Week Zero and Week 1 College Football Picks

I am easing into week zero with only one ATS bet locked in. My play is Vandy -6.5 vs Hawaii. 

As you are likely aware, Hawaii had a rough off-season and lost a lot of players, and hired a new coaching staff. For Vandy, they spent the off-season listening to insult after insult after suffering through a winless SEC season last year. We often like to look at top Group of 5 teams and say how many losses they would have if they played a SEC or Big Ten schedule. For Vandy, I do the opposite. If Vandy played in a Group of 5 conference they would definitely be a perennial bowl team so taking on a Mountain West team in Hawaii should be a nice match-up for them.

Week Zero live betting

There are two games that I think more sense to bet live than prior to kick-off. 

North Texas at UTEP- This game is lined at -1 at the time of writing. As the line indicates, this game can either way. I like the game to end up being decided by less than 4 points either way. With that in mind, I am confident that I can get +4.5 during the game for both teams. Both teams should have a couple of runs and have a TD lead where I can lock in a nice number and get a decent shot at a middle.

Charlotte at FAU- This game is lined at FAU -7.5. This line seems a little high to me however I want to see some game action before getting involved. FAU has some nice pieces and is at home. Charlotte seems like a live dog though with their QB and coach in place. I feel like we can figure out if this will be a close one or if FAU can pull away easily in this one.

Week 1 Picks

Purdue +3.5 vs Penn St- There has been a lot of talk about PSU being a dark horse to win the Big Ten. That might ultimately be true however I think they will be in for a struggle in week 1 against Purdue. The Boilermakers had a pretty quiet off-season and have been well coached under the current regime. I think they will be up for this game, take advantage of an opening night home crowd and execute their game plan. Penn St might have enough talent to get the win but I don't think that is likely and not by more than a FG.

NCST/ECU over 55.5- We've heard a lot about NC ST this spring and summer and they will be a formidable team. ECU had a nice second half to their season last year and are showing signs of competing for their league title. Both teams are offensive minded and I like them to move the ball and for there to be late scores at the end of each half and to see this one get the over. 

Buffalo/Maryland over 63.5- We have seen Maryland each of the last 2 years come out of the gate and score points. The Terps continue to add talent so I don't see any reason why this year will be different. Buffalo is not the same team as a few years back but they have talent at RB and will do their part to push this one over.

Syracuse +3.5 over Louisville. Babers is supposed to be on the hot seat for Cuse and usually, I am a play against teams with coaches under high pressure. However, I really liked what I saw from Cuse last year after they switched QB's. They finally seemed to play their offense the way the Babers wanted and I think that will carry over to this season. Louisville is a difficult read and they may be a clearly better team however I don't think so. The Orangemen will be stout on defense and I think they will come away with the W.

Week 1 Live Picks

TCU at Colorado- This line has already moved quite a bit for TCU and I don't see it stopping. I think a likely scenario is that TCU gets an early lead and the line inflates to 15-17 points. Unless Colorado really is a trainwreck, I think that is the time to get on the Buffaloes. I think they have enough talent to cover a line like that even if they get off to a poor start.

I am working on some more week 1 sides and will post them into this week and early next week. 

2022 College Football Handicapping Approach

 Welcome Back College Football!

Like you, I can't wait for the season to start. 

Last year, about this time I published my preseason top situational plays. I had a really nice response to the picks and thank everyone who read and/or commented. The plays I posted worked quite well in September however were less successful into October and beyond. Therefore, I am changing how I will be posting picks this season. I will not be forecasting more than 2 weeks out at a time as I found that into October my assumptions didn't hold up as well as my picks within the first few weeks of September. 

So in a separate post, I will be posting my week 0 amd week 1 picks. I will have 2 categories. Picks ATS before the games kick off and then games that I will be betting exclusively live where I think there will be great opportunities to get far better numbers and middle opportunities once the game kicks off. 

I will also try to update the blog more often but my picks will always be on twitter,

Have a great season!

Preseason Top Situational #CFB Picks

Thanks for checking out my pre-season top situational plays. I believe in taking a look at the whole season and figuring out where a team may be up or down or well or poorly prepared to take on an opponent. The games below fit those categories in various ways.  

My analysis intends to look past simply adjusting power ratings on a team week to week. 

As many of these games are scheduled well into the season, I will be watching the teams involved to see if my assumptions hold or if significant injuries or player/coach performance does not hold up. 

You will see many of the situations involve non Power 5 teams although I still have plenty of those games as well as I tend to find more value with the teams that have less eyeballs on them. However once the season gets going, I will find plenty of spots with the SEC, PAC12 and so on. 

I have sorted the situational plays first by the top situations that I like and then by date. The lines listed are taken from the VSIN College Betting Guide and will be updated with actual lines as the season unfolds. 

MY TOP SITUATIONS

September 11 Pittsburgh pk vs. Tennessee. There is always optimism when a school like Tennessee hires a new coach after ending the tenure of bad choice. However, this game should be a tough reality check for the Vols. Pitt has a stout defense and we remember when Pitt upset UCF a few years ago. Heupel will be early in his installation of his offense and the Pitt team will be more than up to the task of stopping it. The Vols defense is not likely good enough to stop the Pitt offense either which should make this a long afternoon for Tennessee. 

Sept 18 Liberty -28.5 vs Old Dominion. ODU did not play a game in 2020 and is working under a new coach and system. In Liberty they will be facing a steamroller who should take advantage of the undermanned ODU team. Also should be a good spot to take Liberty 1st half as they should open the flood gates and take full control of the game in the 2nd quarter. Jump on this game as soon as the lines open, 

Sept 25 Fresno St -16 vs UNLV. Fresno likely will be 2-2 heading into this game and might have at least one lopsided loss which should keep the spread down. Fresno has 18 returning starters and a 2nd year HC that will have implemented his system this season, unlike last year. UNLV will be coming off 2 losses and expect this to be the 3rd and to be in ugly fashion for the Rebels as the reality of their sub par roster becomes fully evident. 

September 25 Kent State +11 vs Maryland. Kent State has a high octane offense and should be ready to show it off on the road against a Big Ten foe in Maryland. The value in this one is that Kent St plays Iowa the week prior who likely will put the clamps on the Golden Flashes offense which should allow a few extra points to be added to the spread. We know that Maryland's defense is not at the same level as the Hawkeyes so look to grab the points in this one. The flashes will put on a show in this game and give the Terps fits. 

September 25 Georgia Tech +11.5 vs UNC. Georgia Tech is now in year 3 of the Geoff Collins era and will be looking for signature wins. They seemingly have increased the talent level however are still not in the elite of the ACC. With that said, this game could set up nicely for Ga Tech to cover and potentially win SU. UNC has a pretty tough slate of games and could be in for a letdown if they beat Virginia the week before and especially if they are 3-0 heading into this game. Ga Tech will likely be coming off a loss at Clemson and it could be an ugly one giving Tech even a better value.

October 2 Florida -5 vs Kentucky. Kentucky will be installing a new offense with a new or inexperienced QB. UK should be able to manage in their games heading into this matchup however playing Florida will definitely be a problem. Florida will be doing rebuilding of their own offense however their defense will be a strength, especially the defensive backfield. Florida will be able to handle the Kentucky rushing attack and after that, they will more than likely force several turnovers against the Wildcats passing game en route to a solid victory and easy cover. 

October 7 Arkansas St +13.5 vs Coastal Carolina. This looks to be a really nice value spot for Ark St. Coastal will likely come into this game with a 5-0 record and receiving national attention. Ark St meanwhile likely will have 3 losses and will not be on too many people's radar. That in turn, should set up a nice value spot for Ark St who will be more comfortable with the new HC's system and a win here would be a program booster. Not saying there will be a SU win for Ark St but likely a solid cover for the home dog. 

October 9  S. Miss -12 vs UTEP. This game should be just what the doctor ordered for both S. Miss and for bettors on the Golden Eagles. S Miss should be coming off 2 or 3 losses and will be looking to and needing to get back on track in a big way in this game. There should be plenty of value here for S. Miss as UTEP should be coming into town after a rare win and will run into a buzzsaw on the road. 

Oct 16 Hawaii +12 vs Nevada. At times, analysts and cappers get too caught in the revenge angle. I think that will be the case in this game. Hawaii beat Nevada last year and will have confidence heading into this game. All things being equal injury-wise, plan on taking the Rainbow Warriors and the generous points. UH has held their own in recruiting and will not lay down for any team especially a conference opponent. 

October 29 Tulsa -15 vs. Navy. This is a really good situation for Tulsa. Tulsa handled Navy’s option attack with ease last season and returns most of their defense. Couple that with Tulsa having a week off and Navy coming off of a game with Cincinnati the week prior and you have a recipe for an easy winner for Tulsa. A stout defensive Tulsa team is not likely to garner the attention of the public so mark this one down now as you will likely skip by it otherwise when we get to the end of October. 

THE NEXT BEST SITUATIONS BY DATE

September 3 Northwestern/Michigan St under 45  Both teams are breaking in a new QB and have some new systems to implement. This won't be an easy one as with new QB's comes the possibility of bad turnovers leading to defensive/bad field position however both coaches will likely try to limit having the QB's doing too much in a conference game and limit risk until later in the game. By then, hopefully, time will be dwindling keeping this one under. 

Sept 4 UTSA +6.5 vs Illinois. This game could be a SU win for UTSA as they have returning experience with a 2nd-year head coach who can implement his full schemes in training camps. Illinois has better overall talent but with a new coach implementing new systems and coming off a conference game,  the Illini could be ripe for an upset

September 11 South Alabama -5.5 VS.  Bowling Green. The Jaguars brought in a new coach with previous experience at S Alabama. He should be able to get his defense in place and up to the challenge of stopping the Falcons on the road in what should be a pretty short number against a BGSU team that has a long way to go to reach basic respectability. 

September 18 Army -25 vs UConn. This is not a shocker of a pick but still should be a nice value spot on the favorite Army. UConn plays Fresno St and Purdue before heading to Army which means they will have very limited time to prepare for the triple option. Also keep in mind that UConn played zero games in 2020 so not only will they have limited time to prepare for Army, they will have few players that played against a triple option team at the FBS level. 

September 25 Tulsa -13.5 vs Arkansas St. This game will be the last of 3 straight games of tough non conference foes. Butch Jones in his 1st year will be implementing his offense and they will be running into an elite defense in Tulsa which should result in a lopsided loss for Arkansas st.

September 18 Wake Forest -6  vs Florida St. This is a nice early season sneaky spot for Wake Forest. FSU will have played a tough opener against Notre Dame and then has Jacksonville St. Wake has 2 fairly easy games to start the season so likely FSU will have a higher public perception. However, Wake will be ready for FSU and has an already underrated team and coach. I am expecting Wake to get the win here in what should be a fairly short spread and possibly as a dog if FSU beats ND in their opener.

September 18 Texas Tech -22 vs Florida International. This is a fade FIU spot. There was a lot of drama in the offseason for the offensive coordinator position where the new Off Cord bolted before spring practice which could only set back an offense without heavy pass production. They have two winnable games however heading to Lubbock will be a tall task. The FIU defense should be formidable however going against a high powered offense with a weak offense should equal a win and cover for T. Tech. 

Sept 25 Miami, Oh +8 vs, Army The Redhawks will likely be looking rather unimpressive heading into this game after dropping 2 out of 3. The advantage for Miami will be that they will have a little extra prep time for the option as they play LIU Post the week before Army and will not need to spend much time game planning for that game and instead can look forward to stopping the Army ground attack and sharpening their passing game. 

September 25 Rutgers +17.5 vs. Michigan. Both teams will be coming off about successful non conference games so not a lot of edge there. I look back at how Rutgers gave everything that Michigan wanted last season and will not be lacking confidence heading into Ann Arbor. Most Big Ten teams don't have a hard time getting up for Michigan however Schiano will have a bit of extra edge with his time at Ohio St and all the success he enjoyed with that team over Michigan. I think Schiano's confidence gives the Scarlet Knights a big enough edge to take the points in this and get the cover. 

September 25 Ohio +12 vs Northwestern. The Wildcats are breaking in several new players and coaches at key positions. NWU has a fairly easy schedule leading into this game and the line will likely be inflated if they handle their business. Ohio runs a solid and consistent program that step up in class every year so heading to Ryan Field won't intimidate the Bobcats. Add that with NWU's historic problems with beating MAC schools and you have a nice spot for a SU upset win for Ohio.

Oct 2 Kent St -18.5 Bowling Green. Kent likely will be 1-3 heading into this game after a tough September schedule. That could provide value in the betting market against a really bad Bowling Green team. Kent is the better team and should cover a hopefully shorter than the power rating line above currently is. 

October 2 New Mexico +7.5 vs Air Force. NM could be a nice value team with 14 returning starters a 2nd-year coach. NM has a chance to be 3-1 heading into this game with some momentum. AF beat NM last year 28-0 so we can presume that the NM coaching staff and players will be better prepared to face AF in this game. 

October 2. Rice -2.5 vs SMU. Rice likely will be 1-3 heading into this game after playing 3/4 games against Power 5 schools. This should lead to value on the Owls in their 1st conference game. S. Miss will be coming off a game against Alabama which should provide a bit of a let down even if they lose badly or even a bigger let down if they play Bama tough

Oct 2 UTSA -14.5 UNLV. The roadrunners will likely be coming off a loss and will need to get a win over UNLV to get their quest for a bowl bid back on track. UNLV will be coming off a tough stretch of games unlikely will be up for this non conference game on the road. 

October 2 Pitt -3 vs Ga Tech. The schedule giveth and then taketh. If Ga Tech does step up and play UNC tough the week before then this will be a good spot for Pittsburgh. Under Narduzzi, the pass defense has been stellar and should have a pretty favorable matchup against the Ga Tech passing game and can then focus on stopping the run and putting up points against what could be a gassed defense from Tech 

October 2 FSU -11 vs. Syracuse. FSU will need to get this game especially if they drop games against ND or Wake Forest. I think most people (including me) would like to see Dino Babers succeed however he has a deep recruiting hole to fill compared to other ACC teams and his team will be losing steam rapidly heading into this one. This should be a blow out win for FSU and an easy cover over what should be a reasonable point spread. 

October 2 Michigan St -11.5 vs Western Kentucky. The week before the Hilltoppers get a rare opportunity to host a Big Ten team with Indiana coming to town. Hosting the Hoosiers should get the Hilltoppers keyed up and if they are able to hang with IU then this should be a tough spot for them.  Indiana will be a much bigger/athletic team than they normally face so its a lot to ask WKU to play another physical team on the road the following week. 

Oct 9 Toledo -16.5 NIU. Check on Toledo’s record heading into this game. If they drop a game against Colorado st or Ball st then this could be a "get right" game against their undermanned rival NIU.

October 9 Illinois +16 vs. Wisconsin. This could set up to be a very nice buy low/sell high for Illinois. With the coaching change and challenging schedule, Illinois will likely be looking pretty ragged heading into this home game. Wisconsin meanwhile will have played Penn State, ND and Michigan prior to this game and who can blame them if they take this spot lightly. Bielema will of course have this game circle and have his team ready to compete though so look to grab the points. 

October 9 Rutgers +2.5 vs. Michigan St- This could be a nice value spot for Rutgers as they will likely be coming off a bad loss to Ohio St while MSU should be riding at least a 2 game winning streak. Rutgers does not have the athletes to hang with the Buckeyes however the Spartans should be more of their speed. This should be a spot to grab Rutgers on the moneyline as well taking the points as they will be in position to catch an over confident MSU team. 

Oct 16 Air Force +10.5 vs Boise. Value play as AF could be coming off back to back losses and will be motivated. Looking at Boise's schedule, they will have played primarily passing teams and will be hard pressed to be ready for the option and an AF team looking to be a factor in the Mountain West.

October 16. Miami, Oh -14.5 vs Akron. Akron will continue to struggle this season coming off a one win season in 2020. The one win last year was a win against Bowling Green and this game will be off the 2021 rematch against BGSU for Akron. Expect them to be in a let down mode either off a win or loss as they head to a MAC contending Miami, Oh who will be more than ready to deliver a beat down to the inferior opponent. 

October 16 Pitt +4.5 vs VA Tech. This is another favorable spot for Pitt. They will be coming off a bye week and Va Tech will be coming off Notre Dame. The ND game will be an all out effort for the Hokies and they have had trouble matching up with Pitt under Fuentes and I anticipate that trend will continue and Pitt gets the road win in this one. 

Oct 30 NC State -7 vs Louisville- This could be a good spot for the Wolfpack if they are rounding into form. Both teams have tough schedules heading into this match up. NC State HC Doeren does have a track record of having his teams play better as the season wears on and Louisville could be headed in the opposite direction as they head into November and the pressure is on both teams. 

November 13 Michigan St pk vs. Maryland. As with most power 5 teams, the conference schedule is a gauntlet. Maryland has a really tough stretch (Iowa, Ohio St, Minn, Indiana, Penn St) and I believe by the time they get to MSU, they will be out of gas. Meanwhile MSU has a tough schedule but not nearly as difficult and they should be steadily improving with a 2nd year coach who will be able to implement much more of the playbook on both sides of the ball. This and the home field advantage should lead to a comfortable MSU victory. 

National Championship Betting Guide- Alabama vs. Georgia

Here is how I see the game playing out and subsequently how I would recommend wagering on it.

First, I don't have a final prediction for you. I will be looking to live bet the game once one team gets down and the line goes to 8.5-10 for either side and then taking the dog

I think the final score will be less than a TD and I can see either team winning.

I do think the game will go over and finish somewhere around 30-26. I know a lot of folks are expecting a low scoring game and if this during the regular season, I would likely agree. However since this the championship game, I do think the sense of urgency will be there and will build and each team will go faster on offense than normal and take more chances. This will lead to more turnovers, rapid changes in field position and big plays.

1st quarter

I like the Bulldogs to come out pretty strong both on offense and defense. I think we all remember their deer in headlights look last week against Oklahoma and they will not repeat that. I like taking UGA +1/2 1st quarter but small at best as we don't know how the coin flip will go.

2nd Quarter

First significant wager I have is the 2nd quarter over 13 points. I definitely think both teams will open it up this quarter and both will score a TD and I would not be surprised if they get 20-24 combined.

3rd Quarter- I expect both teams to continue at a fast pace and for turnovers to happen in this quarter. I took Fromm over .5 interceptions as I think he will throw one this quarter. I also expect the stars to shine from this point on and for Ridley to become a factor. I have him over 4.5 receptions.

4th Quarter should be a fantastic finish with quite a few fireworks as the game comes down to the final drive. I took the 4th quarter over 10.5 points as I like both teams to score TD's and more in the final quarter.

To recap, I like the following sides

• Game total over 45.5
• 2nd Quarter over 13
• Fromm interceptions over .5
• Ridley over 4.5 catches
• 4th Quarter over 10.5

College Football Picks 10/3

A little better last week and I have to say that I am feeling really good about Saturday's card.

Here we go

Top Picks

TCU -15 vs. Texas
Iowa +6 vs. Wisconsin
Northwestern -4.5 vs. Minnesota
Iowa St -17 vs. Kansas
Air Force +5.5 vs Navy

All of these plays have something in common. Basically it will be a coming out party for all of them.

TCU- style point time here. ND beat Texas handily and its now TCU's turn. Look for them to run this one up.

Iowa- I have been all over Iowa so far this season and they have been coming up strong. This game will go down to the final possession and Iowa can win this one as well as covering the 6.

Northwestern- I have been on the wrong side of the Wildcats so far so time to wise up and go with the better team. Minnesota will battle but NU will take care of business and keep the winning going.

Iowa St- Sure the cyclones are not that great but they will take this opportunity to destroy Kansas while they can.

Air Force- This is an underrated matchup, AF currently holds the Commander in Chief Trophy and will not give it up without a battle. Get on board with them as they will certainly cover the points.

College Football Picks - 9/25

Well...another lackluster Saturday last week.

I switched some things up and am looking for better results. May add a few more plays on twitter but they will likely be tails. @swicatsides

Top Picks

Bowling Green -3.5  vs Purdue
UCLA/Arizona over 65
Arizona St +5.5 vs USC

Leans:

San Diego St +14  vs. Penn St
W. Michigan +33 vs. Ohio St.
Miss St/Auburn over 59
Missouri +3 vs. Kentucky

San Diego St- Looking at 2 bad offenses and I do think that Rocky Long will put together a solid defensive plan and keep this one close.

Bowling Green- They have had some tough games and could be 2-1 vs. 1-2. Purdue is headed in the right direction but they have a long way to go. This game will be a bit of stomach ache and the Falcons will figure out the Purdue defense and put this one away late.

W. Michigan- Is this the week that Ohio St breaks out and throttles their opponent. I don't think so, they are not close to in rhythm yet on offense and W. Michigan will keep trying all the way through this one.

Miss St/Auburn- Auburn finally made a qb change and I do expect that to pay immediate dividends. Miss St will not be rolling over and both teams will score in this one and get the over.

Arizona St- Although the Sun Devils got a lucky win last year against USC, it was a win nonetheless and they will be confident going against a suddenly shaky USC team. The Trojans did not show much last week against Stanford and the Devils will be primed to keep them reeling.

UCLA/Zona- These are both offensive minded teams and UCLA was exposed last week defensively. Look for UCLA to bring their A game and all Arizona has is their offense so this one will fly.

Missouri- This is a bit contrarian as Kentucky has been getting the press while Missouri has been pretty quiet. However, I do like Missouri to play much better than last week and at worst lose this game by 3 however I am looking for a straight up Tiger win.

9/12 Recap & Look Ahead to 9/19

Blech- not a great Saturday when it came to the total plays. The best part was the BYU game needing two TD's in the last minute to push the game and of course that happened. Fortunately I was able to laugh that off.

On to this week.

Here are my initial looks-

Louisville/Clemson- I am likely taking Clemson on the $line in a parlay with some other teams. I expect L'Ville to play well and for Clemson to get the victory.

Minnesota -23.5- This is a fade play against Kent. Look for Minnesota to score early and often and to keep the Kent offense in check.

Ohio St/N. Illinois over 66.5- uh oh, trying another high total. OSU got criticized for a lackluster game so I expect them to be focused and NIU will keep trying and break through with enough points to push this one over.

Duke -3.5 vs. Northwestern- This is a 5 Star Play at the moment. NU has played well but they have played against 2 anemic offenses and will be in for a shock in this one. The NU qb has played well but he will need to win this one on the road and not sold on that.

S. Carolina +16.5 vs. Georgia- this is a definite maybe. The Gamecocks are not as bad as they looked in the first half vs. Kentucky. Not sure how good Georgia is though.

Cincinnati- -19 vs Miami, Oh- Bearcats got buzzed by Temple, look for them to take out some frustration on an undermanned Miami team.

Memphis -3 vs Bowling Green- looking at this one just because of the spread. BGSU is pretty good and they are dogs at home...hmmm.

Air Force +26.5 vs Mich St- Looking at a small play with a spartan let down and knowing that AF will not quit trying and will put points on the board if the Spartans let their guard down.

Will be adding some come Saturday. Let's go.

College Football Sides 9/12 Part 2

Rolling on with these sides-

Top Picks

Toledo/Arkansas over 56

Leans

Tennessee/Oklahoma over 63
Western Mich -4.5 vs. Ga Southern

Toledo/Arkansas- Arkansas has a top offensive line and will overpower Toledo. However Toledo is offensive minded and they will do their best to match Arkansas. The razorbacks will prevail however look for Toledo to do their part to get the over.

Tennessee/Oklahoma- downgrading this game a bit as I like it to get over however I am not that Tenn will be as loose as they were last week and if they do tighten up then Oklahoma will probably not take too many chances either. I am rolling with the over but not extending too far on this one.

Western Mich- staying with this as I am a backer of the WMU coach but I don't know enough (still) about GA. Southern to get carried away.

College Football Sides 9/12 Part 1

Got back into my regular routine this week. Looking for a nice bounceback from last week.

Here we go!

Top Picks

Colorado St +5 vs. Minnesota

Iowa -3 vs Iowa St

Cal/SD St over 59

Leans:

Wake Forest  +4 & +160 vs. Syracuse

Writeups:

Colorado St- Considering that Minnesota went toe to toe (as it is spun) vs. TCU, I would really expect Minnesota to be a solid 7-10 favorite over a team that is not held in high regard. With that in mind, I think Vegas is leading us to take the Rams. Minnesota will be in let down mode a bit after the tough loss and they are headed out to play in altitude which will effect. Also, really any one think Minnesota's QB is any good? Nah me either.

Iowa- Jumping on the Hawkeyes, I am already involved with the Hawkeyes on their season win total and I can't help but doubling down on this game. Iowa is headed to a New Year's day bowl while Iowa St is headed toward a coaching search. Iowa St will play hard but the talent differential is big for the Hawkeyes here.

Cal/SD St - Big total here and everyone knows that Rocky Long is not an offensive minded coach however I think SD St's hand will be forced and they will need to try to play catch up. Add that Cal's offense is vulnerable and I like this game to be pretty explosive. Cal is going to be a scoring machine and the loser in this one will have at least 30 points so I am not worried about this over getting there.

Wake Forest- I am rolling the dice a bit with the Deamon Deacons. I like their coach and am confident that he will have his defense prepared against a tough luck injured Syracuse offense. I think Wake's offense has improved as well and will be able to get the critical scores they need to win this game outright.

Back later with more picks....

College Football Opening Weekend Recap and Look Ahead

Well, not the best start in the world for the opening weekend. The opening weekend is all about assumptions and whether you got them right or wrong (excluding bad and good luck). For instance, I assumed Stanford would have made a concerted effort to be more aggressive and effective offensively. Wrong!

Oh well, here are a couple of look ahead spots for Saturday. Official picks will come out Friday night or Saturday AM.

Western Mich -5 vs Georgia Southern- The Broncos head coach is becoming a hot commodity as him team played well vs.mighty Mich St. I like the Broncos to keep pushing and get a win this week. I need to do a little more research on GA So but Broncos may be one of those under the radar teams to keep an eye on.

Buffalo +20.5 vs. Penn St- Wow Penn St looked bad. Certainly credit goes to Temple but hard to see the Nittany Lions scoring the 30+ points you usually need to cover a 20 point spread.

Colorado St +6.5 vs. Minnesota- The Gophers hung tough against TCU. However I think this is a tough spot heading into the altitude against a team that still has swagger left over from last year.

Boise St/BYU under 55- Looking at Boise's conservative offense and BYU's qb situation along with the importance of this game to both team, I am looking for the under here. I won't be surprised if both coaches slow play this one and try to win in the 4th quarter.

SDST/Cal over 61- Looks like Cal could be a scoring machine this year. Not much to be learned from SDST's first game but might need to ride Cal overs for a while.

Oklahoma/Tenn over 61- The Vols were explosive on offense and were not real impressive on defense. Oklahoma should be able run on them if BGSU could.

Some teams I will likely parlay in a money line parlay are Mich St, So. Carolina, Air Force and Cincinnati,

Will be back with the official plays at the end of the week.

2015 College Football Totals

After quite a bit of research, I have locked down my college football totals for the upcoming seaon.

Colorado over 5.5 

Duke over 7.5 

Illinois under 4.5 

Iowa over 7.5 

Ohio St under 11.5 

S. Carolina over 6.5 

Colorado- I am buying in a little to the coach speak about his team. The Buffs coach makes some good points about hanging in for many close games. The big reason for me is the soft non conference schedule. I think they can get all 4 games and at least 3 wins. That leaves 1-2 in conference wins needed which I think will happen.

Duke- The Blue Devils are a proverbial no respect team. Under Cutlcliffe though, they just keep on winning games. I don't expect a let up this year as his program is fully bought into the system and the players execute. Add a down overall ACC and that adds up to 8-9 wins for Duke.

Illinois- This was one of the first teams that I identified for a down year. Nothing has changed my opinion and in fact the morale is probably lower as not only is the head coach on the hot but so are several other members of the athletic department including the director. On the field,the talent is low and they have had key injuries. I am looking for them to drop their opener against Kent St and for the season to never get better.

Iowa- I am going with Iowa as my surprise team in the Big 10. This team got better last year as the season wore on and I like them to come into this season quietly confident. Their non conference schedule is very manageable and will yield 3 or 4 wins. They have gimme's in Illlinois and Purdue and will be in all of their other Big10 games. Look for 8-10 wins for the Hawkeyes.

Ohio St- Yes, the Buckeyes have a great returning team and a manageable schedule but they will drop at least one game during the regular season. Va Tech, Penn St, Michigan and Michigan St all will have legitimate shots at the upset.

S. Carolina - Similar to the Hawkeyes, I like the Gamecocks to surprise this season. The SEC East is just average and they can win against any of those teams. The non conference is not a push over however they will win at least 2 and can win 4 in conference. So 6 wins will be a definite and I like them to win 6 SEC games this year. 

College Football Notes 7/26

Moving closer to kick off and I am getting more concrete win totals in place and circling games for week 1 and beyond,

I will start with some games I like week 1 and then jump into win totals.

The lines are what is posted on pregame.com under Lines &  Odds tab at the moment among several sportsbooks they list out.

These are not official picks yet...will let you know when and if I lock them in. I do wait til training camp starts and see who actually starts, who has any significant injuries, etc.

Michigan +5.5 vs. Utah and under 54.5- Of course you have to have a side in this one. Harbaugh is pretty much a caged animal at this point waiting to attack in this first game. He will have a really solid game plan together and his team will put on a show. The questions on what his offense will look will be there and unresolved and his defense will pick up where they left off last year and keep them in this one.

Utah will not be easily pushed around and they will be prepared. When push comes to shove though they will be conservative and will not take too many chances. I like this game to be decided by a field goal either way with a 23-20 final or so.

Arizona vs. UT San Antonio over 50- The Roadrunners were no joke last year and played many teams tough and will have Zona's attention for this first game. The Pac 12 south is loaded so Rich Rod and the Zona squad will not be messing around and will put their full offensive game plan out their and will score heavily on UTSA. UTSA will not be very competitive but they will score enough points and give up many and this game will fly over 50.

Kent +16 vs. Illinois- I am picking Illinois to have a rough season and it will start right off the bat with this game. Yes, Kent was not good last season but they were ravaged with injury and although they were often getting their brains beat in they still competed. I like them to come after an Illinois team that will not be confident and will have a distracted coach and cover the number.

Stanford/Northwestern over 44.5- I will be in attendance at this one so I will see it up close and personal. NWU generally plays better offense and worse defense at home (that is pretty much anecdotal) and I really expect Stanford to do much better in the red zone. If everyone is sick of saying it then you can be sure that Stanford HC David Shaw is really, really sick of hearing about their anemic red zone offense. I think he will make it a point to do much better this year and will start right off the bat in this one. NWU meanwhile will find a way to keep it close and score as well.

Bowling Green +21 vs Tennessee- I really like this one and will be monitoring BGSU closely as this one nears. Tennessee is poised to have a really nice year and they and the rest of the world is looking ahead to Sept 12 when they play Oklahoma. I like BGSU to take advantage of this look ahead situation and give the Vols a scare. The Falcons played well last year and have a confident team coming back. Don't be surprised if they have the lead at half and UT needs to make a comeback just to get the SU win without any shot of covering the number.

I will be adding more week 1 games but that is it for the moment.

Team Totals- these are from Betonline.com

South Carolina over 6.5 wins -140- I like the Ole Ball Coach or Ole Head Coach to have a bounceback year this season. The Gamecocks, UGA, Tennessee and Missouri are all pretty evenly matched and USC has 6 games that I think they will win and the other games they have a solid chance with no games where they will be prohibitive underdogs. Minimally they will win 7 and will chance to win up to 10.

Iowa over 7.5 wins +100- The Hawkeyes should get 3 wins and likely 4 wins heading into the Big10 schedule. If that happens then Iowa will easily get 4 wins in the Big10 and get the over. This one looks pretty good and I will monitor the QB situation but not too worried about this one.

OK, that's what I got for the moment. More to come.

College Football Notes as of 6/28

Here are more notes...as I piece bits and pieces of information together.

College Win Total Thoughts:

Big 10

Northwestern and Illinois under 6 & 4 wins respectively and Ohio St under 11.5

All of the sudden the top of the Big10 has gotten very competitive with Ohio St, Mich St and Wisconsin becoming national title contenders. Add a rejuvenated Michigan and a Penn St team that is ready to re-join the elite then you have a pretty tough group in both sides of the ball.

In the middle you have Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Maryland, Rutgers and maybe Indiana. These teams can go either way and be a surprise team or can hit some roadblocks and go the other way and have rough seasons.

That leaves Northwestern, Illinois and Purdue. Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald has said that winning a big 10 game is the hardest thing to do and they have been proving him right. This team had been an in the middle team and might still be there however they have not been keeping up in the recruiting game with the elite big 10 teams (due mainly to academics) and whether it is fair or not it is pushing them farther down the pecking order. If the season breaks right, they can win 6-7 games however I think 5 wins is much more likely for them especially if they drop a home against Ball St, Minnesota or Purdue which is not a stretch.

Illinois- this is basically a dead man walking team. They don't have the talent and their coach is outgunned on the overall coaching front as well in the recruiting game. I will not be shocked and will likely be fading Illinois in 3 of their first 4 home games and see them starting 2-2 at best but likely 1-3 and then getting pummeled in the Big10. 3 wins and a new coach for 2016 is in the cards for Illini.

Ohio St- Of course, the Buckeyes have a really good shot at getting to the playoff again however losing a Big10 game is not a real stretch. Yes, they will be a big favorite in every game however they will get everyone's best game and taking the season win total under will be plus money so I think it is worth a shot.

Big Ten games that I like

Virginia Tech +points vs. Ohio St- The opening line came in at +16 and I like those points as Va Tech will have confidence and will not quit at home and should get the cover.

Wisconsin -points against Illinois- This could be the last straw game for Beckman as Wisconsin will roll over the Illini in a half red 1/4 Orange Illini home game.

Minnesota vs. Nebraska- if Minnesota wants to get to the next echelon up then they will need to beat Nebraska at home which I think they will.

Other Win Total Thoughts

Boston College over 5.5 wins. The Eagles were a pretty good 2nd half team last year and overall the ACC is pretty evenly matched. I like the Eagles to get to a bowl game pretty easily this year and blow over the 5.5 including a huge upset against the Florida St. Seminoles!

Oregon under 9.5 wins- Like Alabama the bloom is off the Ducks a bit. The Pac12 is also stacked so winning their home games is not a given. I think a 9-3 or worse record is on tap for the Ducks.

That's all for now...back to the books.

College Football Notes for 2015 Part 1

Wow! Hard to believe my last post was in November. With twitter it is much easier of course to post my plays there so please be sure to follow me @swicatsides

This is a good time of year to get the blog going again. I am not much of a baseball bettor so unless the Cubs are doing well, I am not paying close attention to the hardball action and can concentrate on getting my college football notes together.

I am going to first focus on locking in some college win totals. The official numbers will be out soon. The first team I am looking to fade is Alabama. I think their mystique has been pretty well shattered with the thorough beating that Ohio State gave them. If their win total comes out to 10 or higher, I will be on the under.

Another team I will be fading is Illinois. I got lucky with their win total last year but the wheels have fallen off in the off season and I am confident that Tim Beckman will be out of there.

Not much else at the moment as it is time to hit the books.

College Football Picks 11/22 Part 2

Got quite a bit of action going so I will keep this brief for the rest of my sides.

Top Picks

Virginia +3.5 vs. Miami
Tennessee -5.5 vs Missouri

Lean

Vandy +30.5 vs Miss St


All 3 sides are looking to take advantage of each of the teams in a letdown mode. Missouri is a little different as they are in more of a look ahead mode but close enough. Vandy is probably in the best spot but they are also a bad team so I will tread lightly with them but they should cover pretty easily,

For Virginia, they are in a position to save their coach's job so I do like them to play hard and win the game outright.

College Football Picks 11/22 Part 1

Had a big Saturday last weekend after a slow start thanks to the 5 star plays coming through.

I have another one on tap so let's go!

5 Star Play

Arkansas/Ole Miss under 46

Top Picks:

Cal +6 vs. Stanford
Iowa + 10 vs, Wisconsin

Leans

Boston College +16,5 vs. Florida St
Ohio St -34 vs. Indiana

Writeups:

Ark/Ole Miss- Interesting game here, Arkansas broke through with a win last week against LSU and now has plenty of momentum into this game. Ole Miss is on the outside looking in for the SEC West and is looking to play spoiler the rest of the way. Both teams have stellar defenses and they will be on display today. Picking the winner here will be tough so go down the right path and take the under and sit back to enjoy a defensive battle.

Cal- Big game for Cal in the Big Game. The bears have been on the wrong side of the ledger for this series recently. In college, I tend to like teams that have a dynamic offense going against a stellar defense. With that in mind, I do like Cal to put up points against Stanford and for the Cal defense to slow down Stanford enough to easily cover the six. I will be sprinkling a little on the money line as well for Cal.

Iowa- The Hawkeyes got the best of Illinois (and me) last week. Look for another strong performance against their rival badgers. Wisconsin had an unbelievable performance last week against Nebraska and they will come back to earth in this one.

Boston College- FSU can breathe a nice sigh of relief as they won their last big hurdle right? I think that will be their mindset here and we know BC will not be intimidated. FSU has been playing with fire all year and that will happen again in this one. BC will hit them in the mouth and will sustain the fight long enough to get the cover.

Ohio St- Two sets of thoughts here- either the Buckeyes will pile on and run up the score to impress the committee or they will be flat as they look ahead to more important games. I like the former and believe they will come out smoking. IU's season went down with their qb and they will not be in upset mode here. The buckeyes will take the foot off the gas at some point but I think the damage will be done by then.

College Football Picks 11/15 Part 1

Here we go!

5 Star Plays

Georgia -2.5 vs Auburn
Arkansas +1.5 vs LSU

Top Plays

Illinois +3.5 vs Iowa
Duke/Va Tech over 47
Ga Tech/Clemson over 58
Navy -3 over Ga. Southern

Plenty more games coming up this afternoon on the blog and twitter @swicatsides

Writeups

Georgia- The Bulldogs have been an up and down team and when they are up then they are unstoppable and when they are down then they are bad. With no pressure on them today, I like them to be up and to bring it to Auburn. Auburn had the inexplicable loss last week and will keep attacking on offense however their defense will not be able to keep pace. Georgia will get enough big stops to pull off the "upset"

Arkansas- The Razorbacks are in a position to finally get their first SEC win of the year. The Hogs have been grinding and eventhough every one focuses on their offense, their defense has been really solid especially at home. LSU will be coming in off a tough loss and with their one dimensional team they will be in trouble from start to finish in this one.

Illlinois- The Illini are still in position to qualify for a bowl with a win today and then one more win. Iowa is coming off a big loss. The motivation is in place for Illinois and Iowa will not come in extra motivated. The Hawkeyes are the better team but Illinois will give them their best game will cover the 3.5.

Duke- The low total scares me a little however I do like both teams to open things up. Va Tech has not been able to rely on their defense and will need to score if they want to win. Duke will be happy to get in a shoot out and if they have the chance, then they will not hesitate to run up the score. Both scenarios will get us the over.

Ga Tech- Both of these teams will rely on their strengths and both teams are strong offensively and not so much defensively. Clemson will be in a tough spot to stop Ga Tech's option after playing against many pass first team. Ga Tech in general does not play the pass well. Look for a fun game and the over to roll in.

Navy- Ga. Southern is a fashionable pick but don't fall for it. Navy will be primed for this one. They need the win and are at home. If their is a team that you can rely on to be focused then Navy is it.

College Football 11/8 Part 2

Here are my evening games.

Top Picks

Marshall -26.5 vs S. Miss
Bama/LSU under 46.5
Ohio St/Mich St over 55

Leans

Washington +5.5 vs UCLA
Oregon/Utah over 60

Writeups:

Marshall- Yes, I am going back to the well with the Thundering Herd. They had a week off and will be ready to go where they left off wreaking havoc offensively. S. Miss has shown a few signs of life this year but they will not be any ready to keep up as this game wears on.

LSU- Another week in the SEC and another great game. These teams will get after it and mainly on the ground. Don't look for a lot of drop back passing or too many unsafe throws. This game will easily go under.

Ohio St - These teams have relied on their offenses all season long and I don't see that changing. Although both are "traditional" defensive powers, that has not been the case this year so don't get sucked in to thinking that is going to happen. It will be a shootout despite the cold weather and windy conditions.

Washington- Not sure why UCLA still continues to get so much respect. The Bruins offensive line has been week all year and Washington will exploit that all night. Sprinkle some UW on the $line as well in this one.

Oregon/Utah- The Utes have been pretty good defensively but they will not win by only scoring in the teens so look for them to open it and take some chances. Oregon's defense is just average so if the Utes can get confidence then this game will fly over.

College Football Picks 11/8 Part 1

Hectic week this week so I am going slow amigo with my early picks.

All leans:

Penn St/Indiana under 45
Minnesota $ line +105 vs Iowa
Oklahoma -6.5 vs Baylor
Ga Tech/NC St over 61.5

Back with a full slate & writeup for the PM and evening games.

College Football Picks 11/1 Part 2

Here are the rest of my plays. I am working on a few others that I will post on Twitter @swicatsides

Top Picks:

Indiana +7 vs Michigan
ND/Navy over 54.5
Ga Tech/Virginia under 53

Leans:

Georgia -11 vs Florida and over 47.5
Auburn +1,5 vs Ole Miss

Indiana- The Hoosiers went toe to toe last year with Michigan before failing at the end. This time the Hoosiers will not let this chance to beat Michigan slip away. Indiana's defense is not great but they will be able to hold their own against the hapless Michigan offense. Also a good spot to take Indiana on the money line.

ND/Navy- ND will be getting Navy's best effort here and the Midshipmen will be focused on scoring. ND should be score easily on Navy if they don't turn the ball over. Look for ND to put the game away but for Navy to keep the pressure on and for the over to get there pretty easily.

Ga Tech/Virginia- This is a big game for both teams and both teams will value the ball in game. Looking for several methodical drives with both teams settling for FG's vs. taking a chance on turning the ball over. All in all this game will stay under.

Georgia- the Bulldogs are the better team on all fronts in this game and Florida will need to play their best just to keep it close to the 11 point spread. I am not expecting a stand out effort from the Gators as it is now a matter of time before their head coach is fired.

Auburn- I have been going back and forth on this game and ultimately think that coaching will be the difference here. Last week the Ole Miss coach admitted to relying on his defense to win it and played conservatively on offense and this week he will try to overcompensate and his inexperience in playing in a must win game will come back to haunt the Rebels and benefit Auburn.