I will have more games tomorrow however make sure to seriously consider pounding these games on Saturday.
It is pretty unprecedented that I would give out 3 five star plays on a single day so don't take these games lightly.
5 Star Plays
BYU -5.5 vs Oregon St (3:30 EST)
Alabama -22 vs Missouri (3:30 EST)
LSU -3 vs South Carolina (8:00 EST)
Writeups
Normally, I don't put the times of the games down but wanted to make sure that you can plan properly for these 3 games.
Also, a wise friend once said "you can't roll out of bed pick all favorites and expect to be Vegas". I wholeheartedly agree with that and will have some dogs tomorrow but these 3 picks were lasered out of the many games tomorrow so don't worry about hitting up all favorites.
BYU- two things going for BYU in this one. The first is that Oregon St is simply overrated. They are a good team but not a top 10 team. Frequent readers will know that in college football and basketball, i am always looking for an unranked team to be a favorite over a ranked team as this has been a consistent moneymaker. This game of course meets that criteria perfectly. The pollsters have Oregon St #10 and the oddsmakers see it the other way; that BYU is the better team. Go with the oddsmakers every time.
Second, Oregon St is playing a second string QB. The game came out BYU -2.5 and went off the board for a few days when the qb situation was unsettled. Once the starter was declared out the game went to BYU -6 and has been bet down a little by those who believe in Oregon. The fact of the matter is that Oregon did not have much offense to begin with and with a back up they will really struggle.
Don't be surprised if this game is close at halftime and even with Oregon having the lead at half. Their defense will stand up for a while. However, BYU will take control so if the game is close at half then double up on the Cougars as they will dominate the 2nd half.
Alabama- speaking of defense...Bama has it and Mizzoo is going to be on the wrong side of this beating. I have had both Bama and Mizzoo as 5 star plays but this one is going to be all Bama. First of all, they are flat out more talented top to bottom. Mizzoo would not have had a chance even if their starting QB was playing and with a back up in, it does not seem fair.
Mizzoo's defense will do all they can and they will play well for a while but the short fields, turnovers and special teams will put them in too many bad spots and they will not be able to contain Bama's defense. Also don't fear Bama taking Mizzoo lightly, Saban will not let that happen.
Another side to take is Alabama team total over 32.5. The Crimson Tide will put up 40+ points. EZ.
LSU- This may be my favorite pick so far this year. First, South Carolina is all that right now, Spurrier has it working, they have tremendous defense, have smoked the competition including putting a sweet beat down on Georgia last week. Life is good for the Gamecocks.
LSU lost last week to Florida, their offense has been nonexistent and they struggled against Towson St. Good god man! But lo and behold, the Tigers are a 3 point favorite but if you ask most college fans they are picking South Carolina.
Taking a deeper look, South Carolina simply does not beat LSU especially on the road. In college football this means something. Look no further than last week. Northwestern was the supposed better team but they do not beat Penn St very often and they lost a game they could have one. South Carolina is not ready to take that big step and win in a hostile LSU environment.
Also, everyone is on USC who is not in the know. Vegas could have made Carolina a slight favorite or a pick but they know the public will be on the gamecocks by giving them points. The books know the action will be on the dog and they will make a killing on this one. i love LSU -3 but it may pay to be patient and wait for the line to drop. It really does not matter though, LSU will play their best game and dominate this one from start to finish.
I have been middling the last few weeks and am ready for a big Saturday. Don't miss out!
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