2 winning weekends so far (albeit small last week). Here is #3...
Top Picks
Kent St/Ohio St under 48.5
South Carolina +6.5 and under 59.5
C. Florida/Mizzoo over 54
Leans
Bowling Green +7,5 vs. Indiana
Marshall -19.5 vs. Ohio
Texas Tech +1 vs Arkansas
Kent St/Ohio St- No need to rehash last week's OSU debacle. Kent St is not in a good spot here and has struggled to put up points against mediocre teams. OSU will be locked in on defense and will play a conservative offensive game. All in all that adds up to a yawner and an easy under.
South Carolina- Big spot for the Gamecocks here. They showed some signs of life in the win (no cover) vs. ECU last week. They are in the proverbial must win situation. Georgia had a great 2nd half and put away Clemson and is now considered a NCAA championship contender with a Heisman candidate to boot. USC has played UGA very tough at home during the Spurrier era and I like the Gamecocks to put that experience and confidence to good use in this one.
C. Florida/Missouri- Well, I might have been wrong about Missouri this year as they have looked solid so far. I expect their offense to continue to roll in this one. C. Florida had a rough first half against Penn St however they made a qb switch and played much better offensively. This should be a pretty entertaining game and the over will come in.
Bowling Green- I like the Falcons to cover the number in a pretty wild one. Both teams will score and I imagine throughout this game I expect to see both teams have leads, look bad and good and ultimately the game will be decided by less than six points by either side.
Marshall- This is a nice matchup of offense vs. defense. Unless a defense is truly dominant, I generally like the offensive teams. Over the course of the game, Marshall will get on track on offense and the Bobcats will not be able to keep up.
Texas Tech- I think T. Tech and Arkansas are pretty evenly matched and the home field advantage will make a big difference for the Red Raiders today. I think there is a little bias towards Arkansas since they are an SEC team but their talent is not elite SEC at this point.
Saturday, September 13, 2014
Saturday, September 6, 2014
College Football Picks 9/6 Part 2
Here are the rest of my sides.
Top Picks
Stanford -3
Michigan St +13.5 and over 57
Leans
Notre Dame/Michigan over 57
Tulane +10 vs. Ga Tech
VA Tech/Ohio St under 47
If you did not see part 1, still have Colorado St and E. Carolina on tap as well. Big night.
Stanford- I am pretty confident that the Cardinal is laying in the weeds and ready to pound USC in this one. Not that I think this will be a blowout as USC is very talented however I think there is a big coaching edge to Stanford in this one. The big difference is Stanford is well versed in their playbook on offense and defense and USC inexperience with their new coach will be the difference. Look for Stanford to execute when it matters and get the cover.
Michigan St- I like the Spartans to go into this with the mentality that they can score points against the Ducks and they will not need to rely on their defense. Oregon will score as well however their defense will be the weak link in this one. This should be a fun game and considering taking the Spartans on the $line as well as they will be in the game to the end.
ND/Mich- Both these teams will do what they do bet and that is rely on their offenses to make big plays. There will be enough to get the over.
Tulane- The Green Wave had a nice showing last week on the road and are opening a new stadium. Ga Tech looked only semi impressive. This may be a sucker bet but I think Tulane will play with a lot of heart and hang close in this one.
Va Tech/Ohio St- Hard to see this game going over unless there are several fluke plays leading to TD's. Both teams will bring a strong effort and neither team will want to give the game away on turnovers. I will keep an eye on this and will turn it on in the 4th when the action should start to heat up.
Top Picks
Stanford -3
Michigan St +13.5 and over 57
Leans
Notre Dame/Michigan over 57
Tulane +10 vs. Ga Tech
VA Tech/Ohio St under 47
If you did not see part 1, still have Colorado St and E. Carolina on tap as well. Big night.
Stanford- I am pretty confident that the Cardinal is laying in the weeds and ready to pound USC in this one. Not that I think this will be a blowout as USC is very talented however I think there is a big coaching edge to Stanford in this one. The big difference is Stanford is well versed in their playbook on offense and defense and USC inexperience with their new coach will be the difference. Look for Stanford to execute when it matters and get the cover.
Michigan St- I like the Spartans to go into this with the mentality that they can score points against the Ducks and they will not need to rely on their defense. Oregon will score as well however their defense will be the weak link in this one. This should be a fun game and considering taking the Spartans on the $line as well as they will be in the game to the end.
ND/Mich- Both these teams will do what they do bet and that is rely on their offenses to make big plays. There will be enough to get the over.
Tulane- The Green Wave had a nice showing last week on the road and are opening a new stadium. Ga Tech looked only semi impressive. This may be a sucker bet but I think Tulane will play with a lot of heart and hang close in this one.
Va Tech/Ohio St- Hard to see this game going over unless there are several fluke plays leading to TD's. Both teams will bring a strong effort and neither team will want to give the game away on turnovers. I will keep an eye on this and will turn it on in the 4th when the action should start to heat up.
College Football Picks 9/6 Part 1
Here is my early card.
Top Picks
Alabama/FAU under 50.5
Ball St +20 vs. Iowa
Central Michigan +3 vs Purdue
East Carolina +15 vs. S. Carolina
Colorado St +9 vs. Boise St
Bama/FAU- How often does a team win by 10 points and yet be embarrassed by their performance. That is what happened for Bama and due to the high standard they have set for themselves. Their defensive effort was beat up pretty bad and no doubt that Saban and his coaches are not going to let that happen again vs FAU. I am looking for a shutout from the Bama defense today or at worst one TD which should get the under there.
Ball St- Both Ball St and Iowa had below expectation performances last week. I like both teams to be competitive in their leagues and get markedly better as the season goes on. I think Iowa will control this one but will make enough mistakes giving Ball St the opportunities to cover the big number.
Central Michigan- Purdue played much better than last year in their opener this year however you can see that they have plenty of holes to fill still. C. Michigan will come in expecting to win this game and has the talent to do so. I will be sprinkling some action on the CMU money line as well as I like them to get the victory today.
E. Carolina- this is a game that I had identified in my preseason research thinking that S. Carolina's defense would be a work in progress early in the season and their offense is generally not prolific. I was not expecting the Gamecocks to get trounced in week 1 so I think S. Carolina will be better prepared for this game then what I originally expected. Nevertheless, 15 points is too much to pass up on as the Pirates will come in confident and will put points up and cover the number.
Colorado St- In my world, CSU easily wins the eye test in this game. I think that Boise backers are going on reputation and Boise's past performance. Well I think that CSU will come into this game ready to and Boise will have trouble getting their confidence up. Boise's offense will need quite a bit of improvement if they are going to win by double digits and I don't see that happening this week. This is another game to drop some money on CSU moneyline as well and I will likely double up and take CSU in the first half.
I will be back with more picks including the high profile games.
Top Picks
Alabama/FAU under 50.5
Ball St +20 vs. Iowa
Central Michigan +3 vs Purdue
East Carolina +15 vs. S. Carolina
Colorado St +9 vs. Boise St
Bama/FAU- How often does a team win by 10 points and yet be embarrassed by their performance. That is what happened for Bama and due to the high standard they have set for themselves. Their defensive effort was beat up pretty bad and no doubt that Saban and his coaches are not going to let that happen again vs FAU. I am looking for a shutout from the Bama defense today or at worst one TD which should get the under there.
Ball St- Both Ball St and Iowa had below expectation performances last week. I like both teams to be competitive in their leagues and get markedly better as the season goes on. I think Iowa will control this one but will make enough mistakes giving Ball St the opportunities to cover the big number.
Central Michigan- Purdue played much better than last year in their opener this year however you can see that they have plenty of holes to fill still. C. Michigan will come in expecting to win this game and has the talent to do so. I will be sprinkling some action on the CMU money line as well as I like them to get the victory today.
E. Carolina- this is a game that I had identified in my preseason research thinking that S. Carolina's defense would be a work in progress early in the season and their offense is generally not prolific. I was not expecting the Gamecocks to get trounced in week 1 so I think S. Carolina will be better prepared for this game then what I originally expected. Nevertheless, 15 points is too much to pass up on as the Pirates will come in confident and will put points up and cover the number.
Colorado St- In my world, CSU easily wins the eye test in this game. I think that Boise backers are going on reputation and Boise's past performance. Well I think that CSU will come into this game ready to and Boise will have trouble getting their confidence up. Boise's offense will need quite a bit of improvement if they are going to win by double digits and I don't see that happening this week. This is another game to drop some money on CSU moneyline as well and I will likely double up and take CSU in the first half.
I will be back with more picks including the high profile games.
Saturday, August 30, 2014
College Football Picks 8/30 Part 2
Adding a few afternoon evening sides.
Top Picks
LSU -3.5 vs. Wisconsin
Georgia -10 vs. Clemson
Leans
Florida St Team Total over 42
Louisiana Tech Team Total over 10.5
LSU- I am hoping this line will drop a bit more. This will be a close game and I think the difference will be that LSU's defense will eventually make a play vs. the inexperienced Wisconsin QB and get the cover.
Georgia- I like just about everybody like UGA's talent. Coach Richt knows that his team needs a fast start and a quality non conference win will be big as they contend for a playoff spot. Clemson will get better as the season wears on though their inexperience will show in this one.
Florida St- I like the Seminoles to pick up where they left off last year on offense and roll up plenty of points in this one. Not sure what OK st will bring on offense.
La Tech- I think this team will compete and get a TD in the first half and then scratch out 2 scores in the 2nd half at least.
Top Picks
LSU -3.5 vs. Wisconsin
Georgia -10 vs. Clemson
Leans
Florida St Team Total over 42
Louisiana Tech Team Total over 10.5
LSU- I am hoping this line will drop a bit more. This will be a close game and I think the difference will be that LSU's defense will eventually make a play vs. the inexperienced Wisconsin QB and get the cover.
Georgia- I like just about everybody like UGA's talent. Coach Richt knows that his team needs a fast start and a quality non conference win will be big as they contend for a playoff spot. Clemson will get better as the season wears on though their inexperience will show in this one.
Florida St- I like the Seminoles to pick up where they left off last year on offense and roll up plenty of points in this one. Not sure what OK st will bring on offense.
La Tech- I think this team will compete and get a TD in the first half and then scratch out 2 scores in the 2nd half at least.
College Football 8/30 Part 1
College football is back!
Here are my picks for the early games.
Top Picks
California +10 or 11. Sticking with this pick (see earlier post)
Ohio St/Navy over 53.5
Kent -2 vs Ohio
Virginia +20 vs. UCLA
Ohio St/Navy- I liked the over originally and with the Braxton Miller news, I think the line has been adjusted properly and the over still makes sense. Both teams are offensive focused and the Buckeyes have a big advantage with their O line against the Navy D line while Navy will continue to attack on offense and will break through the Ohio St defense several times to keep this game interesting and to get the over.
Virginia- This has been a popular pick for the the "sharps" and I am jumping on board. This will be a nail biter by the end but I think Virginia will battle the whole game and hang in their for the cover.
Kent- Staying with this pick, I like Kent to stick together and win this one and cover.
Back with more later.
Here are my picks for the early games.
Top Picks
California +10 or 11. Sticking with this pick (see earlier post)
Ohio St/Navy over 53.5
Kent -2 vs Ohio
Lean
Ohio St/Navy- I liked the over originally and with the Braxton Miller news, I think the line has been adjusted properly and the over still makes sense. Both teams are offensive focused and the Buckeyes have a big advantage with their O line against the Navy D line while Navy will continue to attack on offense and will break through the Ohio St defense several times to keep this game interesting and to get the over.
Virginia- This has been a popular pick for the the "sharps" and I am jumping on board. This will be a nail biter by the end but I think Virginia will battle the whole game and hang in their for the cover.
Kent- Staying with this pick, I like Kent to stick together and win this one and cover.
Back with more later.
Monday, August 11, 2014
College Football Season Win Bets
Here is what I locked in for NCAA Football win totals.
Arizona St over 7.5 -115
Baylor under 9.5 even
Cal over 2.5 -140
Illini over 5 even
Missouri under 7.5 even
TCU over 8 +135
Arizona St- I like what they are building in the desert and I like their confidence. They won more games the last 2 years than most expected and they are still an under the radar team.
I think they will do well on the road this year and will end up with 9 regular season wins.
Baylor- Everybody and their mother loved Baylor last year including me. However, teams began figuring out their high powered offense and everyone who is playing them this year will have put in extra video tape time working on how to stop them. They will have several games when they get it rolling but that won't happen 10 times. They will take it on the chin several times in conference.
Cal- Last year was a very humbling year for Sonny Dykes. He had to live with a lot of criticism all off season and I like him and his team to use that as motivation to play better this year. Getting 3 wins of course is nothing to celebrate and I like Cal to come out victorious 4 times and maybe 5 if they get the lucky breaks that they did not get last year.
Illini- I like Illinois's chances for 6 wins. They have 3 easy non conference games and they have some decent home spots. I like them to get 5 wins with 2 games to go and worse case they push on 5. Tim Beckman is a pretty good coach who has taken the high road among heavy criticism. I do expect him to be able to smile by the end of the regular season and maybe just maybe qualify for a bowl.
Missouri- Like Baylor, this team came out of no where and won a lot of games last year. We all know about their tumultuous off season but more than that, they have earned the respect of the SEC so there will not be any Saturdays off. I think they end up at 6 wins, 7 max.
TCU- This is probably my riskiest pick and one reason I am attracted to this one is that it seems high and yet Vegas still threw it out there at 8. Looking at their non conference, it looks favorable. For some reason their BIG12 schedule does not seem as bad as others. I also like their coach Gary Patterson to have figured out enough about the conference to be able to do some damage and be the dark horse this year.
Arizona St over 7.5 -115
Baylor under 9.5 even
Cal over 2.5 -140
Illini over 5 even
Missouri under 7.5 even
TCU over 8 +135
Arizona St- I like what they are building in the desert and I like their confidence. They won more games the last 2 years than most expected and they are still an under the radar team.
I think they will do well on the road this year and will end up with 9 regular season wins.
Baylor- Everybody and their mother loved Baylor last year including me. However, teams began figuring out their high powered offense and everyone who is playing them this year will have put in extra video tape time working on how to stop them. They will have several games when they get it rolling but that won't happen 10 times. They will take it on the chin several times in conference.
Cal- Last year was a very humbling year for Sonny Dykes. He had to live with a lot of criticism all off season and I like him and his team to use that as motivation to play better this year. Getting 3 wins of course is nothing to celebrate and I like Cal to come out victorious 4 times and maybe 5 if they get the lucky breaks that they did not get last year.
Illini- I like Illinois's chances for 6 wins. They have 3 easy non conference games and they have some decent home spots. I like them to get 5 wins with 2 games to go and worse case they push on 5. Tim Beckman is a pretty good coach who has taken the high road among heavy criticism. I do expect him to be able to smile by the end of the regular season and maybe just maybe qualify for a bowl.
Missouri- Like Baylor, this team came out of no where and won a lot of games last year. We all know about their tumultuous off season but more than that, they have earned the respect of the SEC so there will not be any Saturdays off. I think they end up at 6 wins, 7 max.
TCU- This is probably my riskiest pick and one reason I am attracted to this one is that it seems high and yet Vegas still threw it out there at 8. Looking at their non conference, it looks favorable. For some reason their BIG12 schedule does not seem as bad as others. I also like their coach Gary Patterson to have figured out enough about the conference to be able to do some damage and be the dark horse this year.
Thursday, July 17, 2014
College Football Research July
6 weeks from the time of writing this post until college football kicks off!
Here are my initial picks- these are all subject to change once practice starts, injuries occur, more info becomes available, etc
Lines are from Betonline.ag
Week 1
Tulsa/Tulane under 47- two teams that lack dynamic offenses. This is a conference game so I expect both coaches to manage this game through the first 3 quarters and try win in the 4th
Ohio St/Navy over 63- On the flipsid of the above game, this game will have plenty of firepower. Navy will not be able to slow down the Buckeyes and Navy will play all 4 quarters and will break plenty of long runs and do more than their part to get the over.
Kent St -1 vs Ohio- I will have to tighten this pick up but I like Kent St to be a surprise team in the MAC this year. They competed well last year and will convert some more wins and I like them at home to start the season.
Cal +13 vs. Northwestern - Cal needs to come out strong early to avoid another disastrous season in the very tough Pac12. The bears played NU pretty tough last year and will not be intimidated. NU will win the game but 13 is too many points for the Wildcats to cover.
UCLA/Virginia Under 59- This is another game I will need to firm up but I don't anticipate Virginia allowing this game to be a track meet. Virginia's offense was more miss than hit last year and if they want to pull the upset then they need to hold UCLA under 24 points.
Louisville -2.5 vs. Miami- Bobby Petrino despite some very questionable life decisions finds himself in a sweet spot this year. He inherits a team with a defensive mindset that will carry over this year and Petrino will use his offensive genius to spice up Louisville's offense. I think Miami will be easily outclassed on both sides of the ball in this one.
More picks on the way. If you have any picks, please leave let me know.
Here are my initial picks- these are all subject to change once practice starts, injuries occur, more info becomes available, etc
Lines are from Betonline.ag
Week 1
Tulsa/Tulane under 47- two teams that lack dynamic offenses. This is a conference game so I expect both coaches to manage this game through the first 3 quarters and try win in the 4th
Ohio St/Navy over 63- On the flipsid of the above game, this game will have plenty of firepower. Navy will not be able to slow down the Buckeyes and Navy will play all 4 quarters and will break plenty of long runs and do more than their part to get the over.
Kent St -1 vs Ohio- I will have to tighten this pick up but I like Kent St to be a surprise team in the MAC this year. They competed well last year and will convert some more wins and I like them at home to start the season.
Cal +13 vs. Northwestern - Cal needs to come out strong early to avoid another disastrous season in the very tough Pac12. The bears played NU pretty tough last year and will not be intimidated. NU will win the game but 13 is too many points for the Wildcats to cover.
UCLA/Virginia Under 59- This is another game I will need to firm up but I don't anticipate Virginia allowing this game to be a track meet. Virginia's offense was more miss than hit last year and if they want to pull the upset then they need to hold UCLA under 24 points.
Louisville -2.5 vs. Miami- Bobby Petrino despite some very questionable life decisions finds himself in a sweet spot this year. He inherits a team with a defensive mindset that will carry over this year and Petrino will use his offensive genius to spice up Louisville's offense. I think Miami will be easily outclassed on both sides of the ball in this one.
More picks on the way. If you have any picks, please leave let me know.
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