College Football Picks 10/20 Part 2

Time to step it up a bit, here is my afternoon slate.

Top Pick

Navy -2.5 vs Indiana

TCU -1.5 vs T. Tech

BYU +12.5 vs ND and over 41

Leans

Michigan -8.5 vs Mich St

Buffalo +9.5 vs Pittsburgh

Writeups:

Navy- Using a bad pun, Navy has righted the ship after a rough start. They have this game well scheduled. Indiana is coming off a tough loss in that they had a chance to actually beat Ohio St and really stepped up and played well. Now they need to go on the road, to a non conference game and play against an option team. If the Hoosiers coaches can get this team ready for this one, i will be shocked. Indiana will put up some points but they will not be able to handle the option over the course of the game and their offense will not keep up with the Navy ground game. Lay the small number and cash in a big play.

TCU- The Horned Frogs had a blip against after their QB left the program but have recovered from that. they have a very favorable matchup in this game. TCU has their trademark nasty defense and they will be able to hold T. Tech in check in this one. The Red Raiders had a break out game last week however they are not a truly good offensive team. TCU's offense won't light up the scoreboard but their offense will be put in good positions throughout the game and will score enough to win the game and cover the 1.5.


BYU- The cougars laid a big time egg last week and their vaunted defense got shredded while ND continued their winning ways and stellar defense. I have seen this situation many times over the uncountable number of college football games I have watched. A team rises to heights that they have not been before and then quickly stumbles. Now this does not happen every time but I do see ND coming into this game very overconfident against a very motivated BYU team.

BYU was in a somewhat similar spot last week. Their defense had been tremendous and they were playing against an unproven QB and they were simply not prepared. I put that on their coaching staff and coaches rarely let that happen two weeks in a row. BYU will come to play in this game. ND though does have a superior team and will show up in this game. Look for BYU to come out strong, get the early lead and ND will adjust and eventually seize control. In the process, the game will go over 41 and BYU will cover the spread.


Michigan- The Wolverines have been on the wrong side of this matchup recently and finally have the better team. Offensively, UM has not broken out against a good team and this will be a good test to see if Denard Robinson is ready to return to form. The big difference in this game will be MSU's inability to throw the ball. UM will be able to handle the run well enough to get their defense off the field and Michigan will be able to take advantage of field position to get an advantage and force Michigan St to throw the ball which will not go well for the Spartans. This won't be a pretty game but Michigan will pull away slowly and cover the 8.5.

Buffalo- Taking this game as they have the schedule trend I like, home after 3 away games. This worked with E. Carolina earlier in the season. I am downgrading this to a lean though as Buffalo was not competitive in their 3 losses and not sure if the home crowd will be all that inspirational. So I am going with the trend but treading lightly.