Thanks for checking out my pre-season top situational plays. I believe in taking a look at the whole season and figuring out where a team may be up or down or well or poorly prepared to take on an opponent. The games below fit those categories in various ways.
My analysis intends to look past simply adjusting power ratings on a team week to week.
As many of these games are scheduled well into the season, I will be watching the teams involved to see if my assumptions hold or if significant injuries or player/coach performance does not hold up.
You will see many of the situations involve non Power 5 teams although I still have plenty of those games as well as I tend to find more value with the teams that have less eyeballs on them. However once the season gets going, I will find plenty of spots with the SEC, PAC12 and so on.
I have sorted the situational plays first by the top situations that I like and then by date. The lines listed are taken from the VSIN College Betting Guide and will be updated with actual lines as the season unfolds.
MY TOP SITUATIONS
September 11 Pittsburgh pk vs. Tennessee. There is always optimism when a school like Tennessee hires a new coach after ending the tenure of bad choice. However, this game should be a tough reality check for the Vols. Pitt has a stout defense and we remember when Pitt upset UCF a few years ago. Heupel will be early in his installation of his offense and the Pitt team will be more than up to the task of stopping it. The Vols defense is not likely good enough to stop the Pitt offense either which should make this a long afternoon for Tennessee.
Sept 18 Liberty -28.5 vs Old Dominion. ODU did not play a game in 2020 and is working under a new coach and system. In Liberty they will be facing a steamroller who should take advantage of the undermanned ODU team. Also should be a good spot to take Liberty 1st half as they should open the flood gates and take full control of the game in the 2nd quarter. Jump on this game as soon as the lines open,
Sept 25 Fresno St -16 vs UNLV. Fresno likely will be 2-2 heading into this game and might have at least one lopsided loss which should keep the spread down. Fresno has 18 returning starters and a 2nd year HC that will have implemented his system this season, unlike last year. UNLV will be coming off 2 losses and expect this to be the 3rd and to be in ugly fashion for the Rebels as the reality of their sub par roster becomes fully evident.
September 25 Kent State +11 vs Maryland. Kent State has a high octane offense and should be ready to show it off on the road against a Big Ten foe in Maryland. The value in this one is that Kent St plays Iowa the week prior who likely will put the clamps on the Golden Flashes offense which should allow a few extra points to be added to the spread. We know that Maryland's defense is not at the same level as the Hawkeyes so look to grab the points in this one. The flashes will put on a show in this game and give the Terps fits.
September 25 Georgia Tech +11.5 vs UNC. Georgia Tech is now in year 3 of the Geoff Collins era and will be looking for signature wins. They seemingly have increased the talent level however are still not in the elite of the ACC. With that said, this game could set up nicely for Ga Tech to cover and potentially win SU. UNC has a pretty tough slate of games and could be in for a letdown if they beat Virginia the week before and especially if they are 3-0 heading into this game. Ga Tech will likely be coming off a loss at Clemson and it could be an ugly one giving Tech even a better value.
October 2 Florida -5 vs Kentucky. Kentucky will be installing a new offense with a new or inexperienced QB. UK should be able to manage in their games heading into this matchup however playing Florida will definitely be a problem. Florida will be doing rebuilding of their own offense however their defense will be a strength, especially the defensive backfield. Florida will be able to handle the Kentucky rushing attack and after that, they will more than likely force several turnovers against the Wildcats passing game en route to a solid victory and easy cover.
October 7 Arkansas St +13.5 vs Coastal Carolina. This looks to be a really nice value spot for Ark St. Coastal will likely come into this game with a 5-0 record and receiving national attention. Ark St meanwhile likely will have 3 losses and will not be on too many people's radar. That in turn, should set up a nice value spot for Ark St who will be more comfortable with the new HC's system and a win here would be a program booster. Not saying there will be a SU win for Ark St but likely a solid cover for the home dog.
October 9 S. Miss -12 vs UTEP. This game should be just what the doctor ordered for both S. Miss and for bettors on the Golden Eagles. S Miss should be coming off 2 or 3 losses and will be looking to and needing to get back on track in a big way in this game. There should be plenty of value here for S. Miss as UTEP should be coming into town after a rare win and will run into a buzzsaw on the road.
Oct 16 Hawaii +12 vs Nevada. At times, analysts and cappers get too caught in the revenge angle. I think that will be the case in this game. Hawaii beat Nevada last year and will have confidence heading into this game. All things being equal injury-wise, plan on taking the Rainbow Warriors and the generous points. UH has held their own in recruiting and will not lay down for any team especially a conference opponent.
October 29 Tulsa -15 vs. Navy. This is a really good situation for Tulsa. Tulsa handled Navy’s option attack with ease last season and returns most of their defense. Couple that with Tulsa having a week off and Navy coming off of a game with Cincinnati the week prior and you have a recipe for an easy winner for Tulsa. A stout defensive Tulsa team is not likely to garner the attention of the public so mark this one down now as you will likely skip by it otherwise when we get to the end of October.
THE NEXT BEST SITUATIONS BY DATE
September 3 Northwestern/Michigan St under 45 Both teams are breaking in a new QB and have some new systems to implement. This won't be an easy one as with new QB's comes the possibility of bad turnovers leading to defensive/bad field position however both coaches will likely try to limit having the QB's doing too much in a conference game and limit risk until later in the game. By then, hopefully, time will be dwindling keeping this one under.
Sept 4 UTSA +6.5 vs Illinois. This game could be a SU win for UTSA as they have returning experience with a 2nd-year head coach who can implement his full schemes in training camps. Illinois has better overall talent but with a new coach implementing new systems and coming off a conference game, the Illini could be ripe for an upset
September 11 South Alabama -5.5 VS. Bowling Green. The Jaguars brought in a new coach with previous experience at S Alabama. He should be able to get his defense in place and up to the challenge of stopping the Falcons on the road in what should be a pretty short number against a BGSU team that has a long way to go to reach basic respectability.
September 18 Army -25 vs UConn. This is not a shocker of a pick but still should be a nice value spot on the favorite Army. UConn plays Fresno St and Purdue before heading to Army which means they will have very limited time to prepare for the triple option. Also keep in mind that UConn played zero games in 2020 so not only will they have limited time to prepare for Army, they will have few players that played against a triple option team at the FBS level.
September 25 Tulsa -13.5 vs Arkansas St. This game will be the last of 3 straight games of tough non conference foes. Butch Jones in his 1st year will be implementing his offense and they will be running into an elite defense in Tulsa which should result in a lopsided loss for Arkansas st.
September 18 Wake Forest -6 vs Florida St. This is a nice early season sneaky spot for Wake Forest. FSU will have played a tough opener against Notre Dame and then has Jacksonville St. Wake has 2 fairly easy games to start the season so likely FSU will have a higher public perception. However, Wake will be ready for FSU and has an already underrated team and coach. I am expecting Wake to get the win here in what should be a fairly short spread and possibly as a dog if FSU beats ND in their opener.
September 18 Texas Tech -22 vs Florida International. This is a fade FIU spot. There was a lot of drama in the offseason for the offensive coordinator position where the new Off Cord bolted before spring practice which could only set back an offense without heavy pass production. They have two winnable games however heading to Lubbock will be a tall task. The FIU defense should be formidable however going against a high powered offense with a weak offense should equal a win and cover for T. Tech.
Sept 25 Miami, Oh +8 vs, Army The Redhawks will likely be looking rather unimpressive heading into this game after dropping 2 out of 3. The advantage for Miami will be that they will have a little extra prep time for the option as they play LIU Post the week before Army and will not need to spend much time game planning for that game and instead can look forward to stopping the Army ground attack and sharpening their passing game.
September 25 Rutgers +17.5 vs. Michigan. Both teams will be coming off about successful non conference games so not a lot of edge there. I look back at how Rutgers gave everything that Michigan wanted last season and will not be lacking confidence heading into Ann Arbor. Most Big Ten teams don't have a hard time getting up for Michigan however Schiano will have a bit of extra edge with his time at Ohio St and all the success he enjoyed with that team over Michigan. I think Schiano's confidence gives the Scarlet Knights a big enough edge to take the points in this and get the cover.
September 25 Ohio +12 vs Northwestern. The Wildcats are breaking in several new players and coaches at key positions. NWU has a fairly easy schedule leading into this game and the line will likely be inflated if they handle their business. Ohio runs a solid and consistent program that step up in class every year so heading to Ryan Field won't intimidate the Bobcats. Add that with NWU's historic problems with beating MAC schools and you have a nice spot for a SU upset win for Ohio.
Oct 2 Kent St -18.5 Bowling Green. Kent likely will be 1-3 heading into this game after a tough September schedule. That could provide value in the betting market against a really bad Bowling Green team. Kent is the better team and should cover a hopefully shorter than the power rating line above currently is.
October 2 New Mexico +7.5 vs Air Force. NM could be a nice value team with 14 returning starters a 2nd-year coach. NM has a chance to be 3-1 heading into this game with some momentum. AF beat NM last year 28-0 so we can presume that the NM coaching staff and players will be better prepared to face AF in this game.
October 2. Rice -2.5 vs SMU. Rice likely will be 1-3 heading into this game after playing 3/4 games against Power 5 schools. This should lead to value on the Owls in their 1st conference game. S. Miss will be coming off a game against Alabama which should provide a bit of a let down even if they lose badly or even a bigger let down if they play Bama tough
Oct 2 UTSA -14.5 UNLV. The roadrunners will likely be coming off a loss and will need to get a win over UNLV to get their quest for a bowl bid back on track. UNLV will be coming off a tough stretch of games unlikely will be up for this non conference game on the road.
October 2 Pitt -3 vs Ga Tech. The schedule giveth and then taketh. If Ga Tech does step up and play UNC tough the week before then this will be a good spot for Pittsburgh. Under Narduzzi, the pass defense has been stellar and should have a pretty favorable matchup against the Ga Tech passing game and can then focus on stopping the run and putting up points against what could be a gassed defense from Tech
October 2 FSU -11 vs. Syracuse. FSU will need to get this game especially if they drop games against ND or Wake Forest. I think most people (including me) would like to see Dino Babers succeed however he has a deep recruiting hole to fill compared to other ACC teams and his team will be losing steam rapidly heading into this one. This should be a blow out win for FSU and an easy cover over what should be a reasonable point spread.
October 2 Michigan St -11.5 vs Western Kentucky. The week before the Hilltoppers get a rare opportunity to host a Big Ten team with Indiana coming to town. Hosting the Hoosiers should get the Hilltoppers keyed up and if they are able to hang with IU then this should be a tough spot for them. Indiana will be a much bigger/athletic team than they normally face so its a lot to ask WKU to play another physical team on the road the following week.
Oct 9 Toledo -16.5 NIU. Check on Toledo’s record heading into this game. If they drop a game against Colorado st or Ball st then this could be a "get right" game against their undermanned rival NIU.
October 9 Illinois +16 vs. Wisconsin. This could set up to be a very nice buy low/sell high for Illinois. With the coaching change and challenging schedule, Illinois will likely be looking pretty ragged heading into this home game. Wisconsin meanwhile will have played Penn State, ND and Michigan prior to this game and who can blame them if they take this spot lightly. Bielema will of course have this game circle and have his team ready to compete though so look to grab the points.
October 9 Rutgers +2.5 vs. Michigan St- This could be a nice value spot for Rutgers as they will likely be coming off a bad loss to Ohio St while MSU should be riding at least a 2 game winning streak. Rutgers does not have the athletes to hang with the Buckeyes however the Spartans should be more of their speed. This should be a spot to grab Rutgers on the moneyline as well taking the points as they will be in position to catch an over confident MSU team.
Oct 16 Air Force +10.5 vs Boise. Value play as AF could be coming off back to back losses and will be motivated. Looking at Boise's schedule, they will have played primarily passing teams and will be hard pressed to be ready for the option and an AF team looking to be a factor in the Mountain West.
October 16. Miami, Oh -14.5 vs Akron. Akron will continue to struggle this season coming off a one win season in 2020. The one win last year was a win against Bowling Green and this game will be off the 2021 rematch against BGSU for Akron. Expect them to be in a let down mode either off a win or loss as they head to a MAC contending Miami, Oh who will be more than ready to deliver a beat down to the inferior opponent.
October 16 Pitt +4.5 vs VA Tech. This is another favorable spot for Pitt. They will be coming off a bye week and Va Tech will be coming off Notre Dame. The ND game will be an all out effort for the Hokies and they have had trouble matching up with Pitt under Fuentes and I anticipate that trend will continue and Pitt gets the road win in this one.
Oct 30 NC State -7 vs Louisville- This could be a good spot for the Wolfpack if they are rounding into form. Both teams have tough schedules heading into this match up. NC State HC Doeren does have a track record of having his teams play better as the season wears on and Louisville could be headed in the opposite direction as they head into November and the pressure is on both teams.
November 13 Michigan St pk vs. Maryland. As with most power 5 teams, the conference schedule is a gauntlet. Maryland has a really tough stretch (Iowa, Ohio St, Minn, Indiana, Penn St) and I believe by the time they get to MSU, they will be out of gas. Meanwhile MSU has a tough schedule but not nearly as difficult and they should be steadily improving with a 2nd year coach who will be able to implement much more of the playbook on both sides of the ball. This and the home field advantage should lead to a comfortable MSU victory.
