Saturday September 11 Picks

Time to head to the week 2.

I have to say it is has been along time since I did not pick a side on a Thursday or Friday night game.

This is in large part to the game 2 being trap week. Week 1 always gives some false starts when teams don’t look nearly as good or bad in the second week.

My theme for this week is to ID the traps and go the other way.

5 Star picks
None this week, getting closer though

Top Plays

Iowa st +13.5 vs Iowa
Ga Tech -13.5 vs Kansas
Air Force -1 vs Byu
Bama -12 vs Penn St
USC -20 vs Virginia

Leans

E. Carolina -13 vs Memphis
California -10 vs Colorado
Oregon -12 vs Tennessee

Just to have a side

Georgia +3 (almost a lean)
Florida St. +7

Writeups

Iowa St- Very quietly Iowa St has been getting steadily better. They got to a bowl game last year and won it. However, this team is flying under the radar and is pretty much and unknown to the fans at large.
Well this is their big opportunity to get on the map. Iowa has played down to their competition and I see Iowa St with all of the edge here. I think it will be a dogfight to the end.

Ga Tech- I see this team as highly undervalued. They really did not lose much talent from last year and they really don’t tend to miss key players because the system is set up for the next guy to step in.
Kansas on the other hand really seems to be lost in the new system. The old adage is that you improve the most between the first week and second week.
Honestly in this case, Kansas has way too far to go to get where they need to be to keep this game close over all 4 quarters.

Air Force- You will know this is a winning pick when AF has the lead and the announcers describes their lead an upset. Perception leads you to believe that BYU is a much higher ranked team. You hear things about BYU but pretty rarely about AF. Well Vegas knows about both teams and made AF a favorite. I am just following their lead on this one.

Alabama- Always a danger to bet the big games as this game has been dissected by the oddsmakers. I guess it would be embarrassing to Joe Pa to make his team a 21 point dog to Bama but I think that is a more realistic spread. Penn St brings a freshman QB into this one. That is very tough sledding. He will have to play an unbelievable game for them to have a chance, anything less will be a blowout.

USC- I am taking them again. I give a lot credit to Hawaii for really taking it to SC with their pass game. I don’t see that kind of effort from UVA on Saturday. They are in the midst of getting used to a new HC and I think that will hold them back from being competitive. I look for a “vast” improvement in Kiffin’s D and an easy cover.

E. Carolina- There was a bit of debate whether Miss St was that good or Memphis that bad last week. My presumption in picking Miss St was that Memphis was that bad. I think this game will help prove Memphis has a long season ahead of them.

California- This is almost purely based on the line. Colorado had a strong showing last week and yet they come out as a 10 point dog. I think that is a pretty nice trap for those jumping on the CU bandwagon.

Oregon- Another tough spread, but I am confident that Oregon is for real. The whole Masoli thing seems to be overrated. For Oregon that was over a long time ago and they have moved on quite nicely. It will be tough for a while but as long as the ducks don’t turn it over, they will cover the spread.