Week Zero and Week 1 College Football Picks

I am easing into week zero with only one ATS bet locked in. My play is Vandy -6.5 vs Hawaii. 

As you are likely aware, Hawaii had a rough off-season and lost a lot of players, and hired a new coaching staff. For Vandy, they spent the off-season listening to insult after insult after suffering through a winless SEC season last year. We often like to look at top Group of 5 teams and say how many losses they would have if they played a SEC or Big Ten schedule. For Vandy, I do the opposite. If Vandy played in a Group of 5 conference they would definitely be a perennial bowl team so taking on a Mountain West team in Hawaii should be a nice match-up for them.

Week Zero live betting

There are two games that I think more sense to bet live than prior to kick-off. 

North Texas at UTEP- This game is lined at -1 at the time of writing. As the line indicates, this game can either way. I like the game to end up being decided by less than 4 points either way. With that in mind, I am confident that I can get +4.5 during the game for both teams. Both teams should have a couple of runs and have a TD lead where I can lock in a nice number and get a decent shot at a middle.

Charlotte at FAU- This game is lined at FAU -7.5. This line seems a little high to me however I want to see some game action before getting involved. FAU has some nice pieces and is at home. Charlotte seems like a live dog though with their QB and coach in place. I feel like we can figure out if this will be a close one or if FAU can pull away easily in this one.

Week 1 Picks

Purdue +3.5 vs Penn St- There has been a lot of talk about PSU being a dark horse to win the Big Ten. That might ultimately be true however I think they will be in for a struggle in week 1 against Purdue. The Boilermakers had a pretty quiet off-season and have been well coached under the current regime. I think they will be up for this game, take advantage of an opening night home crowd and execute their game plan. Penn St might have enough talent to get the win but I don't think that is likely and not by more than a FG.

NCST/ECU over 55.5- We've heard a lot about NC ST this spring and summer and they will be a formidable team. ECU had a nice second half to their season last year and are showing signs of competing for their league title. Both teams are offensive minded and I like them to move the ball and for there to be late scores at the end of each half and to see this one get the over. 

Buffalo/Maryland over 63.5- We have seen Maryland each of the last 2 years come out of the gate and score points. The Terps continue to add talent so I don't see any reason why this year will be different. Buffalo is not the same team as a few years back but they have talent at RB and will do their part to push this one over.

Syracuse +3.5 over Louisville. Babers is supposed to be on the hot seat for Cuse and usually, I am a play against teams with coaches under high pressure. However, I really liked what I saw from Cuse last year after they switched QB's. They finally seemed to play their offense the way the Babers wanted and I think that will carry over to this season. Louisville is a difficult read and they may be a clearly better team however I don't think so. The Orangemen will be stout on defense and I think they will come away with the W.

Week 1 Live Picks

TCU at Colorado- This line has already moved quite a bit for TCU and I don't see it stopping. I think a likely scenario is that TCU gets an early lead and the line inflates to 15-17 points. Unless Colorado really is a trainwreck, I think that is the time to get on the Buffaloes. I think they have enough talent to cover a line like that even if they get off to a poor start.

I am working on some more week 1 sides and will post them into this week and early next week.