Friday, November 25, 2011

Arkansas @ LSU + Houston Pick

Top Picks:

Arkansas +12.5 vs LSU
Arkansas/LSU over 52.5

Tulsa +3.5 vs Houston

Writeups:

More potential BCS chaos looms large with the Arkansa/LSU game. LSU has established itself as the top team   and deserves to be in the driver seat for the BCS championship but this will be a real big challenge. First, these teams are familiar with each other and Arkansas is not going to be affected going into LSU's death valley stadium.

Beyond that aspect, LSU's schedule has not prepared them well to play a passing team like Arkansas'. They have shut down their opponent's run game and then overwhelmed their O lines and stopped the pass game. Arkansas will be a pass first team and then run second. This should not be underrated as both the coaches and players will need to adjust during the game to try to stop the passing game.

Another aspect will be to see if LSU's offense can step up and score to take the pressure off their defense. I expect that after a slow start LSU will be able to score. I also like Arkansas to score as well and the over should be pretty easily reached. It is pretty much agreed that LSU has the best defense yet the total is set pretty high so Vegas is expecting a big scoring game as well.

Bottom line take the points here and the over. Don't be shocked if Arkansas pulls the upset so a small play on the money +360 makes sense as well.

Tulsa- I can't say that I have followed Tulsa too closely and have been watching here and there so this pick is based pretty much on the line. Houston is undefeated and now talking about how they should be in the mix  for a BCS championship shot. If they were really worthy then this game would just be a speed bump. However they are a small favorite against a decent Tulsa team. I am taking my cue from Vegas that Houston is going down in this one. If Bama or LSU were on the road against Tulsa, they would be a heavy favorite here.

Take the points in this one.

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