Recap & Look Ahead to 10/29

OK- another ho hum Saturday for me. Some good picks and some clunkers but finally we had some action with ranked teams.

One of my tried and true betting edges is to bet against a team suffering a major letdown after a brutal loss.

It worked on Saturday when Illinois coming off a brutal loss to Ohio St then laid another egg against Purdue, same thing for Ga Tech who got crushed after losing the week before.

To qualify, the loss has to come in the 2nd half of the season and the loss has to cost the losing team something pretty significant. With the chaos that happened on Saturday, my lineup is already half set.

Let's start with Wisconsin and Oklahoma. They not only lost a game but also lost a shot at the BCS championship and likely a BCS bowl game opportunity. This week Wisconsin travels to Columbus to face Ohio St coming off a bye week and what will be a fired up and hostile crowd. I love the Buckeyes to get the straight up win but they are getting 7 points which is a lock.

Oklahoma meanwhile has to travel to Kansas St which finds itself in the BCS mix. K St is catching 13.5 points at the moment. I can see Oklahoma gutting this one out and getting a win but I don't see them shaking off the cobwebs completely and covering that big of a number.

The next team to fade is the fighting Irish. They were on the BCS comeback trail, had a rare night game, new really golden helmets but were handled from start to finish by USC and had some embarrassing miscues in the process. That loss definitely took the wind out of the sails and I don't expect them to blow out Navy this week. We all know that Navy is always intense but another win over ND but make their season again. I think the Midshipmen have a chance at the win and I definitely believe they will cover the 20 points.

On the reverse bad loss theory, I also like Nebraska to catch Michigan St in over celebrating mode and to cover the 4 points at home.

By Saturday, the coaches and talking heads will have rationalized the bad losses however I have seen over and over again the bad loss hangover be too much for college players to overcome.