Here are more notes...as I piece bits and pieces of information together.
College Win Total Thoughts:
Big 10
Northwestern and Illinois under 6 & 4 wins respectively and Ohio St under 11.5
All of the sudden the top of the Big10 has gotten very competitive with Ohio St, Mich St and Wisconsin becoming national title contenders. Add a rejuvenated Michigan and a Penn St team that is ready to re-join the elite then you have a pretty tough group in both sides of the ball.
In the middle you have Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Maryland, Rutgers and maybe Indiana. These teams can go either way and be a surprise team or can hit some roadblocks and go the other way and have rough seasons.
That leaves Northwestern, Illinois and Purdue. Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald has said that winning a big 10 game is the hardest thing to do and they have been proving him right. This team had been an in the middle team and might still be there however they have not been keeping up in the recruiting game with the elite big 10 teams (due mainly to academics) and whether it is fair or not it is pushing them farther down the pecking order. If the season breaks right, they can win 6-7 games however I think 5 wins is much more likely for them especially if they drop a home against Ball St, Minnesota or Purdue which is not a stretch.
Illinois- this is basically a dead man walking team. They don't have the talent and their coach is outgunned on the overall coaching front as well in the recruiting game. I will not be shocked and will likely be fading Illinois in 3 of their first 4 home games and see them starting 2-2 at best but likely 1-3 and then getting pummeled in the Big10. 3 wins and a new coach for 2016 is in the cards for Illini.
Ohio St- Of course, the Buckeyes have a really good shot at getting to the playoff again however losing a Big10 game is not a real stretch. Yes, they will be a big favorite in every game however they will get everyone's best game and taking the season win total under will be plus money so I think it is worth a shot.
Big Ten games that I like
Virginia Tech +points vs. Ohio St- The opening line came in at +16 and I like those points as Va Tech will have confidence and will not quit at home and should get the cover.
Wisconsin -points against Illinois- This could be the last straw game for Beckman as Wisconsin will roll over the Illini in a half red 1/4 Orange Illini home game.
Minnesota vs. Nebraska- if Minnesota wants to get to the next echelon up then they will need to beat Nebraska at home which I think they will.
Other Win Total Thoughts
Boston College over 5.5 wins. The Eagles were a pretty good 2nd half team last year and overall the ACC is pretty evenly matched. I like the Eagles to get to a bowl game pretty easily this year and blow over the 5.5 including a huge upset against the Florida St. Seminoles!
Oregon under 9.5 wins- Like Alabama the bloom is off the Ducks a bit. The Pac12 is also stacked so winning their home games is not a given. I think a 9-3 or worse record is on tap for the Ducks.
That's all for now...back to the books.
No comments:
Post a Comment