College Football Research Part 2

Down to 18 days til the first college games!

I have been busy studying up and gathering information and data.

I am going to look at a few teams that are under the radar that can jump up and pull a few surprises and a few teams that I think are overrated and may win their games but I don't think will do well against the spread and I will be looking to fade them.

Finally, I have a few new picks for week 1.

TCU- This is not a truly under the radar team however they fell out of the spot light last year with their QB Pachall checking out of the program unexpectedly. He is back now and from all accounts looks like he has straightened out his issues. With him running the offense, they are a dangerous offensive squad which will complement their stellar defense well.

I like TCU to give many teams including LSU all they can handle. Look for TCU getting points on the road and get ready to take the points.

Baylor- This is a talented team and they have confidence. I like them any time they are getting points.

Bowling Green- The MAC has gotten consistently better talent and teams steadily for the past 10 years. One negative on the MAC is that most successful coaches get better offers and the programs then need to rebuild. Bowling Green has about the most stable coaching staff and they have talent that fits their system. They will be a factor all year in the MAC and will be a team to take with small spreads. A real nice opportunity will be on October 12th when they travel to Miss. St. The Bulldogs will likely be struggling and the Falcons may be able to pull off the road upset.

Georgia Tech- I think this is a pretty big year for Paul Johnson. He has had success early and needs to show that he has the recruiting ability to compete with the elite in the ACC. This year, I think he has the offensive talent to run the option at a high level whereas the last few years he just did not have the right people at QB and RB. The big question is on defense. If the defense does not improve then be ready to take the overs (they will be high).  Check the Va Tech game on September 26 to see if they are ready for prime time.

Northwestern- The Wildcats are pretty confident and no one seems to care. They will be a tough team to defend and their defense will be opportunistic. Teams will need to be prepared to play all 60 minutes against them and teams that are not ready to do that from start to finish will be unlikely to cover. A game I'm circling is at home on October 5th against the Buckeyes who will be coming off a tough game against Wisconsin. Grab the points in that one.

Stanford- Yes, they are highly ranked and will have big numbers to cover but don't let that scare you off. They will cover many of their spreads.

On the other side of the coin...

Air Force- As much as I root for this team to succeed, I think they will have a tough year especially against teams that are familiar with their offense. They don't have the clear cut leader at QB and if someone does not step up then their defense will not be able to hold serve and they will have several bad losses. Going on the road to Boise on Sept 13 will be rough.

Mississippi St- It's tough to keep with the Jones' in the SEC. Miss St has been slipping and if they get off to a poor start then the pressure will wear on the coaches and players and the ATS losses will pile up quickly.

Notre Dame- The Irish will win their fair share of games but they will have several inflated lines to deal with. Without Everett Golston they will struggle at the QB spot. They will be a good team but there will be many opportunities to fade the Irish spread wise. Be ready.

Week 1 picks continued...

Bowling Green/Tulsa under 47- Nice week one game. The low total with a usually explosive Tulsa team makes me think this game will go under. BGSU will be stout defensively and will not take many chances offensively.

Vandy +3 vs. Ole Miss- Vandy will be ready for this one. Mississippi can be a dangerous team as the season wears on but they will run into a buzz saw in week one.

Maryland -20.5 vs Fla Intl- The public is on this one and has pushed the spread quite a bit. FIU is pretty much starting from scratch and will struggle to score on a Terps team that has superior athletes.

 I am still in research mode so more to come.