Here is the 2nd half of my card.
Top Pick
Syracuse +17 vs. Northwestern
S. Miss Team over 14.5
Washington St +14 vs. USC
Arizona/UNLV over 61
Leans:
Navy/Indiana 1st half under 35
Tulsa -13 vs Colorado St
Big Game (non official)
ND +5 vs Michigan
Writeups
Syracuse- This is more of a fade of Northwestern's defense which had some amazing pick sixes but really was getting run ragged by Cal. They came up with the big plays when they needed to but it was not a dominant performance. Syracuse came up just short against NU last year and will not be intimidated. This should come down to the last possession to determine the winner.
S. Miss- I had the same side with Wyoming last week. Nebraska's defense is not all that and Wyoming had a lot of success. I don't see the Blackshirts shutting down anyone this year and the Golden Eagles will scratch enough out to go over 14.5 points.
Washington st- The Cougars battled Auburn pretty well in their first game against in a tough environment. They are going into another tough venue however they are playing a USC team that is struggling to find their offensive identity. The Cougars will be able to score just enough points to cover the spread in this one.
UNLV- The Rebels moved the ball pretty well against Minnesota however they had some critical turnovers and special team breakdowns. They should clean those up and be able to score some more points this week. Arizona's offense should be successful as well as they have a scheme and talent advantage vs. UNLV. This will be a fun shootout in the desert.
Navy- This will be a scary one but Navy will hold the ball against the high powered Indiana offense and will not try to get into a scoring contest. 2nd half different story however the first half will go under.
Tulsa- I am looking for Tulsa to have a better bounceback effort than CSU. Tulsa has the talent edge and will take control of this over the course of the game and get the cover.
Notre Dame- Looking forward to watching this one. Too many points to pass up IMO.
Saturday, September 7, 2013
College Football 9/7 Part 1
There are not a whole lot of marquee games this week but no worries, games are always fun to watch when you picked the winning side.
Here are my winners for the morning/early afternoon games. Back around 3pm CST with my part 2 picks.
Top Picks:
South Florida +23 vs Michigan St
Bowling Green -6.5 vs Kent st
Leans:
Cincinnati -8.5 vs Illinois
Middle Tenn +17.5 vs North Carolina
Boise St -35 vs Tenn Martin
San Diego St +28.5 vs Ohio St
Big Games (non official picks)
Miami/Florida under 47.5 and 1st half under 24
Georgia -3 vs South Carolina
Writeups:
S. Florida- The Bulls are coming off a rough, embarrasing loss and will be looking to get the bad taste out of their mouths. Mich St had a ho hum victory and their offense looked pretty average. I wonder can Mich St score 23 points much less cover a spread of 23. The Bulls will keep this one well within the number.
Bowling Green- They had a strong week one performance and I like them to pick up where they left off last week with a notable exception, they will be more confident on offense knowing that their defense can erase any mistakes they make. Kent had an uninspiring win in week one and I don't see them bringing enough weapons to seriously challenge BGSU or covering the spread.
Cincinnati- I put this game in the too easy category. They seemingly have a big talent differential vs Illinois and looks like they should coast. So I will go with the Bearcats but it will be relatively conservative.
Middle Tenn- This team is confident and will be looking to get a high profile win. Their mindset will be to win this game vs. make a good showing. North Carolina did some nice things vs. South Carolina but will be in a bit of letdown mode for this one. They have this game as a win in their mind and will be challenged. Take the generous points.
Boise- The Broncos got stomped last week and will be in a foul mood for this one. Look for a big first half and then for them to hold on in the 2nd half.
San Diego St - Aztecs were another team that had a brutal opening week effort. They will play much better this week. A word of caution is that Ohio St. did not play all that well either so they will be looking for a better effort. This will be a scary one but the Aztecs will do enough to cover the spread.
Big Games:
Miami/Florida- I am looking for an old school fight in this one. Speed on defense will be the key in this game as neither team will be able to score easily.
Georgia- I am not really buying South Carolina yet so I like UGA to win this one at home.
Here are my winners for the morning/early afternoon games. Back around 3pm CST with my part 2 picks.
Top Picks:
South Florida +23 vs Michigan St
Bowling Green -6.5 vs Kent st
Leans:
Cincinnati -8.5 vs Illinois
Middle Tenn +17.5 vs North Carolina
Boise St -35 vs Tenn Martin
San Diego St +28.5 vs Ohio St
Big Games (non official picks)
Miami/Florida under 47.5 and 1st half under 24
Georgia -3 vs South Carolina
Writeups:
S. Florida- The Bulls are coming off a rough, embarrasing loss and will be looking to get the bad taste out of their mouths. Mich St had a ho hum victory and their offense looked pretty average. I wonder can Mich St score 23 points much less cover a spread of 23. The Bulls will keep this one well within the number.
Bowling Green- They had a strong week one performance and I like them to pick up where they left off last week with a notable exception, they will be more confident on offense knowing that their defense can erase any mistakes they make. Kent had an uninspiring win in week one and I don't see them bringing enough weapons to seriously challenge BGSU or covering the spread.
Cincinnati- I put this game in the too easy category. They seemingly have a big talent differential vs Illinois and looks like they should coast. So I will go with the Bearcats but it will be relatively conservative.
Middle Tenn- This team is confident and will be looking to get a high profile win. Their mindset will be to win this game vs. make a good showing. North Carolina did some nice things vs. South Carolina but will be in a bit of letdown mode for this one. They have this game as a win in their mind and will be challenged. Take the generous points.
Boise- The Broncos got stomped last week and will be in a foul mood for this one. Look for a big first half and then for them to hold on in the 2nd half.
San Diego St - Aztecs were another team that had a brutal opening week effort. They will play much better this week. A word of caution is that Ohio St. did not play all that well either so they will be looking for a better effort. This will be a scary one but the Aztecs will do enough to cover the spread.
Big Games:
Miami/Florida- I am looking for an old school fight in this one. Speed on defense will be the key in this game as neither team will be able to score easily.
Georgia- I am not really buying South Carolina yet so I like UGA to win this one at home.
Tuesday, September 3, 2013
College Football Week 1 Observations
I had a nice week one and am looking forward to week 2.
After week 1, I like to step back and try to find out which times might be better than I thought, which teams are worse, which teams are truly good or bad. I also like to look at the teams whose coaches are on the hot to see if they how their teams performed.
Here are some of my observations:
Teams that played poorly that really are not that bad: San Diego St, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, Tulsa, Boise St
For these teams, look for an opportunity to get some inflated points or take advantage of a small favored spread. This week, I like SD St to play much better, same goes for Tulsa. Sometimes a bad loss is a coaches best friend so they can get their teams focused.
Teams that played that may not be all that: Minnesota, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Notre Dame, Ohio St, USC and Michigan st.
For me the jury is still out on these teams. They won their games pretty handily but all showed some flaws. I will be looking for fade opportunities with this group.
Here are the teams that look legit: Baylor, UCF, Texas Tech, Wisconsin, Clemson, LSU and Florida St. Of course you can't blindly bet on these teams but they looked impressive and will steamroll many of their opponents.
Teams that looked bad and are bad: UNLV, Colorado st, Oregon St and Purdue.
I am not planning on betting on these teams unless they turn it around in a big way.
Most of the coaches on the hot seat came through in week one. The notable exception was UNLV which had some pretty bad breakdowns. Look for the Rebels to continue to play tight and to make mistakes as the pressure on the coaching staff mounts.
After week 1, I like to step back and try to find out which times might be better than I thought, which teams are worse, which teams are truly good or bad. I also like to look at the teams whose coaches are on the hot to see if they how their teams performed.
Here are some of my observations:
Teams that played poorly that really are not that bad: San Diego St, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, Tulsa, Boise St
For these teams, look for an opportunity to get some inflated points or take advantage of a small favored spread. This week, I like SD St to play much better, same goes for Tulsa. Sometimes a bad loss is a coaches best friend so they can get their teams focused.
Teams that played that may not be all that: Minnesota, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Notre Dame, Ohio St, USC and Michigan st.
For me the jury is still out on these teams. They won their games pretty handily but all showed some flaws. I will be looking for fade opportunities with this group.
Here are the teams that look legit: Baylor, UCF, Texas Tech, Wisconsin, Clemson, LSU and Florida St. Of course you can't blindly bet on these teams but they looked impressive and will steamroll many of their opponents.
Teams that looked bad and are bad: UNLV, Colorado st, Oregon St and Purdue.
I am not planning on betting on these teams unless they turn it around in a big way.
Most of the coaches on the hot seat came through in week one. The notable exception was UNLV which had some pretty bad breakdowns. Look for the Rebels to continue to play tight and to make mistakes as the pressure on the coaching staff mounts.
Saturday, August 31, 2013
College Football 8/31 Part 2
Bunch of plays for this evening. Here goes.
5 Star Play
Northwestern -6 vs Cal
Top Picks:
LSU/TCU Over 48
Wyoming over 17.5 Team points vs Nebraska
Washington -4.5 vs Boise
Missouri -38 vs Murray St
Leans:
Northwestern/Cal over 61.5
Baylor -28 vs Wofford
Writeups
Northwestern- You can scroll down and see my earlier post about the Wildcats. I think they will be a tough out all season and getting this game at under a TD is a great value. Cal will show some offensive spark but they will not stop NU consistently and their true freshman qb will make plenty of mistakes to make this one a laugh-er. I have the over small as well.
LSU/TCU- I am going a bit contrarian on this one. Both teams are known for their ferocious defenses and rightfully so. This year both teams will be stacked on offense and the QB's for both teams have something to prove from their seasons last year. I am also confident that there will be a defensive TD and a special teams TD which will help push it over.
Wyoming- Although the Huskers claim to be ready to better on defense. I am not expecting them to be dominant. Wyoming will score in the 20's in this one.
Washington- The unranked Huskies will pull the upset over the ranked Broncos eventhough in reality the Huskies are the favorite. The Huskies will use a stout defense and the raucous crowd to get the W and more importantly the cover.
Missouri and Baylor- Week 1 & 2, its always fun to look for a couple of big time mismatches. I have 2 here. Missouri will be taking no chances of not pleasing the home town folks and will run this number way up. Baylor is loaded offensively and will be able to score at will. I am downgrading Baylor a bit as they may pull their starters pretty early in this one but it will not matter.
follow me on twitter @swicatsides
5 Star Play
Northwestern -6 vs Cal
Top Picks:
LSU/TCU Over 48
Wyoming over 17.5 Team points vs Nebraska
Washington -4.5 vs Boise
Missouri -38 vs Murray St
Leans:
Northwestern/Cal over 61.5
Baylor -28 vs Wofford
Writeups
Northwestern- You can scroll down and see my earlier post about the Wildcats. I think they will be a tough out all season and getting this game at under a TD is a great value. Cal will show some offensive spark but they will not stop NU consistently and their true freshman qb will make plenty of mistakes to make this one a laugh-er. I have the over small as well.
LSU/TCU- I am going a bit contrarian on this one. Both teams are known for their ferocious defenses and rightfully so. This year both teams will be stacked on offense and the QB's for both teams have something to prove from their seasons last year. I am also confident that there will be a defensive TD and a special teams TD which will help push it over.
Wyoming- Although the Huskers claim to be ready to better on defense. I am not expecting them to be dominant. Wyoming will score in the 20's in this one.
Washington- The unranked Huskies will pull the upset over the ranked Broncos eventhough in reality the Huskies are the favorite. The Huskies will use a stout defense and the raucous crowd to get the W and more importantly the cover.
Missouri and Baylor- Week 1 & 2, its always fun to look for a couple of big time mismatches. I have 2 here. Missouri will be taking no chances of not pleasing the home town folks and will run this number way up. Baylor is loaded offensively and will be able to score at will. I am downgrading Baylor a bit as they may pull their starters pretty early in this one but it will not matter.
follow me on twitter @swicatsides
College Football 8/31 Part 1
I will be easing into the day with a couple of early game picks with most of my action this evening.
Top Pick
Maryland -21 vs FIU- Maryland was the proverbial hot mess last year with too many injuries to believe. They have had a more stable offseason and training camp and seem to be in much better position heading into the season this year.
FIU has had some decent seasons recently however they are in a rebuilding mode with a new coach and new players. They will pose some dangers for Maryland but the Terps will not be afraid to run up the score in this one as they need to build momentum for an important year for their head coach who is on the hot seat.
Leans:
Temple +29.5 vs Notre Dame- The Domers will use game essentially as a scrimmage. They have several new players to work in and need to get ready for a very challenging schedule. I don't anticipate ND "leaving it all" on the field and to ease back in the 2nd half. Temple meanwhile will value every possession and will be do everything they can to make it respectable. This won't be an easy cover for Temple but they will get it done by the end.
BYU -2 vs Virginia- I can't pinpoint exactly what it is but I like BYU to have a surpisingly good season this year. They seem to be stockpiling talent but have not had a breakout season in a while. Meanwhile, Virginia continues to be ho hum. I don't see the increase in talent that they need to be an upper echelon ACC team and I expect them to lose this one at home.
Be back in a few hours with a big late afternoon/evening card. Also follow me on twitter for any halftime, live betting calls @swicatsides
Top Pick
Maryland -21 vs FIU- Maryland was the proverbial hot mess last year with too many injuries to believe. They have had a more stable offseason and training camp and seem to be in much better position heading into the season this year.
FIU has had some decent seasons recently however they are in a rebuilding mode with a new coach and new players. They will pose some dangers for Maryland but the Terps will not be afraid to run up the score in this one as they need to build momentum for an important year for their head coach who is on the hot seat.
Leans:
Temple +29.5 vs Notre Dame- The Domers will use game essentially as a scrimmage. They have several new players to work in and need to get ready for a very challenging schedule. I don't anticipate ND "leaving it all" on the field and to ease back in the 2nd half. Temple meanwhile will value every possession and will be do everything they can to make it respectable. This won't be an easy cover for Temple but they will get it done by the end.
BYU -2 vs Virginia- I can't pinpoint exactly what it is but I like BYU to have a surpisingly good season this year. They seem to be stockpiling talent but have not had a breakout season in a while. Meanwhile, Virginia continues to be ho hum. I don't see the increase in talent that they need to be an upper echelon ACC team and I expect them to lose this one at home.
Be back in a few hours with a big late afternoon/evening card. Also follow me on twitter for any halftime, live betting calls @swicatsides
Wednesday, August 28, 2013
College Football Picks - Thursday 8/29
We made it! College football is back on. I am ready for a full weekend of sitting on the couch, some pacing and beer.
Starting off with these games on Thursday.
Top Picks
Bowling Green/Tulsa under 49.5- I cited this game in my preseason research. Not much has changed for me. I do like Bowling Green's offense to come out and stifle Tulsa and on the other side of the ball, BGSU's offense will play conservatively and help keep the score down.
Utah St +2.5 ML +130 vs Utah- This is the first game when the lines were posted that jumped out to me. Utah St will be coming in confident and will take the game to the Utes. Look for a standout performance from Utah St's qb Keaton.
Vandy +3, ML +145 vs Ole Miss- A nice home dog to get the balance pointing in the right direction. Vandy had offseason problems however I do not think that their coach will let that distract them. They have a consistent coaching staff and a talented team. Ole Miss had a great recruiting class however I think they are at least a year away from becoming a force in the SEC. The Ole Miss qb is inconsistent and I like Vandy to force a critical turnover when to help seal the win.
Lean
UNLV +13 vs Minnesota- I loved UNLV at +17 but apparently so did the rest of the world. I think this will come down to the last possession to see if UNLV can get a back door cover. I think they end up losing by 10 but I will not be surprised if they lose by 17-20 with a chance to get the back door cover/push.
Will be back with a full Saturday lineup.
Starting off with these games on Thursday.
Top Picks
Bowling Green/Tulsa under 49.5- I cited this game in my preseason research. Not much has changed for me. I do like Bowling Green's offense to come out and stifle Tulsa and on the other side of the ball, BGSU's offense will play conservatively and help keep the score down.
Utah St +2.5 ML +130 vs Utah- This is the first game when the lines were posted that jumped out to me. Utah St will be coming in confident and will take the game to the Utes. Look for a standout performance from Utah St's qb Keaton.
Vandy +3, ML +145 vs Ole Miss- A nice home dog to get the balance pointing in the right direction. Vandy had offseason problems however I do not think that their coach will let that distract them. They have a consistent coaching staff and a talented team. Ole Miss had a great recruiting class however I think they are at least a year away from becoming a force in the SEC. The Ole Miss qb is inconsistent and I like Vandy to force a critical turnover when to help seal the win.
Lean
UNLV +13 vs Minnesota- I loved UNLV at +17 but apparently so did the rest of the world. I think this will come down to the last possession to see if UNLV can get a back door cover. I think they end up losing by 10 but I will not be surprised if they lose by 17-20 with a chance to get the back door cover/push.
Will be back with a full Saturday lineup.
Sunday, August 11, 2013
College Football Research Part 2
Down to 18 days til the first college games!
I have been busy studying up and gathering information and data.
I am going to look at a few teams that are under the radar that can jump up and pull a few surprises and a few teams that I think are overrated and may win their games but I don't think will do well against the spread and I will be looking to fade them.
Finally, I have a few new picks for week 1.
TCU- This is not a truly under the radar team however they fell out of the spot light last year with their QB Pachall checking out of the program unexpectedly. He is back now and from all accounts looks like he has straightened out his issues. With him running the offense, they are a dangerous offensive squad which will complement their stellar defense well.
I like TCU to give many teams including LSU all they can handle. Look for TCU getting points on the road and get ready to take the points.
Baylor- This is a talented team and they have confidence. I like them any time they are getting points.
Bowling Green- The MAC has gotten consistently better talent and teams steadily for the past 10 years. One negative on the MAC is that most successful coaches get better offers and the programs then need to rebuild. Bowling Green has about the most stable coaching staff and they have talent that fits their system. They will be a factor all year in the MAC and will be a team to take with small spreads. A real nice opportunity will be on October 12th when they travel to Miss. St. The Bulldogs will likely be struggling and the Falcons may be able to pull off the road upset.
Georgia Tech- I think this is a pretty big year for Paul Johnson. He has had success early and needs to show that he has the recruiting ability to compete with the elite in the ACC. This year, I think he has the offensive talent to run the option at a high level whereas the last few years he just did not have the right people at QB and RB. The big question is on defense. If the defense does not improve then be ready to take the overs (they will be high). Check the Va Tech game on September 26 to see if they are ready for prime time.
Northwestern- The Wildcats are pretty confident and no one seems to care. They will be a tough team to defend and their defense will be opportunistic. Teams will need to be prepared to play all 60 minutes against them and teams that are not ready to do that from start to finish will be unlikely to cover. A game I'm circling is at home on October 5th against the Buckeyes who will be coming off a tough game against Wisconsin. Grab the points in that one.
Stanford- Yes, they are highly ranked and will have big numbers to cover but don't let that scare you off. They will cover many of their spreads.
On the other side of the coin...
Air Force- As much as I root for this team to succeed, I think they will have a tough year especially against teams that are familiar with their offense. They don't have the clear cut leader at QB and if someone does not step up then their defense will not be able to hold serve and they will have several bad losses. Going on the road to Boise on Sept 13 will be rough.
Mississippi St- It's tough to keep with the Jones' in the SEC. Miss St has been slipping and if they get off to a poor start then the pressure will wear on the coaches and players and the ATS losses will pile up quickly.
Notre Dame- The Irish will win their fair share of games but they will have several inflated lines to deal with. Without Everett Golston they will struggle at the QB spot. They will be a good team but there will be many opportunities to fade the Irish spread wise. Be ready.
Week 1 picks continued...
Bowling Green/Tulsa under 47- Nice week one game. The low total with a usually explosive Tulsa team makes me think this game will go under. BGSU will be stout defensively and will not take many chances offensively.
Vandy +3 vs. Ole Miss- Vandy will be ready for this one. Mississippi can be a dangerous team as the season wears on but they will run into a buzz saw in week one.
Maryland -20.5 vs Fla Intl- The public is on this one and has pushed the spread quite a bit. FIU is pretty much starting from scratch and will struggle to score on a Terps team that has superior athletes.
I am still in research mode so more to come.
I have been busy studying up and gathering information and data.
I am going to look at a few teams that are under the radar that can jump up and pull a few surprises and a few teams that I think are overrated and may win their games but I don't think will do well against the spread and I will be looking to fade them.
Finally, I have a few new picks for week 1.
TCU- This is not a truly under the radar team however they fell out of the spot light last year with their QB Pachall checking out of the program unexpectedly. He is back now and from all accounts looks like he has straightened out his issues. With him running the offense, they are a dangerous offensive squad which will complement their stellar defense well.
I like TCU to give many teams including LSU all they can handle. Look for TCU getting points on the road and get ready to take the points.
Baylor- This is a talented team and they have confidence. I like them any time they are getting points.
Bowling Green- The MAC has gotten consistently better talent and teams steadily for the past 10 years. One negative on the MAC is that most successful coaches get better offers and the programs then need to rebuild. Bowling Green has about the most stable coaching staff and they have talent that fits their system. They will be a factor all year in the MAC and will be a team to take with small spreads. A real nice opportunity will be on October 12th when they travel to Miss. St. The Bulldogs will likely be struggling and the Falcons may be able to pull off the road upset.
Georgia Tech- I think this is a pretty big year for Paul Johnson. He has had success early and needs to show that he has the recruiting ability to compete with the elite in the ACC. This year, I think he has the offensive talent to run the option at a high level whereas the last few years he just did not have the right people at QB and RB. The big question is on defense. If the defense does not improve then be ready to take the overs (they will be high). Check the Va Tech game on September 26 to see if they are ready for prime time.
Northwestern- The Wildcats are pretty confident and no one seems to care. They will be a tough team to defend and their defense will be opportunistic. Teams will need to be prepared to play all 60 minutes against them and teams that are not ready to do that from start to finish will be unlikely to cover. A game I'm circling is at home on October 5th against the Buckeyes who will be coming off a tough game against Wisconsin. Grab the points in that one.
Stanford- Yes, they are highly ranked and will have big numbers to cover but don't let that scare you off. They will cover many of their spreads.
On the other side of the coin...
Air Force- As much as I root for this team to succeed, I think they will have a tough year especially against teams that are familiar with their offense. They don't have the clear cut leader at QB and if someone does not step up then their defense will not be able to hold serve and they will have several bad losses. Going on the road to Boise on Sept 13 will be rough.
Mississippi St- It's tough to keep with the Jones' in the SEC. Miss St has been slipping and if they get off to a poor start then the pressure will wear on the coaches and players and the ATS losses will pile up quickly.
Notre Dame- The Irish will win their fair share of games but they will have several inflated lines to deal with. Without Everett Golston they will struggle at the QB spot. They will be a good team but there will be many opportunities to fade the Irish spread wise. Be ready.
Week 1 picks continued...
Bowling Green/Tulsa under 47- Nice week one game. The low total with a usually explosive Tulsa team makes me think this game will go under. BGSU will be stout defensively and will not take many chances offensively.
Vandy +3 vs. Ole Miss- Vandy will be ready for this one. Mississippi can be a dangerous team as the season wears on but they will run into a buzz saw in week one.
Maryland -20.5 vs Fla Intl- The public is on this one and has pushed the spread quite a bit. FIU is pretty much starting from scratch and will struggle to score on a Terps team that has superior athletes.
I am still in research mode so more to come.
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