposition.

I am not expecting a real fast start to this game and there will be some nervous moments taking both the dog and the under however the game should stay under when the dust settles. Nevada is a bit more battle tested and will be able to hold their own and stay within the 9.

NBA 12/12

I found 3 NBA plays for tonight.

Top Pick

San Antonio/Utah over 209

Leans

Philadelphia -3 vs Chicago
Golden St +8.5 vs Miami

Writeups

Both the Spurs and the Jazz like to push the tempo and have shot makers. This should be an easy over.

76ers- The sixers lost a tough game to the Bulls recently and will be ready to take advantage of the Bulls coming off a tough game last night.

Golden St- The Warriors have been good ball. Time for them to make a names for themselves tonight.

NBA and NCAA Hoops 12/8

Here are my plays for tonight.

NBA

Top Picks

NY Knicks -2.5 vs Chicago

Dallas/Houston over 209

NCAA

Butler/Northwestern Over 128.5

Writeups:

NY- The Knicks have been playing quite well and are coming off an impressive win at Miami. The Bulls have been hit and miss this season however they have consistently struggled vs high powered offenses. The Knicks will put pressure on the Bulls offense to keep pace which they have not shown they can do consistently. The Knicks will be able to pull away in this one and easily cover the small number.

Dallas/Houston- Both teams like to push the ball and defense is not a top priority. Even a subpar shooting game by one of the teams will not stop this game from going over and if both teams are on then this game will fly over.

Butler/Northwestern- Although both teams at times like to play a slower paced games, they are at their hearts offensive minded teams. This is a pretty important early season matchup that will affect their tournament chances later as both teams will be close or on the bubble. Both teams can hit the three and can score in transition when its there. This game will not fly over the total but will get their when its all said and done. 

Big 10 Champ, NCAA Hoops & NBA 12/1

Fun night tonight with picks going in the 3 big sports tonight.

Big 10 Championship Lean

Nebraska/Wisconsin over 50.5

NCAA Hoops

Top Picks

Wyoming -1 vs Colorado

UCLA -1.5 vs San Diego St

NBA Top Pick

Golden St -4.5 vs Pacers

Writeups

Neb/Wisconsin- In a very down year for the big 10, there is little buzz over this game. At the end of the day, both teams will rely on their offenses to get them to the Rose Bowl. I doubt either team's defense will hold up  in key situation so take the over in this one.

Wyoming and UCLA- I am picking two upsets here except both teams are actually favorites. Wyoming has gotten off to a nice start and will be looking to get a huge resume builder by taking out Colorado. The Buffaloes have been playing well however they will fall in a tough road spot here.

UCLA has gotten off to a rockier start than they would have liked however they are a talented group and although SDST is tough a as well, UCLA has the advantage in the paint and that will be the difference.

Golden St- It's Saturday night and Golden St has been money so far on Saturday nights at home. They will continue that against Indiana who is not playing well and will not be in this game for long tonight against the Warriors who are steadily gaining confidence.