OK- things are starting to get a bit clearer as my research gets deeper.
Going a bit farther into the season I have found a game I like:
October 9th
Northern ILL ATS over Temple- subscribing to the earlier post about the 3 away then play then this game could be a perfect fit. The huskies will return a solid defense that should hold its own. The offense could be pretty good as well assuming they can stay healthy. NIU will be coming off 2 big 10 opponents and then Akron. Assuming they can win 1 or 2 of those games then they will be ready for a big early home showdown vs temple.
Also
September 4th
Another big spread game will be Wisconsin home vs UNLV. Nevertheless, I do like the Badgers to cover the big number. UNLV has been struggling and has gone with a new coach. This should be a good thing down the road however he is scrapping the spread offense and going with a traditional offense. With the first game out against a very stout Wiscy squad look for a rough start for the Rebs. Plus their offense was quite poor last year and will not be in a condition to carry the load while the offense gets it act together.
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