College Football Picks 10/6

Heading off the grid later today so here is my full slate. Lot of top notch match ups to keep an eye. Get the DVR set.

5 Star

Penn St -2.5 vs Northwestern

Top Play

Ball St/NIU over 66.5
Florida St/NC St over 54
Oregon Team over 43
Florida +2.5 vs LSU

Lean

Vandy +7 vs Missouri
Purdue +3 vs Michigan
Miami/ND over 53.5

Write ups

Penn St- It's always tough for a team to start out unranked and to be able to break into the top 25. NWU has been playing great ball and cracked the top 25. Unfortunately it will be a quick stay as they will lose their first game of the year. I like this game for 2 reasons. The first is that Penn St is the favorite here eventhough NWU is the higher ranked team. Pretty much the oddsmakers are telling you they are the better team. The 2nd reason is that NWU just does not match up well against PSU. NWU rarely beats this team because Penn St is much stronger on both lines and physically tougher. NWU has closed that gap but not enough to go on the road and win this one. Big play on the Nittany Lions today.

Ball St/NIU- Should be a fun MAC game with both teams leaning on their offenses to get wins. A high total in 66.5 and it may start slow but the TD's will end up coming fast and furious and this will get over easily.

Florida St/NC St- Very tempting to take Florida St -16 here as well but I think NC St will open up the offense today and will do enough scoring to make the over a lock. Florida St will do their part and NC St will throw the ball around to either their team or to FSU and set up touchdowns either way.

Oregon- Taking the over on Oregon's team total. This is almost a 5 star play. Not sure what Washington will bring tonight offensively but unlike the Stanford game their defense does not match up well against Oregon. Stanford missed all kinds of completions and Washington won't get that luck again. The Ducks will blow past the 43.

Florida- Although i am a big fan of the SEC, i have not been picking too many of their games. I feel that I am getting a better sense of the teams now and do like the gators to win this one. LSU is still suffering a hangover from last year and this will show tonight. The Gators defense can handle the one dimensional LSU offense and will do enough on offense to get the win and the cover.

Vandy- I think the Tigers will get their first SEC win today but it will not be easy. Vandy will look at this game as one of their better chances at getting and SEC win as well so they will come in motivated. Take the points here.

Purdue- jumping on the Boilermakers bandwagon here as the home dog.

Miami/ND- Should be a fun event as these old rivals get together. ND is the better game and will get the win however Miami has a speed component that ND has not faced yet and they will be able to put up some points. This game won't crush the over but will get there.