2 good games on the docket today.
Champs Sports Bowl
Top Pick ND/Fla St under 46.5 and Lean ND +3.5
Alamo Bowl
Lean Baylor -10 vs Washington
Champs- This might be the best of the non BCS bowl games as both teams are hungry for some redemption after not meeting expectations during the season and both coaches are feeling the pressure as well. Although both head coaches are offensive minded I do like the under in this one. Neither team's offense is quite "there" yet and have some pretty obvious weaknesses. Fla St has not been able to run the ball well and ND has not gotten the QB play they need to run Kelly's offense the way he has designed it.
With that in mind, I do look for both coaches to try to minimize turnovers and not put their defenses in bad spots. The game should heat up during the 2nd half but I think the first half especially will be played at a conservative pace and the game will go under.
For the winner, I think it will come down to who makes the critical mistake in the 4th quarter. That can go either way and this game will likely come down to a field goal attempt and with FSU's history on field goals I do like the Irish to cover the spread and pull out a squeaker somewhere around 19-17.
Alamo Bowl- I should love the Baylor Bears here, they have the Heisman winner, a great offense and are playing a Washington team that was not very good during the season and never really stepped up in a down year for the PAC 12. However, Baylor's coach has been kinda brutal in bowl games and I am not sure that I trust him to have his squad ready to blow out a lesser team.
Baylor should win this game by 3 TD's or more but something tells me that UW will have a chance to get a back door cover in this one so I am treading lightly.
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